Official PredictIt thread.

Anyone else play with PredictIt? I don't take it seriously but put 1k on there after Bernie had his heart attack. Bet against him then started to feel the pain at 10% loss, so I flipped to betting on Bernie & Biden. Now i'm up about 20% but had lots of small hedge bets that are going to likely be losses. I've just about sold off every Biden position. I thought he'd be a safe bet.

Not claiming to be a +EV bettor here. I do dumb shit all the time but it is fairly easy to make money if you want to dedicate your time. Chasing Bernie up and down tonight you could have probably made 50% on your money without severe risk. Once it starts looking dicey just sell the positions.

Anyone else have interest in PredictIt? Any of your markets that are favorites? I like the caucuses because lots of events and data out there to read and make opinions off. Lots of the bets are year long to resolve.

I made a mistake having open purchase orders at a lowish price on the "Next Democrat to drop out of race.". So these types of markets that are not settled at a given time, you literally can't leave open buys on low prices. Anytime the event becomes known (pre-settlement), all active traders sell off the losers right into people like myself. LOL. oops... :cool:

There were multiple 20 point swings on Sanders/Buttgieg multiple times without any new data released. Finally it settled out. I was going to sell my Sanders position at .77 early in the night then the last time it dropped from .75 it never went back.

I missed on most of the swings. Also the juice is awful at 10% on winning sells but I am not sure what happens when the market actually resolves. Given that they are not booking games, the 10% is actually robbery, but what are you going to do? For a dude not into sports, politics is the next best thing.

So when the Iowa caucus market stopped moving I decided to go around and buy up cheap Buttgieg positions. He could be found for like 4-10% at many places. Not sure if it was the best approach, but my belief is his prices haven't been priced in accurately on these other markets given the results of IA. Too many people paying attention to that one market.

before you play the PredictIt game you might want to read this which is from their website:




"Whenever you sell a share for more than you paid, or redeem it for $1 when the market closes, we charge a 10 percent fee on your profit. When you sell some, but not all, of your shares in a contract, we will calculate your profit or loss by assuming you are selling your shares in the order in which you bought them.

We do not charge a fee on trades where you break even or sell shares at a loss.

You cannot withdraw funds until 30 days after your initial deposit. We charge a 5% fee on all withdrawals.

Victoria University is a non-profit institution. Our fees are necessary to cover the costs related to running this site."






for a non-profit institution it sure looks like they've figured out how to make a profit - their fees look really rough



https://www.predictit.org/support/ho...e-on-predictit

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

before you play the PredictIt game you might want to read this which is from their website:




"Whenever you sell a share for more than you paid, or redeem it for $1 when the market closes, we charge a 10 percent fee on your profit. When you sell some, but not all, of your shares in a contract, we will calculate your profit or loss by assuming you are selling your shares in the order in which you bought them.

We do not charge a fee on trades where you break even or sell shares at a loss.

You cannot withdraw funds until 30 days after your initial deposit. We charge a 5% fee on all withdrawals.

Victoria University is a non-profit institution. Our fees are necessary to cover the costs related to running this site."






for a non-profit institution it sure looks like they've figured out how to make a profit - their fees look really rough



https://www.predictit.org/support/ho...e-on-predictit

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Yea, I thought I mentioned this. It is pretty awful. However, I feel more confident my deposit won't disappear. I'm also not trying to really make money, but win a game. My first entry was chasing news that was widely known. Lost 10% from that haircut but i'm up 20% overall now. There just aren't any options if I want to bet on these sort of things. I'm just really not into sports, but during Presidential election I love messing with predictit. Once the season is over though, there really is no reason to mess with it as there aren't enough events for it to be fun.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

before you play the PredictIt game you might want to read this which is from their website:




"Whenever you sell a share for more than you paid, or redeem it for $1 when the market closes, we charge a 10 percent fee on your profit. When you sell some, but not all, of your shares in a contract, we will calculate your profit or loss by assuming you are selling your shares in the order in which you bought them.

We do not charge a fee on trades where you break even or sell shares at a loss.

You cannot withdraw funds until 30 days after your initial deposit. We charge a 5% fee on all withdrawals.

Victoria University is a non-profit institution. Our fees are necessary to cover the costs related to running this site."






for a non-profit institution it sure looks like they've figured out how to make a profit - their fees look really rough



https://www.predictit.org/support/ho...e-on-predictit

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It must have slipped Dancer's and Munchkin's minds not to mention these fees and the 30 day freeze on withdrawals when they promote this website on their GWAE podcasts.
Thanks Half Smoke.

So my Bernie Iowa bet didn't work so great. Sold some of it early on. Funny thing early during Caucus I saw Warren rising and decided to hedge on her assuming she'd be biggest threat against Bernie. (All these women are so excited to elect a woman) That was not the case! Once it the Caucus results were delayed and it seemed Pete was a real threat I sold off some Bernie shares, but I went ahead and SOLD all my Biden positions of significance. Now I put all that on places where Pete was like .05 - .10. So now I'm about even after losing this Iowa shit. If Pete holds I'll be doing quite well.

I liked this hedge because if Bernie wins, I don't really lose that much value on Pete, but if Pete pulls ahead and wins caucus then surely these sub .10 shares will gain significant value. Still have no clue how to say the dudes last name.

Oh well, these political tests show me as agreeing far more with Buttigieg than other Democrats. THANK YOU FOR READING. Still beating the 5% withdrawal fee !

I use Predictit but you have to understand how to play it in order to make money.

There are some upsides to it:

- You are betting against mostly political ploppies, including partisan idiots, rather than the house

- You can buy out at any time, rather than having to fade a fluke loss

- There is a huge selection of races to bet on, whereas the online books have relatively few

- There are ways to angle the "NO" betting to where you get better value than "YES" betting

- They pay out reliably (unlike illegal offshore books)


However, the big negatives are:

- The fees are very high

- 5% withdrawal fee is especially tilting, as it applies to all money withdrawn, not just what you deposited


Therefore, here are my suggestions:

- Do not bet large favorites. The fees will eat whatever profits you make, and in some cases, you will actually LOSE money if you bet, win, and withdraw. Stick to even-ish money bets and underdogs. The bigger the dog, the better the value.

- Do not be reactive. The money is made by either being ahead of the curve on trends, or taking good guesses at underdogs where there is scant polling. For example, in 2016, Ted Cruz was 11-to-1 to win Alaska, despite almost no polling there. So guess who I bet? Cruz, obviously, and he won. If you keep firing on whoever is the surging "it" candidate of the moment, you will get your clock cleaned.

- Deposit the absolute minimum to place your bets. This is because you are charged 5% on EVERYTHING you withdraw, so if you deposit too much, you will be paying 5% to take it out on the back end.

- Cut your losses when a likely loss is coming. If you are almost sure to lose and can buy out at 20%, do it. Better than getting zero.

- Try to predict when surges and falls will happen. For example, if you think Bernie is going to win New Hampshire (he will), but you think Biden will still manage to take Nevada (the next one), wait for Biden to lose New Hampshire, as you will get him cheaper.


I have made money on Predictit, but I hate myself for it at the same time, because the fees are so terrible.

I agree with everything Dan Druff said, and I have been writing about Predict It in relation to Trump betting for years:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/t...p-impeachment/

This article was back in 2017 and, of course, went into the implications of the fees. Of course, if PredictIt is paying to be mentioned on the radio program, I could see where perhaps PredictIt would not want them to get into the fees. PredictIt does not compensate me in any way for these articles, and even if they did, I would still talk about the fees so they would just have to live with that. If they asked me not to mention the fees, I'd tell them to shove their money up their collective asses.

Anyway, this 2017 article identified awesome value in that Trump was at $0.80 (YES) to finish 2017 and end the year still in office. This was in August. Absent death, no way he wasn't finishing that year, so that was just free money.

Here's my most recent article:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/i...ment-now-what/

My big whiff in this one was I liked Buttigieg at $0.15 to become the Democratic nominee because I saw him winning Iowa and that win creating a push to something like $0.25-$0.30, at which point, it could be sold. Here's what I said in the article:

Quote:

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If you like a long-shot, I think Buttigieg is a little undervalued at $0.15 for the yes to be the Democratic nominee, but I wouldn’t personally take it. Apparently, he’s leading or close in a couple of the early states, and I think we all remember the charge that Rick Santorum made back in 2008. I think we also remember that Rick Santorum did not win the Republican nomination in 2008.

I think the most likely result of this is just losing without it ever really being close. I think the second most likely result of this is a heartbreaker (like it would have been for Santorum bettors). However, it is possible to sell this for some value if his standing improves...which it actually should at least a little bit if a few of the candidates not to make the most recent debate drop out. I could easily see it going over $0.25 if a few candidates drop out and he manages to win a state.

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Anyway, that call was putrid. Granted, it did rise up to $0.16 ever so briefly yesterday, and I said I wouldn't actually bet it, but I didn't write about it with the goal of it could be sold off at a 90% of a penny profit per share. Looks like Buttigieg may win a tie for the most delegates coming out of the state and it also looks like nobody cares. At $0.12 right now, had I bought it, I'd be inclined to hold and hope, but they'd probably be screwed.

Other bets I liked in this article were the following:

Trump to finish first term: YES @ $0.86 (Currently $0.90)

Senate Conviction and Removal: NO @ $0.90 (Currently $0.94, I guess some people think there will be new Articles of Impeachment between now and then?)

Trump Resigns: NO @ $0.88 (Currently $0.94)

Here's what I said on these:

Quote:

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Honestly, I think the value of the Senate Removal---NO is so great with what I would assume a 0% probability of occurrence that I’m inclined to take the sure thing and not even play around with Trump finishing his term (yes) or Trump resigning (no).

Like I said, the Senate Removing from Office---NO just eliminates every single other variable that there is. Not to be morbid, but if Trump were to meet his demise, your bet would win. If Trump were to resign in the face of a potential Senate removal, your bet would win. In my opinion, there is simply no chance of losing this one. Even if something crazy were to happen and it looked like the Senate might convict Trump, he would likely just resign because it would have to be some sort of dead-to-rights thing anyway.

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Another one was Trump was only at $0.88 YES to be the Republican Nominee for President (!!??) at the time of that writing. That's up to $0.93 now, but seriously, what in the actual fuck?

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Anyway, I agree with what Dan Druff has said in terms of fees and general strategies for using Predict It. Dan Druff also makes a great point about Market Inefficiency. Personally, I think that PredictIt users trend Liberal and that is reflected somewhat in the lines. When it comes to one side v. the other things, any time I have ever identified value, it's almost always been on the, "Republican side."

A HUGE whiff was in this article:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/i...20-and-beyond/

In that one, I actually preferred Impeachment---NO to the NO on Removal from Office, though I liked both. In the article a few months later:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/m...trump-betting/

I liked the YES on him completing his first term as well as to be the Republican Nominee. I was more about, "First term," because it was by then that I realized that the Democrats are completely insane and might actually Impeach him, which they would do later in the year.

This 2016 article:

https://www.wizardofvegas.com/articl...etting-update/

I found value on Trump to win the Election. Hopefully, anyone following me and betting what I say AND I HOPE NOBODY IS BECAUSE THESE ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT AND AMUSEMENT got on that one because that and others make up for my big April 2019 whiff on, "Impeachment---NO." That pick sucked.

Anyway, that's my contribution to this thread for the time being. Everyone have a great day!

Druff gave some good suggestions. I had to think why you only want to bet dogs. You win favorites all the time, so that 10% on win is churning through your money moreso. I hadn't appreciated that, but I did realize that if you are leaving a position at a loss, it is likely a good idea to keep 1 share if you are going to be betting more in that market that has like a year to go. Why? Because you carry your loss on the trade, but I guess it would only be on that one single outcome. Actually this wouldn't come into play that often, but a thought, especially if you want to exit a position temporarily to free up capital.

So the Iowa caucus has 20 cent swings several times for no real reason. Bernie was 77 then 60 as pete hit 35+. Back and forth several times. Some random news outlet must have given out some information. It was bizarre to me but most of my money was in other positions which you can't liquidate without the 10% fee. I agree, quite bullshit.

Had a dog come in today. Got it at .16 , 1 senator for "How many Senate GOP will vote to convict President Trump on any article by 2/29?"
. I had no idea who it'd be and still don't know who it was, but it seemed reasonable at the price to think there'd be one senator somewhere that was going out, or had some convictions.

One thing i learned, when you have an event that does not have a set resolution time, NEVER leave open unattended buys. (Sells are questionable, but not near as bad) With a buy, you are taking on the cost of losing when you never had any chance to win. Someone freerolls you big. This happens because other participants are way ahead of Predictit and will sell off everything right into your buy orders. I had a market like this for 2 guys, but put in cheap buy order at a certain price as a "hedge". So my main guy won, but my other buy order I'd forgot about bought a bunch of worthless crashing shares.

Pretty sure one can swing trade and make money fairly easy. Just have to be selective about the types of markets and the underlying mechanics of it.

Buttigieg is up to $0.17 on PredictIt now, which makes me feel a little better. I really thought the market would move more based on him winning, or coming close, in an early state because I didn't think the market would be as aware of how strong his ground game was and how well he was polling in the state. I'd be inclined to dump it for any profit, at this point. I don't think there's going to be a huge spike where he ever looks really competitive on the national level.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mission146

Buttigieg is up to $0.17 on PredictIt now, which makes me feel a little better. I really thought the market would move more based on him winning, or coming close, in an early state because I didn't think the market would be as aware of how strong his ground game was and how well he was polling in the state. I'd be inclined to dump it for any profit, at this point. I don't think there's going to be a huge spike where he ever looks really competitive on the national level.

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Betting on that confused fairy who just got caught pumping in fake applause to his town hall events, is a loser. Imagine this abomination as the next president for a moment. Putin would laugh in his face, Merkel would slap that slappable face silly if he disagreed with her, China, the Korea's, Malaysia, Singapore and Japan wouldn't let the homo take a step onto their soil, and the Saudis etc. would execute the faggot if he tried to get off a plane in their countries. Aids has never been a problem over there, and they don't want the sick disease to start.

When will you government benefit-raping liberals begin to realize that your only winning bets are the ones placed on Trump? He's finishing up the BEST winning week of any president in US history. In other words, betting on him to do ANYTHING positive for our country or that gives liberals tantrum fits, is a sure winner!

Wise up, misguided WoVers.

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I don't think that you read my post from above. This is what I quoted from the article:

Quote:

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If you like a long-shot, I think Buttigieg is a little undervalued at $0.15 for the yes to be the Democratic nominee, but I wouldn’t personally take it. Apparently, he’s leading or close in a couple of the early states, and I think we all remember the charge that Rick Santorum made back in 2008. I think we also remember that Rick Santorum did not win the Republican nomination in 2008.

I think the most likely result of this is just losing without it ever really being close. I think the second most likely result of this is a heartbreaker (like it would have been for Santorum bettors). However, it is possible to sell this for some value if his standing improves...which it actually should at least a little bit if a few of the candidates not to make the most recent debate drop out. I could easily see it going over $0.25 if a few candidates drop out and he manages to win a state.

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First, I said he was, "Undervalued," which is the same thing I said about Trump in 2016. This isn't a situation of known game EV where you have an exact percentage, so it's just how you perceive the value. I also said I wouldn't take the binary at that price, when I said a, 'Little,' undervalued I meant a little. I also said that the most likely result of the bet if one intended to hold forever would be, "Losing without it ever really being close," with the second most likely result being a, "Heartbreaker." At no point did I say or suggest that he would actually win the nomination, just that he was a little undervalued at $0.15.

Anyway, I said I could see it easily going to $0.25+ if a few candidates were to drop out and he managed to win a state. Well, a few candidates dropped out and he did win a state (I got those aspects right) but the dog didn't bite as far as the number going up very much. He's still sitting at $0.17, though, so plenty of time for people to get out no harm no foul or even make a very small amount if they took that one. Not a great prediction, but far from a disaster, technically winning. If I had bought any of this at $0.15, I'd get out now. I really did expect an immediate surge if he won the first primary.

I did win the bets that I placed on Trump, thanks for reminding me! I'm also not a liberal, but whatever. Had you read the post, then you would know that almost every bet I talked about was on the, "Trump side," in some way. Of course, in one article I liked the IMPEACHMENT---NO binary...that one didn't go so well.

And, again, if you had been reading the posts you would see that I said that it didn't go so well, "Because it was by then that I realized that the Democrats are completely insane and might actually Impeach him," which doesn't seem like the sort of thing a liberal would say, I don't think.

You wise up. Start by learning how to read earlier posts before responding.

I have kicked Singer from the thread, and have deleted all posts discussing politics unrelated to PredictIt betting. This thread is to discuss the PredictIt markets, NOT to discuss politics in general.

I still feel that tying up your money on huge favorites is a mistake, due to the high withdrawal fees and limited upside.

The only exception is if the bet is resolving very soon, and you don't plan to use the money again until it's over.

So let's say there was a bet, "Will Trump resign by February 10, 2020?", and you can get the NO side for $0.95. That's a 19-to-1 favorite, but almost guaranteed to win for you. Since you'd be getting your money in 2 days, you might as well fire on it (provided you already have the money on the site, and don't need to deposit more to place it). However, if it wasn't resolving until June 30, you'd be tying up that money for almost 5 months. Not worth it.

One of the big keys on PredictIt is to LIMIT DEPOSITS as much as possible, because every dollar you deposit you will pay 5% to take back off.

Here's an example:

Let's take the hypothetical Trump resignation bet where you can buy NO for $0.95.

So let's say I deposit $475 and buy 500 shares of NO.

Then Trump does not resign, and I win. I've profited $25. But wait!

They take 10% of my profits, bringing them down to $22.50.

So I now have $497.50 on the site.

I then withdraw everything.

They take 5%, which is $24.88.

Now I have $472.62, which goes into my bank account. Oh no! That's less than the $475 I put in!

So what just happened?

I deposited, I won my only bet, and yet I ended up LOSING money after all the fees! As Trump himself would say, "Unfair!"

This is an example of why NOT to deposit anything more than the absolute minimum, and why NOT to deposit for purposes of betting on large favorites.

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this PredictIt bs is a sad joke - 5% of even the money you deposited taken away from you

even horse racing which has a very high takeout doesn't do this - anywhere

the bottom line is they're steering you towards making bets you might not want to make to minimize their fees

and they're steering you away from bets you might want to make because the fees would eat into so much of your profit

this is some total bullshit - I can't see making a bet for these reasons or avoiding a bet for these reasons

it just sucks

this is some millennial clowns thinking they're really smart and that they're going to rip people off for big bucks

and then claim they're a non-profit organization and pay themselves $250k per year salaries

a real sweet hustle

Dan Druff,

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, which is why a lot of the picks I remark upon come with the caveat, "If you already have money in there anyway," but not all of them.

I also agree that there may often be better value in the long-shots, though it does warrant mentioning that the value added needs to be greater (if carried through to resolution) because that 10% comes out to a higher dollar amount if the thing is carried through to a winning resolution. Another one from above we can look at is Senate Conviction and Removal---NO at $0.90 at the time I recommended it. I put the probability of that event at zero, so therefore it has an expected value of $0.09/share after the 10% fee. The question is first term limited, so that's a 9% RoI in just over a year.

But, again, I wouldn't buy into Predictit to pick up that one for precisely the reason you mentioned. However, if you already have money in there, the only way you're not paying 5% on that money anyway is by losing, which you certainly don't want. Let's say you had $900 (to keep the numbers really simple) and the only things you were considering were taking Senate Convicts---NO and cashing out now:

CASH NOW: 900 * .95 = $855

Senate Removal---NO @ 900 shares: 900 + (.09 * 900) = $981 * .95 = $931.95

In one case, you pay $45 in withdrawal fees and in the other case you pay $49.05 in withdrawal fees, the difference being the $4.05 on 5% of the money gained.

In terms of actual gain, you're still gaining $931.95-$855 = $76.95 in actual dollars on the $900 (again) exposed. Therefore, the bet has a value of:

76.95/900 = 8.55% Expected Profit, which at the time of the writing of that article would have been just over a year for a roughly 8% annualized RoI, which again, is pretty good if you already have money in there.

In summary: I agree completely on depositing as little as possible. I agree completely on not depositing for the purpose of betting a heavy favorite or favorites. I think betting on heavy favorites, however, can still offer excellent value in the event that someone already has money in there.

Also, in response to the Senate actually voting NO, the Trump removal question currently sits at $0.96 on the no. Given the fact that there is still something like 11 months until getting paid on the thing concluding, I would get out now, why?

Let's assume 100 shares at $0.90 to keep it simple.

Bet amount: $90

Keep to Resolution: $100 - (10 * .1) = $99

Sell Now: $96 - (6 * .1) = $95.4

So, before considering withdrawal fees, we've already extracted more than half of the value we are going to get from it in a period of under two months. Where we had a roughly +8% annualized RoI before, that is multiplied sixfold for a +48% annualized RoI if we cash out now. (It's actually a little higher than that, but keeping it simple).

I cannot overstate enough that I agree with not making a new deposit for the purpose of betting a heavy favorite. In fact, since there is no such thing as, "House money," I would say one would need to perceive great value in order to make a deposit at all considering that 5% of that money is automatically sunk costs, win or lose.

There was also Trump to be the Republican nominee at $0.88 which currently sits at $0.95. Given that the Convention is in August, and this is another known result, I think one could make an argument for both keeping it and selling it now. The % RoI is obviously terrific to sell it now because you've only been holding this position for two months.

Anyway, I think when you're looking at binary markets the possibility of an early sell is also something that has to factor in from a value standpoint, even on heavy favorites. Granted, unlike a hold until conclusion RoI it can't be known, per se, but it is there. I like the idea of turning around a bunch of, "Sure things," for a relatively quick profit, when possible, if you already have money in there.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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this PredictIt bs is a sad joke - 5% of even the money you deposited taken away from you

even horse racing which has a very high takeout doesn't do this - anywhere

the bottom line is they're steering you towards making bets you might not want to make to minimize their fees

and they're steering you away from bets you might want to make because the fees would eat into so much of your profit

this is some total bullshit - I can't see making a bet for these reasons or avoiding a bet for these reasons

it just sucks

this is some millennial clowns thinking they're really smart and that they're going to rip people off for big bucks

and then claim they're a non-profit organization and pay themselves $250k per year salaries

a real sweet hustle

---

Horse racing, in general terms, effectively takes more than 5% the very second that the bet has been made by way of the handle. Otherwise, you would not have horse racing tracks. Depending on your perspective, you might suggest that only losing bettors pay the handle, but I look at it as similar to the rake in poker...

A.) Everyone pays the rake, or at least, everyone who bet into a pot.

OR:

B.) If I had to put the rake as being paid by only one person, it would be the winner of a pot won by a sole person. In a 0% house edge (rake) game, all of those chips would belong to the winner, would they not?

Similar to poker rooms where it is known that there will be a rake, whether percentage or house minimum, horse racing works the same way. The tracks get a slice of all monies bet. The money is lost by somebody as soon as it is bet.

I don't otherwise disagree with the rest of what you said.

I haven't looked at predictit to make one bet. I look at it more like a brokerage account. I agree about the 5% and everyone should always complain about it. It is one step under scammy.

I have 30+ positions open. I'm all over the place. PredictIt is only fun during Presidential season. I'll then leave it alone for 4 years for the reasons you guys mention.

You can't compare the 5% to the handle charged per event. Isn't horse racing well above 5%? Above 10%? PER RACE?

It is despicable they charge the 5% after the 10% profits but if the organization is legitimate even that isn't that bad. I leave my money on there for a year and the chance of it suddenly disappearing is likely not greater than 5%. Can you say that for an illegal online site?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

You can't compare the 5% to the handle charged per event. Isn't horse racing well above 5%? Above 10%? PER RACE?

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yes, you and Mission have a point - in horse racing they structure it a different way so it doesn't look as bad

in horse racing at least they have an excuse - they have extremely expensive operations and costly purses they have to pay - PredictIt has none of that

Dan Druff gives an example of the possibility of winning a bet and still losing money

that could happen in horse racing too but they don't allow it to - in what is called a minus pool - if they used their normal formula if a ton of money is bet on one horse a $2.00 bet could pay back $1.80 meaning the bettor would have won his bet but lost money

but their regulations require them to pay a minimum 5% profit on any winning bet - in West Virginia it's 10%







interestingly, (to me) Dan and Mission make the point that the longshot is a better deal at PredictIt

in horse racing, at least in the win pool studies have shown that there is a favorite/longshot bias and the fave is a better deal and the lower the odds on the fave the better the deal is in terms of expected return - despite breakage (I won't go into that) favoring the shot

I have posted this data here before on another thread but I deleted the image from imgur.com so it won't be here anymore

if anybody was interested - although I doubt anyone is - I will try to re-post that recent data which was culled from over 800,000 races

the reason is horse racing bettors like the longer shots better and because it's parimutuel the fave becomes a better deal

Half Smoke,

You bring up an excellent counterpoint with the minus pool. Similarly, in poker, the only way I think a hand could even theoretically not have some sort of winner is a chopped pot from which a rake is taken. I also note that Predictit is going to get a slice of every bet (considering both sides) given that they take 10% of any profits on an option.

In any case, I don't think anyone considers the 5% slice of any withdrawals to be particularly ideal, but it is certainly fair as long as the depositor knows what it is upfront. I don't mean fair in the sense that it's a reasonable amount, per se, just in the sense that anyone who is FULLY aware of it ahead of time and makes a deposit anyway has entered into a consensual agreement to have this happen should they ever withdraw.

I think the long shot is a better deal if someone is only going to ever make one bet or is initially buying in. If you're looking at something where the funds are already in PredictIt, I think the betting value is just wherever the betting value is.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mission146

I think the long shot is a better deal if someone is only going to ever make one bet or is initially buying in. If you're looking at something where the funds are already in PredictIt, I think the betting value is just wherever the betting value is.

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This is what I thought. The betting on longshots makes more sense if you are depositing/withdrawing just for 1 bet. Otherwise it is just ROI but you need to factor in the time.

There is a pretty big difference in how we see PredictIt. Dan Druff obviously sees PredictIt as something to deposit money on to place a bet. I'm pretty much only going to be there for election season and plan to bet on all sorts of things when I see a price that seems off. I want to churn through my money repeatedly. It seems more like a cryptocurrency exchange than a betting market.

I decided to bet against Steyr. It was hard to find anything but saw he was in a market for qualifying for next debate. I decided what the heck and put some money against him at the market price. Here is where I screwed up. The orderbook had one sell order that had no support. So bought it at that price but the next support was priced far off. So I don't think this particular buy was very indicative of any consensus. So I need to slow down and examine the other prices. This became an auto-loser, but luckily was only 1.5% of my PI BR. (lol)

So much value can be had just by putting in buy orders every day. Sometimes you get some weird dips and such.

A little tip:

Often if you're only taking one position in a race (say, Buttigieg for New Hampshire), you should buy all NO for everyone you don't want, rather than YES for the one you do. It's the exact same bet, but you get better value on the NO.

To figure this out, take the profit you would make buying one share of each NO (which would be all of them if your guy wins), and compare it to the profit you would make buying a single share of YES.

Predictit doesn't charge you full price when you made redundant bets, because only one person can win each race. So if you were to buy NO one everyone but Buttigieg, you would "win" all of them except one in the worst case. Therefore, PredictIt calculates that, and the cost or owning a bunch of NOs ends up very similar to buying one share of YES.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

A little tip:

Often if you're only taking one position in a race (say, Buttigieg for New Hampshire), you should buy all NO for everyone you don't want, rather than YES for the one you do. It's the exact same bet, but you get better value on the NO.

To figure this out, take the profit you would make buying one share of each NO (which would be all of them if your guy wins), and compare it to the profit you would make buying a single share of YES.

Predictit doesn't charge you full price when you made redundant bets, because only one person can win each race. So if you were to buy NO one everyone but Buttigieg, you would "win" all of them except one in the worst case. Therefore, PredictIt calculates that, and the cost or owning a bunch of NOs ends up very similar to buying one share of YES.

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So say there are 6 in a race. A-F. So I buy 100 each of A-E as no's at .85.

You're saying I don't need 100 x .85 x 5 in capital to purchase all these positions?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

A little tip:

Often if you're only taking one position in a race (say, Buttigieg for New Hampshire), you should buy all NO for everyone you don't want, rather than YES for the one you do. It's the exact same bet, but you get better value on the NO.

To figure this out, take the profit you would make buying one share of each NO (which would be all of them if your guy wins), and compare it to the profit you would make buying a single share of YES.

Predictit doesn't charge you full price when you made redundant bets, because only one person can win each race. So if you were to buy NO one everyone but Buttigieg, you would "win" all of them except one in the worst case. Therefore, PredictIt calculates that, and the cost or owning a bunch of NOs ends up very similar to buying one share of YES.

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So say there are 6 in a race. A-F. So I buy 100 each of A-E as no's at .85.

You're saying I don't need 100 x .85 x 5 in capital to purchase all these positions?

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Yes that's what I'm saying.

https://predictit.freshdesk.com/supp...ntract-markets

Look at this BS regarding caucus states:

Quote:

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Should two or more candidates be tied for the most delegates, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate with the first alphabetical name (last name, then first) among those so tied.

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WHAT?!?

That's an insane rule.

Why not just make the tiebreaker the popular vote received?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Look at this BS regarding caucus states:

Quote:

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Should two or more candidates be tied for the most delegates, this market will resolve in favor of the candidate with the first alphabetical name (last name, then first) among those so tied.

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WHAT?!?

That's an insane rule.

Why not just make the tiebreaker the popular vote received?

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It is crazy. It makes pricing this a lot more difficult. So now you have to figure out the chances they tie and give that to Pete. With your rule, the price discovery mechanism doesn't need to know the chance they'll tie.

It is doubly stupid when you look at predictit for what it is supposed to be. An academic thing aimed at predicting outcomes of events. Ok, then why the stupid rule where the outcome isn't particularly applicable to anything in real life?

I was swing trading the candidates priced around 10 cents. It worked for Biden but then I venture out to Amy. Well she took a dive across the board and hasn't came back. So that erased the previous day's gains. I have to monitor this stuff a lot closer and stay away from fringe candidates. Biden is going to constantly bounce around being such an establishment guy. I diversified my swing trading to get access to more volume. These really are tiny markets, which is why they can be so profitable. You could never do this with significant money.

Still up 40% overall though. Not worth my time, but better than wasting my time on something that doesn't make $.

Ok I got out of most of my positions because the bets are very correlated and I don't have time to manage my positions. Up 30% from my buyin but lost back a lot to laziness.

So I am trying to figure out if this is a lock. 48 delegates. If they tie, the < 1% is a loser. So how about 1% - 2%? How likely is this. So 24 vs 23. or any difference of 1 is the least possible, and that is 1/48, or basically guaranteed less than 2% but > 1%.

So betting No on the 1% to 2% here seem like a literal mathematical lock. I have been drinking so tell me where I'm wrong here. I was just perusing stuff to find something to churn my balance through. Fuck, I bought 2% to 3% and sold it at a loss. Ok, now I have the right position. Such an idiot.

Watch the Democrat fuck this up and lock my money up for 3 months over this 3-4% edge.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...evada-caucuses

The winning contract shall be that which identifies the difference in the percentage of county delegates in the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses awarded to the candidate winning the largest number of county delegates in excess of the number awarded to the candidate winning the second most. The percentage of county delegates awarded will be calculated as the number awarded to a candidate divided by the total number of awarded. In the event of a tie between two or more candidates for the largest number of county delegates awarded, the contract "Less than 1%" shall resolve to Yes.

Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range.

PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.

PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

Although the fees are high, there is no juice in the actual bet. Also, use the link www.predictit.org/promo/gwae and you'll get a $20 match on your fist $20. That will cover a lot of the fees.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jimmy jazz

Although the fees are high, there is no juice in the actual bet. Also, use the link www.predictit.org/promo/gwae and you'll get a $20 match on your fist $20. That will cover a lot of the fees.

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Hey, jimmy. Welcome to VCT.

Thanks, Mickey.