Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bob21
Quote:
Originally Posted by
redietz
Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.
Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.
So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.
Excellent post redietz! This is the same way I read the stats for this virus. It looks like it’s going to be about 10 times deadly than the flu, which is bad but it’s no Armageddon.
The way things are shaping up it doesn’t look like I’ll need to go to my back up plan, so Kj it doesn’t look like you’ll need to save me that spot in your bunker.
Well, the only problem with the projections is that if you have a 1% mortality and 100 million people get it, and those are the low end figures, well, you can do the math. Not Armageddon, but life is not going to be the same.
Plus it's likely to come back. Plus there are multiple strains, so (as AndrewG said, I think) COVID-20 might be just around the corner.
If there are multiple waves, and there will be given the slipshod nature of state-patching precautions, we better hope there aren't mutations. Because each go-round will be the Darwinian equivalent of casino churn.