What is your daily theoretical?

We all know that casino comps and offers and free play promotions are linked to your daily theoretical -- meaning how much you bet, and how much the casino expects they will win from your bets.

But does the casino have your daily theoretical correct?

Earlier today I was on the phone with my host at Caesars and I was complaining about the big drop (by about 50%) in offers I received for January and February 2015.

My host explained that my daily theoretical dropped dramatically and while looking at my play history on the phone my host mentioned in particular my visit to Caesars Palace on July 19 when I "bought in" to a game of roulette for only $100 (one hundred dollars) and played just 20 minutes with a $48 loss.

"That really killed your daily theoretical" my host informed me. "That small amount of play for one day actually cut your daily theo in half."

But -- there's a problem. I did not play roulette at Caesars Palace with a $100 buy in. Nor did I lose $48 over a 20 minute period. You see -- I wasn't in Vegas at all on July 19 and so I never played roulette. (I can't remember the last time I played roulette but I think it was about ten years ago.)

That's when my host realized that somehow another player's "play" found it's way onto my record and I was being penalized for the error.

My host is now going to the marketing department to find out how to "undo" the error. But my host also said this could be a big problem. I will keep you posted.

After we found that error, we went through all of my other visits for the year, and noted that they all appeared to be in my normal range of play. But as my host pointed out JUST ONE visit with low play literally killed my "daily theo" and cut my offers by about one-half.

Wow, that's awful.

They must have mis-entered that person's player card # and accidentally entered yours.

But it's really terrible that you can't just have a casual visit under the current system and have fun with low limit roulette without it penalizing you.

Now you see why I prefer just being overcomped and not worrying about this BS.

If you want to play for low limits and "have fun" you don't give your player's card.

I know players who watch the clock and when a new "casino day" stars they ask the floor person at the table game they are playing to "close them out" so that they don't show up on the next casino day for a short/small day.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

If you want to play for low limits and "have fun" you don't give your player's card.

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Alan

The problem with that is most of the pit critters know me by name and will just enter the information without me knowing.

I have been using the gift cards for use at CET properties when I have been staying at the Cosmo. One trip I wanted to take a small group into the Diamond Lounge without triggering a "trip" so my host walked us in without using my card.

Also

It is your MDV (Marketing Daily Value) that offers and free play are based. MDV is similar to ADT but also takes into consideration on how offten you are in the market and how much you have been comped in the past.

Here is a link to a post on another board that someone recently posted.

http://www.vegasmessageboard.com/for...ffers-From-CET

I read this info on a website last year but have lost the link.

Interesting.

I had not heard the term MDV before, but I knew that something like this existed. However, the post you linked gave me further information that I did not have before, and I probably did underestimate the effect of redeeming offers on your future freeplay, even for an active player.

(It does seem I was mostly correct about staying in rooms not affecting your offers much, as the "real cost" for non-suite rooms that are figured into your redemptions is fairly low.)

Anyway, to put it simply, the MDV calculates your overall value to them on a given trip -- theoretical loss minus value of average comps redeemed. These comps include freeplay, hotel stays, and basically anything else that normally costs money which you get for free. It includes both comps generated by the system (or included in the normal TR benefits) and ones given by your host. I don't believe it includes RC redemptions, but perhaps I'm wrong about that. It does NOT include the Seven Stars annual cruise, as that's simply a marketing partnership. I am not sure if it includes the cost of sending you on your Seven Stars annual trip.

This would explain why I am considered so ridiculously overcomped, and why I get the absolute bare minimum when it comes to freeplay/benefits/offers etc.

- I stay in a ton of hotel rooms in a given year

- I take my annual trips

- I use every decent freeplay offer I get, provided it's worth the trip

- I use my annual Seven Stars dinner

- I even take those 2 free show tickets they give away on most months

So it my play, which barely earns Seven Stars every year, doesn't even come close to covering all of this. And it makes sense, because the theoretical of video poker is fairly low, even when earning 2500 base tier credits.

So Dan do you still think you will be overcomped in the future or have they caught on to you and now you will be undercomped?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

So Dan do you still think you will be overcomped in the future or have they caught on to you and now you will be undercomped?

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I can't be undercomped. This is because I am always guaranteed the basic Seven Stars benefits, provided I play enough to stay in the program.

Will I get far fewer offers than you? Yes.

But I use enough of the Seven Stars perks to where it's worth it to me to earn Seven Stars just for that reason alone.

If they degrade the Seven Stars program, though (such as kill the guaranteed free room benefit), then I will be done with it.

Dan I think that's a fair appraisal. You will get in the future whatever the minimum is. Too bad you won't be overcomped. I think you enjoyed that.

I don't know my "theo", but I expect it's good, with earning DIAD on September 1st (60% vp / 40% slots).
Just this month, I recieved $3000 FreePlay at Rincon, and just now in the mail, I got a package for Harrahs New Orleans (Free Roundtrip Airfare for 2, plus hotel)
I would hope my theo is decent in Vegas, to establish a nice MDV there.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Aaron

Alan

The problem with that is most of the pit critters know me by name and will just enter the information without me knowing.

I have been using the gift cards for use at CET properties when I have been staying at the Cosmo. One trip I wanted to take a small group into the Diamond Lounge without triggering a "trip" so my host walked us in without using my card.

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You are so correct. I used to meet my host at the end of each trip and hand her the bill for airfare for reimbursement. On one occasion, when I gave her the bill, she said my average was too low on that trip and she could only reimburse me for one ticket (my wife was with me). I asked how that could be as my average bet in craps is $500 or more and I had played 6-8 hours per day. Well---it seems that when I wanted to just chill awhile and play $25 blackjack, it killed my average. She told me to not use my card when I played at lower levels and grudgingly paid for the whole airfare.

The problem as you say, is every time I walk up to a table I am greeted--Hi Mr. S--etc. So I then have to tell them not to record my play. I have explained to them why and they think it's crazy too.

They could fix this idiotic flaw in the system by simply taking highest play of the day when computing your average bets.

This would allow people to recreationally play low limit games, without hurting their average bet in their "main" games.

It should also ignore anomalies in limits, even if you don't have other high limit play to offset it. So if you haven't been seen in awhile, but show up one day and play low-limit roulette, it shouldn't assume that you will be a low limit player from now on. It should ignore that, unless you establish a pattern of playing mostly lower limits (or staying and not playing at all).

I don't know why they don't do this. It's idiotic that playing $5 roulette hurts your average more than not playing at all.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

It's idiotic that playing $5 roulette hurts your average more than not playing at all.

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I don't think anyone would disagree with you about this. But an "average" is in fact, an average. And the system they use utilizes the "average."

What's more, this "bogus" session when I supposedly played did NOT involve a hotel stay. My host said to me that according to the computer file I simply was a "drop in" who played roulette for 20 minutes with a buy in of $100. Even though no hotel or other comps or "costs" were involved they still used this bogus record of play to cut my "average theoretical" in half and that slashed my offers.

By the way, I have asked many times why my offers aren't "better" considering that I am not a comp whore. In fact, I sometimes don't use any offers when I play as there are times when I actually drive up to Caesars, play for four or five hours, and then drive home without taking a hotel room. The answer I get is that it doesn't matter what "comps" you take or ask for -- and the only thing that matters is how much you play.

As crazy as it seems this is their system.

I told this story before: Before Total Rewards there was a craps player at Caesars who had a budget of $20,000 for the weekend. But in just the first 90 minutes or two hours of play he lost the entire $20K. At the end of the weekend Caesars refused to comp his stay because he didn't play the "required" four hours per day to be RFB. Yes, he protested and appealed, and higher-ups comped his stay. But that system was also ludicrous which required four hours of play per day and overlooked that the guy dropped $20,000 in two hours.

We can't reinvent their wheel, because, it's their wheel.

I have to use junkets to get to the casinos and at times they leave quite early so I don't have much time at the machines. That, obviously, kills my daily average. I am told that even if one did not play on the last day if s/he used any of the company's services, that day would be figured in. On the other hand, I do have a great host (I know there are those who will call me all kind of offensive names) who argues my case and has often gotten the company of be more lenient and flexible with the system. For instance, I am going to New Orleans the day after Thanksgiving and my host has arranged with Harrah's New Orleans to pay for my and my wife's air fare. She also got the folks at Tunica to give me $650 in free play that they were denying because of some technicality and an unlimited meal plan in which all of our meals are automatically paid for. Oh yes, my wife saw a couple of really nice blouses while we were there -- no problem. She wore one on the home flight.

This "theoretical" that's being tossed around actually refers to the amount it costs every one of you who choose to be infatuated with using "hosts" in order to create a feel-good environment for all of your losses.

Does no one realize that you could take all these trips and get all sorts of other kinds of decent entertainment, save lots of money, and buy all those fabulous "free gifts" if you simply paid for it all and didn't play unless and until you learned how not to lose?

It is and will always continue to be to me, absolutely amazing that people cannot see what these casinos do to those who either chase or play for slot club status, or play enough to continuously lose a small fortune every year. No wonder Caesar's has made it this long.

Rob, you might appreciate this: Today, I was asked if I would try for 7 Stars again next year. My answer was: I do not play for comps. I play for fun and recreation and hopefully to win money and I will take the comps that come along. But I think it is important to know how the casino views your play because if "Casino A" values you better than "Casino B" than it is wise for you to play at Casino A.