EV for AP's

During this discussion of EV (expected value) in the "start to 2018" thread, it occurred to me how EV and variance is very different for a blackjack card counter than for you machine-type AP's, like mickeycrimm, RS, Axelwolf, Monet and others. (I don't know exactly what MaxPens' AP play consists of)

You guys have it made! :rolleyes: Negative variance for most machine play would seem to be actual winnings of less than expectation. BUT STILL WINNINGS!

Negative variance for card counters very often involves, actual losing....periods in the red, before you show a profit.

Negative variance for a card counter is taking a step backwards before you take two steps forward, while negative variance for machine AP's is taking half a step forward when you were expecting to take a full step. (No step back).

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

During this discussion of EV (expected value) in the "start to 2018" thread, it occurred to me how EV and variance is very different for a blackjack card counter than for you machine-type AP's, like mickeycrimm, RS, Axelwolf, Monet and others. (I don't know exactly what MaxPens' AP play consists of)

You guys have it made! :rolleyes: Negative variance for most machine play would seem to be actual winnings of less than expectation. BUT STILL WINNINGS!

Negative variance for card counters very often involves, actual losing....periods in the red, before you show a profit.

Negative variance for a card counter is taking a step backwards before you take two steps forward, while negative variance for machine AP's is taking half a step forward when you were expecting to take a full step. (No step back).

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I have no idea what you are talking about. Depending on the situation a machine player will have more variance than a BJ player. A major difference is machine player will get out significantly more hands than a BJ player. A machine player can play 400k hands+ and still be losing 2%+ with an advantage that's well over that of a card counters EV.

I don't know what the chances are that a good card counter could go that many hands and still be losing. I bet its significantly less than machine players chances.

Obviously, there are some situations that come around for machine players that are near impossible to lose, even in the short term.

There are also times where one player can lose 10k+ in less than a few hours.



You are not the only one that has counted cards in that group you mentioned. I'm not sure how much CC MC has done but everyone else you have mentioned had done a fair share of it.

If I count all the hands of BJ I have played(counting and noncounting) including online and Video BJ, it's very possible I have played more hands of BJ than you. I have played 8 to 16 hours a day cranking out 800 to 1k hands per hour for weeks at a time.

Well, good then...that makes me feel better. :rolleyes: Why isn't Alan imposing 'stop limits' on you guys? ;)

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Well, good then...that makes me feel better. :rolleyes: Why isn't Alan imposing 'stop limits' on you guys? ;)

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Because there is no such thing as a stop limit. Anyone who is winning would utilize a rising stop loss. You still haven't looked it up yet?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Well, good then...that makes me feel better. :rolleyes: Why isn't Alan imposing 'stop limits' on you guys? ;)

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I dun know, I guess we have never given him the Charlie Sheen version of winning. :rolleyes:

Just remember, we/you are arguing with a guy about gambling stop wins]/stop losses and money management from a guy who claims he saw someone roll 18 yo's in a row. AND HE DIDNT BET IT ONCE. He just stood there with a big dopy look on his face and walked away without so much as a hesitation(He didn't even ask them to save the video or call Gaming, or mention it online soon after). He never assumed something could have been influencing the dice.

He claims his son hit 5 RF's in 24 hours and still lost.

He apparently hit two 100k Royals with very little invested AND GAVE IT ALL BACK(within a year?) Yet, he has had access to people and solid information about AP.

He claims he knows the only 3 people that can influence the dice who can overcome the HA.

he thinks loss rebates and free play are for the birds.
I could go on but,
HE'S FRIENDS WITH ROB SINGER(need I say more?)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

During this discussion of EV (expected value) in the "start to 2018" thread, it occurred to me how EV and variance is very different for a blackjack card counter than for you machine-type AP's, like mickeycrimm, RS, Axelwolf, Monet and others. (I don't know exactly what MaxPens' AP play consists of)

You guys have it made! :rolleyes: Negative variance for most machine play would seem to be actual winnings of less than expectation. BUT STILL WINNINGS!

Negative variance for card counters very often involves, actual losing....periods in the red, before you show a profit.

Negative variance for a card counter is taking a step backwards before you take two steps forward, while negative variance for machine AP's is taking half a step forward when you were expecting to take a full step. (No step back).

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It's not that we don't experience negative (losing $$$) variance, but.....idk, it's a lot different, IMO, for machine play vs CC blackjack.

Only considering good & strong plays, it seems like the main "negative variance" thing is to get shut down by the casino -- which is usually something like offers getting rescinded or offers drying up much faster than anticipated, or just flat out getting scammed by the casino because they offered X if we do Y, we do Y, then they're no longer honoring to give out X.

Blackjack has a lot lower variance than video poker. I learned a little about counting but never did anything with it. I wasn't getting any heat playing machines and decided to keep it that way. The games I play in Montana don't have any real negative variance. A bad day in Montana is only making a hundred dollars. But I'm limited as to the amount of money I can make. The sky is not the limit. It's fluctuated from $300 to $600 a day over the past ten years, depending on games available, but I currently play off about $400 a day in expectation and rarely have a losing day. The edges are just to big. I'll probably put up one of the games that has been pulled off the machines here to give you guys an example of how strong a play can be percentagewise. That is, when I get a chance.

Edit: While I play off $400 a day in expectation that is a working day. I can't get that much expectation 365 days a year. But I can get it for about half the days in a year

In lay-man's terms (since I can't say what it is exactly in a mathematical formula type way) -- variance is the difference between EV and actual result. Also have to look at N0 and game speed. I can play VP 10x faster than BJ (1000 HPH vs 100 HPH). And the advantage.

If I'm playing JOB with 10% cash back worth $500/hour and a BJ player is playing with a 1% edge also worth $500/hour.

After about 2 hours, my chance of losing would be pretty small, and if I were losing it'd be by a small amount. I'd most likely be somewhere between break even and +$2,000.

After about 2 hours of the BJ player playing, he could be up or down $10k, maybe more. Most of the time he'd probably be +/- $5k (I'd think?).