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Question to redietz, monet, and others who don't want to turn this into the usual trolling thread. I stand to win a nice sum if Gonzaga wins the Tourney. Clearly, I have to take Baylor plus the points to either lock in a win or, if I get lucky, middle it and get both. My question is what percentage do I hedge?
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Originally Posted by regnis
Congrats!!
At what odds do you have Gonzaga?
If you've got +400 or thereabouts, I would just balance it out by taking the points or completely balance it out on the moneyline. Take the same profit either way. I love how Gonzaga plays, but they are going to have to be at the top of their assassination game to handle Baylor. I thought the Zags would have had a tough time with Michigan just because of Michigan's size. Baylor is almost as bad. And by size, I don't mean strictly height; I mean muscle, too.
It's kind of what Cronin was implying in the press conference after the game, that Gonzaga is tactically brilliant. He was kind of hinting that while Gonzaga is talented, they ain't one of those old UNLV or Duke teams with multiple NBA starters on the squad.
Oh yeah, I told my girlfriend you have Gonzaga. Her advice?
"Weenies hedge."
Yeah, if I'd taken that UCLA at 90-1, I was going to have to seriously ignore her for a week.
I have that national contest where I will finish second and which is too small to even consider. But I also have a smaller bracket worth a fairly substantial amount where i will win if Gonzaga wins. Then on blind luck I was in a substantial pool where you draw your team out of a hat. I have been playing in this pool for years. I seemed to always get Villanova other than the year they won. I just had the guy running the pool draw for me and was shocked to get Gonzaga. So no points--no lines. I have Gonzaga straight up for a nice score. My thought is to go 40% Baylor plus the points but I am open to suggestions.
LOL--in craps and horses I never hedge. But I am out of my element here.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
That 40% sounds good to me. Good luck. I love the way Gonzaga plays. They play the way every coach wishes their team would play. They have individual defensive deficiencies (AKA they look like me playing defense), but they are very organized in how they respond to penetration. Very consistent. They know exactly what they are trying to on defense every time something happens. They have a response plan. This is why Barkley loves the way they play defense -- he knows what he's looking at; he wasn't exactly stellar on defense himself.
Baylor's wicked and big. You know, against Syracuse, the Orange center caused a bunch of point blank misses by Gonzaga. Zags have to make those point blank shots or draw fouls.