History:
Did well in 2016 (didn't keep track of dollar value, but I won for sure)
Had a bad start to 2017 and quit early in the season.
New strategy for this year.
First pick of the season:
Chicago Cubs under 8.5 - starting in about 40 min
Printable View
History:
Did well in 2016 (didn't keep track of dollar value, but I won for sure)
Had a bad start to 2017 and quit early in the season.
New strategy for this year.
First pick of the season:
Chicago Cubs under 8.5 - starting in about 40 min
Let's throw in another under, this time in the AL:
Chicago White Sox (R. Lopez) at Toronto (J. Garcia) under 9
Good luck, Dan!
I know nothing about baseball, and have a real difficult time betting on a sport where the fields of play are radically different team to team. It boggles my mind.
I am, however, courageous enough to risk almost nothing on daily fantasy sports and report the outcomes. I have a counterintuitive idea or two, and we'll see how it goes. My standard game will be the $9 classic daily Fanduel.
I will be tracking the MLB picks in units and win/loss, with units obviously being what's important.
Expect mainly unders, dogs, and small favorites from me.
Nice 2-0 start to the MLB season.
Cubs/Reds easily came in, with just 1 run scored.
Blue Jays/White Sox started off great, but a few late runs made it a minor (albeit not very nerve-wracking) sweat. 6 runs still far below the 9 run total.
Toronto under: +0.943 units (-106)
Chicago under: +0.935 units (-107)
Record so far:
2-0, +1.878 units
No picks today. Don't like anything, but I did make one NBA pick (see that thread).
Two MLB plays so far.
One is on the Dodgers. I admit I won't be betting AGAINST the Dodgers this year because I'm such a big fan and don't want to root against them. But I will bet for them when I truly feel like they're going to win, and when the line appears to have value.
Dodgers (Wood) -130 at Arizona (Corbin)
The other is an over/under
Cleveland (Kluber) at Angels (Skaggs) Under 7 +100
May have one more (Giants) later.
San Francisco (Cueto) -130 vs. Seattle (F. Hernandez)
This is more of a "feel" pick than anything else, so beware.
Dodgers laid a big egg and lost 3-0.
Cleveland under on pace to win, 2-2 in the 7th.
Those last two were solid as a rock.
Quick note on the fantasy front: I haven't found a lineup I was willing to invest nine dollars in. That's how bad it has looked to me. Basically, I've found pitchers who have done well enough, but some of the NL games (like SF/Sea today) have blown up and I would have had none of the players doing the damage. I've tracked it, and the lineups I came closest to playing would have done no better than the 60-65 percentile, which means not close to cashing. Until I track a few days where my proposed teams at least come close to cashing, this is a no go. And we haven't even gotten to Colorado home games yet, which make the offensive decisions even harder.
Giants came in easily. Glad I fired on that.
Split my other two baseball picks, losing Dodgers -130 but winning Angels/Cleveland under 7 +100 (after 13 grueling innings).
Yesterday's 2-1 went as follows:
Dodgers -130: -1.0 units
Angels under 7 +100: +1.0 units
Giants -130: +0.769 units
So that's another +0.769 units.
MLB record: 4-1, +2.647 units
Starting at 1:10pm PDT:
Detroit (Zimmerman) +118 at White Sox (Shields)
Starting at 4:05pm PDT:
Cincinnati (Bailey) at Pittsburgh (Brault) Under 8 -115
Two nailbiters today, but the record is the same as if they were blowout wins.
Cincy/Pitt under 8 squeaks by in a 5-2 game (and it was 5-1 after 5 innings), and Detroit comes back from 3 down with 2 out and a runner on first in the 9th, to win 9-7 in extras.
Detroit +118: +1.18 units
Cincy/Pitt under 8 -115: +0.870 units
Total for day: 2-0, +2.050 units.
MLB Season total: 6-1, +4.697 units
Cin/Pit under yesterday was so nice, we'll do it twice.
Cincy (L. Castillo) at Pittsburgh (T. Williams) under 7.5 +105
Game at 4:05pm PDT
Lost the pick on Friday, dropping me to 6-2 and +3.697 units.
One baseball pick today:
Atlanta (Teheran) at Washington (Scherzer) - Under 7.5 -105
Won yesterday. Now 7-2 and +4.649 units.
Today:
Milwaukee (Suter) at St. Louis (C. Martinez) - under 7.5 +105
Anyone who doesn't think I run bad, look at how I lost the last pick.
2-1 in the bottom of the 9th, 3-2 in the bottom of the 10th, 3-3 in the bottom of 11th.
Lose 5-3 to a 2-run walk off HR.
Small dog to start the day:
Kansas City (Duffy) +120 vs. Seattle (Paxton)
Game starts 11:15am PDT
Lost the above pick.
I made 3 more, but they already started. I posted them on time on my PFA forum, but forgot to repost here.
NY (Wheeler) at Miami (Jar. Garcia) - Under 8.5 -105
Miami +125
Cincinnati (L. Castillo) at Philadelphia (Pivetta) - Under 7.5 -105
Won the two unders at -105, lost both sides.
Came into the day 7-3, +3.649 units.
The two sides were -2 units total, and the two winners at -105 were +1.905 units total, for a net loss of -0.095 units today.
Current record 9-5, +3.554 units.
Like the NBA, it appears my early season talents lie more with totals.
I'm now 2-3 on sides, with the two winners being -130 and +118.
I'm now 7-2 on totals and I would be 8-1 if it weren't for that fluke extra innings screw job on Tuesday.
It's also important to note that I got very lucky on one of my side wins, and I got very unlucky on that aforementioned total. So I could just as easily be 1-4 on sides and 8-1 on totals.
Either way, it's too hard to draw conclusions from this small sample space, but I may stick primarily to totals if this pattern continues.
======================
TODAY:
Starts at 4:10 PDT
Yankees (Gray) at Boston (Porcello) - Under 9 +110
Sorry for the late posting.
Here's some picks for today's upcoming games, which start very shortly:
Colorado (Freeland) at Wsahington (Roark) - Under 8.5 +105 (Under 9 -120 or better also ok)
Philadelphia (Velasquez) at Tampa Bay (Faria) - Over 8 -115
Here's another.
Still looking at the late games (the ones starting 7pm west coast time).
Kansas City (Hammel) +152 vs. Angels (Heaney)
My first decent sized dog pick of the year.
Heaney was a well-regarded prospect who had one decent year (2015) and two horrendous ones (2016 and 2017) and is just coming off elbow AND shoulder inflammation (lol).
The Royals (aka Fake Dodgers) are awful, but they're at home, Hammel looked good last time out, any Heaney's elbow is so questionable that he was listed as "probable" for today's start as of yesterday (rather than certain).
So, yeah, I'll take +152 here all day.
Starts 5:15pm PT
Had a 4-2 lead in the 7th with KC, then 4-3 in the 8th, and they lost. Ugh.
Came in 9-5-1, +3.554 units
Colorado +105 under: +1.05 units
Philly over: -1 unit
KC side: -1 unit
Total today: 1-2, -0.95 units
Total record:
10-7-1, +2.604 units
Subrecord:
2-4 sides
8-2 unders
0-1 overs
Early game:
Cincinnati (Finnegan) vs. St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 9.5 -120
Starts in 15 min
Won the above pick, even though it got hairy in the 9th with the bases loaded and 1 out.
Note that I'm 9-2-1 with unders and 2-5-1 with everything else, so bet accordingly with these final 2 of the day:
KC (Junis) +152 vs. Angels (G. Richards)
Milwaukee +104 (C. Anderson) at Mets (Harvey)
Today's recap for me:
KC (Junis) +152 vs. Angels (G. Richards) - LOST -1
Milwaukee +104 (C. Anderson) at Mets (Harvey) - WON +1.040
Cincinnati (Finnegan) vs. St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 9.5 -120 - WON +0.833
Total for day: 2-1, +0.873
Total for reason: 12-8-1, +3.477 units
Damn Royals got me again, for the third time this season.
Unders 9-2
Overs 0-1
Sides 3-5
Starting very soon:
Baltimore (Bundy) at Boston (Sale) - Under 6.5 -110
Starting in a few hours:
San Diego (Lucchesi) -118 vs. San Francisco (Beede)
I don't think the Padres are very good, so they're not usually undervalued. Lucchesi is very undervalued at the moment, though, so I might keep riding him.
Yesterday was a great situation for the Padres because the SF pitcher (Beede) hasn't shown he can get it together, even in the minors.
White Sox (Rey. Lopez) +133 at Oakland (Mengden)
Colorado (Marquez) at Pittsburgh (Brault) - Under 8 -113
Washington (Hellickson) at NY Mets (Degrom) - Under 7.5 -102
Warning about the White Sox pick: It's very "public"... the line is baffling to many, and the public is all over it. This is often a trap. I'm going with it anyway, but I feel dirty about it.
Bad day yesterday going 0-2-1. The Chicago White Sox pick wasn't mine, but rather was from someone on my PFA forum. But I endorsed it (though was nervous), and therefore it becomes part of my record.
Not that my picks yesterday were any good, either.
Here's tonight's under:
San Francisco (Cueto) at Arizona (Corbin) - under 8 -115
Note: Cueto's ankle is sore
A different PFA user, from the Boston area who actually hates the Red Sox, is backing them tonight.
I have to agree.
Betts is playing tonight. That was questionable until very recently.
Price had that weird hand numbness which caused him to give up 4 runs in 1 inning and then miss a start, but he's back. That's the one red flag.
The one bright side is that Price suffered the same in a previous year, and he recovered quickly without issue.
So yeah, I'll take the +151.
Boston +151 (Price) at Angels (Ohtani)
FYI the public is with the Angels on this one, and Vegas books are also of the opinion that the Angels will win, judging from line movement patterns. So that last part is kind of a red flag, but it's not a Trapper John situation, since this isn't the public side, nor was the opening line made to appeal to our side.
Took both of these easily. Boston won 10-1, and the under was a 1-0 game, and almost a no-hitter.
MLB Record update:
As of 4/14:
12-8-1, +3.477 units
4/15:
Baltimore (Bundy) at Boston (Sale) - Under 6.5 -110 - WON +0.909
San Diego (Lucchesi) -118 vs. San Francisco (Beede) - WON +0.847
TOTAL 4/15: 2-0, +1.756 UNITS
4/16:
White Sox (Rey. Lopez) +133 at Oakland (Mengden) - LOST -1
Colorado (Marquez) at Pittsburgh (Brault) - Under 8 -113 - TIED +0
Washington (Hellickson) at NY Mets (Degrom) - Under 7.5 -102 - LOST -1
TOTAL 4/16: 0-2-1, -2.000 UNITS
4/17:
San Francisco (Cueto) at Arizona (Corbin) under 8 -115 - WON +0.870
Boston (Price) +151 at Angels (Ohtani) - WON +1.510
TOTAL 4/17: 2-0, +2.380 UNITS
TOTAL LAST 3 DAYS: 4-2-1, +2.136 UNITS
SEASON TOTAL: 16-10-2, +5.613 UNITS
Are you using a similar method that you used for NBA picks for these MLB picks?
Quick super last minute play:
Tampa (Faria) +110 vs. Texas (Hamels)
Tampa/Texas - Under 7.5 +103
redietz. yes, I loved the Padres and Boston sides bets recently. Definitely great value on both.
Both Tampa picks won. Sorry such short notice.
Here's another on short notice:
(starts 4:10 PST)
Washington (Roark) at NY Mets (Matz) - Under 8 -120
You can get -115 on Bovada on some accounts right now, btw.
Offense is happening tonight in two AL games.
18 runs so far in the A's/White Sox game, and 20 runs so far with the Blue Jays and Royals.
Anyway, I'm considering backing the Giants tonight. Stratton is an underrated pitcher, and should probably be good for some value for awhile. It's too bad he plays on such a bad team. Doesn't help that Longoria has had a bad ankle the entire year (hence his bad start), and Panik is out tonight.
But I'm still considering it. Game starts at 6:40 PDT, so I'll update soon.
San Francisco (Stratton) +141 at Arizona (Ray)
Starts at 6:40 PDT
I done fucked up.
Hopefully Giants win tomorrow at least....askdghaklsdfhaksdfhakjsdflakdsfa
4/18 recap
Tampa (Faria) +110 vs. Texas (Hamels) - WON +1.110
Tampa/Texas - Under 7.5 +103 - WON +1.030
Washington (Roark) at NY Mets (Matz) - Under 8 -120 - LOST -1.000
San Francisco (Stratton) +141 at Arizona (Ray) - WON +1.410
Total on 4/18:
3-1, +2.550
Overall record:
SEASON TOTAL: 19-11-2, +8.163 UNITS
Overs 0-1
Unders 12-4-2
Sides 7-6
Hi Dan:
For the first time, you suggested a bet and I was in a position to ride along. Last night I bet on San Francisco (Stratton) +135 and won. As you mentioned he was a VERY strong pitcher on a weak team. Thanks for the heads up.
FAB
FAB, that one was definitely a sweat! I knew runs might not be easy to come by with the Giants, and I was right! Fortunately 2 home runs took care of it, and they squeaked out a win.
Can only find one baseball play I like at the moment:
Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) - Under 9 -113
Aw, guys, never sweat a dog. A good friend of mine whacked Oakland -200 yesterday. Now THAT was a sweat. Tough to win a game when your starting pitcher scores a minus 14 in fantasy leagues.
Late game:
Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Angels (Tropeano) - Under 8.5 -115
3000th post!
I almost never grab favorites -150 or worse. Too little reward and too much risk.
Also, there's not much value typically, as the public loves its big favorites, so the line tends to be shaded that way anyway.
That's not to say most dogs are good (especially recently, with all the tanking and salary dumping we're seeing), but the way to win in MLB is to bet select big dogs, small dogs, small favorites, and totals (mostly unders).
Split 'em yesterday. Both were close. Was lucky to hold on with the Yankees game, and was unlucky to lose in the 9th with Boston, but honestly both were close the whole way, so 1-1 was an appropriate record.
Here's what I've got today:
Washington (Scherzer) at Dodgers (Kershaw) - Under 6 -117
Miami (Richards) at Milwaukee (Chacin) - Under 9 -115
Miami (Richards) +146 at Milwaukee (Chacin)
The main reason for both Miami picks: Trevor Richards killed it during his minor league career. However, he had never pitched above AA prior to this year. Predictably, he got hammered hard in his first 2 starts, though one was against Boston, who has a very tough lineup. Last time out, against a more moderate Pittsburgh lineup, he looked like the pitcher he was supposed to be. I think this could be the beginning of a run of value dog bets on him, at least against lineups which haven't been hot. I even grabbed him at my fantasy draft.
Scherzer/Kershaw speaks for itself, and all signs point to a real pitcher's duel, especially in Dodger Stadium on a cool night.
FYI the Dodgers under is very public, while we are very much going against the public with both Miami bets. Sharps appear to especially like the Miami +146.
So that'a 4 consecutive unders decided by the late innings after being close the whole way -- and I'm 2-2 in those.
Record as of 4/18
SEASON TOTAL: 19-11-2, +8.163 UNITS
4/19:
Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) - Under 9 -113 - WON +0.885
Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Angels (Tropeano) - Under 8.5 -115 - LOST -1
TOTAL 4/19: 1-1. -0.115
4/20:
Washington (Scherzer) at Dodgers (Kershaw) - Under 6 -117 - LOST -1
Miami (Richards) at Milwaukee (Chacin) - Under 9 -115 - WON +0.870
Miami (Richards) +146 at Milwaukee (Chacin) - LOST -1
TOTAL 4/20: 1-2, -1.130
SEASON TOTAL: 21-14, +6.918 UNITS
Overs 0-1
Unders 14-6-2
Sides 7-7
Not seeing anything I like today, at least not for the games starting before 3pm PT.
Check back later.
Starting very soon (3:10 PDT):
Minnesota (K. Gibson) at Tampa (Snell) - Under 7.5 -105
More coming shortly
Starting at 4:10pm PDT... a rare over for me.
NY Mets (Degrom) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Over 8.5 -116
Yesterday was my first day of posting 2 or more picks in MLB and winning none.
TB under was very disappointing since it was on pace to win most of the way.
Here are today's plays:
Minnesota (Hughes) at Tampa (Chirinos) - Under 8.5 +114 (starting 10:10am PDT)
Miami (Caleb Smith) at Milwaukee (J. Guerra) - Under 9 -120 (starting 11:10am PDT)
Here is my likely sole play of the day:
Oakland (Cahill) at Texas (Moore) - Under 10 +100
4/21:
Minnesota (K. Gibson) at Tampa (Snell) - Under 7.5 -105 - LOST -1
NY Mets (Degrom) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Over 8.5 -116 - LOST -1
4/22:
Minnesota (Hughes) at Tampa (Chirinos) - Under 8.5 +114 - LOST -1
Miami (Caleb Smith) at Milwaukee (J. Guerra) - Under 9 -120 - WON +0.833
TOTAL BOTH DAYS: 1-3, -2.167
SEASON TOTAL THRU 4/22: 22-17, +4.751
Overs 0-2
Unders 15-8-2
Sides 7-7
What a horrendous beat on the Oakland game yesterday. 3-3 going to the 9th, and Oakland hits a HR to lead off (fine), then two outs later, 5 more runs come home after a barrage of hits.
Under 10 was almost a lock when the game entered the 9th 3-3. Third time this year I've been screwed in the 9th in an under pick when a win was almost sure, the other two being a tie involving the Yankees (6-0 entering bottom of the 9th, under 9), a loss with a 2-1 game in the bottom of the 9th with under 7.5 (that one was the worst), and this one 3-3 entering the 9th with under 10.
Moving forward, today's sole play will be an underdog:
Mets (Wheeler) +170 at St. Louis (Weaver)
I agree, other than arizona, colorado, wrigley, NYY home games.....10 is almost always a number to grab under.
That Mets win was ugly.
Aside from that Jay Bruce go-ahead HR, St. Louis pretty much handed it to New York.
In the first, a badly misplayed fly ball went for a triple, and the Mets cut their deficit to 2-1.
Mets then fell behind 4-1.
However, Matheny mismanaged Luke Weaver, who clearly suddenly lost the ability to throw strikes. After walking two batters on 4 pitches each, and then throwing 4 bad pitches to Yoenis Cespedes (who stupidly swung at one), it was a 3-1 count. Then Weaver finally fired a strike -- right down the middle, and Cespedes hammered it for a 463-foot bomb. Matheny should have taken him out as soon as he walked that second batter. on 4 pitches (none of the 8 pitches were close). Amazingly, Weaver was left in there to flail after the Cespedes HR, walked yet another batter, and was finally being removed. However, no further runs scored.
Then St. Louis got up 5-4, and New York caught them 5-5.
Then St. Louis had 1st and 2nd nobody out in the bottom of the 9th, and I was getting ready to make another post bitching about always losing in the final inning. But a strikeout and double play, and suddenly the inning was over.
The Bruce cracked that HR in the 10th, and the Cards went meekly in the bottom half of the frame. Game over. Ship +170.
Part of me felt like a fraud for winning that one. But then I reminded myself that my bet was mostly against Weaver, who gave up 6 runs and 9 hits in his last outing, and I didn't feel he deserved such a strong favorite line against a competent Mets team. I was a bit worried about Wheeler (who was indeed not very good), but +170 was just too good to pass up. So this one fell my way, after looking like it was destined to lose three different times -- when the Mets trailed 4-1, when they trailed 5-4 going to the 8th, and when the Cards had runners on 1st and 2nd with nobody out in the bottom of the 9th.
Record keeping:
4/23:
Oakland (Cahill) at Texas (Moore) - Under 10 +100 - LOST -1
4/24:
Mets (Wheeler) +170 at St. Louis (L. Weaver) - WON +1.700
TOTAL BOTH DAYS: 1-1, +0.700
SEASON TOTAL THRU 4/24: 23-18, +5.451
Overs 0-2
Unders 15-9-2
Sides 8-7
First -1.5 pick of the season:
Washington (Scherzer) -1.5 +100 at San Francisco (Samardijza)
Also let's throw in a doubleheader under for good measure
*** GAME 2 ***
Detroit (Boyd) at Pittsburgh (Kuhl) - Under 8 -115
Might be back with more later.
Broke even yesterday, winning Washington -1.5 and losing the under.
You guys wanna see the Trapper of all Trapper John MD lines (for a game starting in a few minutes), check out Seattle/Cleveland.
Mariners are like -109 on the road with Paxton on the mound (5.61/1.442) versus Cleveland's Clevinger (1.75/1.062).
I'm sure you can guess where all the public money is. Line started at Seattle +120 and keeps moving the opposite direction you'd expect!
I'm steering clear of this whole mess. Probably no picks today.
One early game, starting in a bit more than an hour.
Let's bet on it (and against F Yu) twice:
Milwaukee (Suter) +154 at Cubs (Darvish)
Milwaukee/Cubs OVER 7.5 +104
Brutal to lose that o7.5 given that it was 2-1 after 1 inning.
Then lost the moneyline by 1 run.
Ugh.
Tampa Bay (Snell) at Boston (Pomeranz) - Under 8.5 -115
Texas (Minor) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9 -115
Both starting shortly
Super last minute:
Braves (Teheran) +153 at Phillies (Nola)
Value bet.
Brutal 1-4 day yesterday.
None of these losses were blowouts, either.
Milwaukee lost 3-2. The same game had 3 runs in the first and couldn't cover Over 7.5. The Atlanta pick was up 3-0, then tied 3-3 for a long time, before finally falling apart at the end. The Texas under got off to a horrendous start, but ended up only losing by 1 run.
Only that Boston under managed to cover, though barely.
I'm coming back with Milwaukee today:
Milwaukee (Guerra) +155 at Cubs (Quintana)
Guerra has been a pleasant surprise in 2018. He was a sleeper in 2016, was awful in 2017, and has pitched well in 2 starts this year.
Quintana has a 7.79 ERA after a terrible April, which not uncommon for him. April is the worst month of his career. Yes, it's still barely April, but it's clear once again that he hasn't warmed up yet.
Game starts 11:20am PDT
Lost the above.
I've been running bad in baseball lately, resulting in breaks taken on both Thursday and Saturday.
I'm 1-5 in my last 6 picks.
I'll post the full record shortly.
I'm back with two against-the-public unders, and one with-the-public side:
Kansas City (Hammel) at Boston (E. Rodriguez) - Under 8.5
Tampa (Faria) at Detroit (Zimmerman) - Under 8.5
at Minnesota (Lynn) -114 vs. Toronto (Aaron Sanchez)
Looks like 1-2 is likely.
San Diego (Lauer) +149 at San Francisco (Samardzija)
Lauer got BOMBED in his ML debut.... but it was at Coors Field.
He actually has good minor league numbers, and is considered to have decent upside.
Samardzija sucks. He's had one good start, one bad start, but overall is pretty much crap.
SF is also a little banged up and has a career reserve and minor leaguer in the 7-8 spots tonight.
Game starts at 7:15 PDT.
but on the bright side for you.....SF just got finished playing 4 games in less than 48 hours (fri-sunday) and their bullpen is well used up.
Tonight:
at Washington -1.5 (Scherzer) -110 vs. Pittsburgh (Kuhl)
Atlanta (Soroka) +167 at Mets (Syndergaard)
Dodgers (Kershaw) at Arizona (Koch) - Under 7.5
More:
Toronto (M. Estrada) at Minnesota (Gibson) - Under 9 -120
Philadelphia (Eflin) at Miami (Jarlin Garcia) - Under 8.5 +100
Came 1 out away from hitting this one.
SD 5, SF 3 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th and a man on 1st.
End up losing 6-3 on a walkoff single with the bases loaded.
Hand was out of gas and the manager didn't take him out, as managers often refuse to do with their closers.
Everything held except Tor/Min under. That one was 4-3 in the 8th, and 4-4 going into the 9th, but 3 runs came in the top half of the 9th, and I lost. Can't ever hit those.
But still a good day, going 4-1 including that +167 Braves hit.
The Braves win snapped an ugly losing streak of 5 games in a row where I had sides.
I'm now 2-0 backing Scherzer -1.5.
Still batting .000 on overs.
Here's an update on my record, which briefly fell into the red yesterday before popping back above even today:
SEASON TOTAL THRU 4/24: 23-18, +5.451
4/25:
Washington (Scherzer) -1.5 +100 at San Francisco (Samardijza) - WON +1
Detroit (Boyd) at Pittsburgh (Kuhl) - Under 8 -115 - LOST -1
TOTAL: 1-1, 0 units
4/27:
Milwaukee (Suter) +154 at Cubs (Darvish) - LOST -1
Milwaukee/Cubs OVER 7.5 +104 - LOST -1
Tampa Bay (Snell) at Boston (Pomeranz) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
Texas (Minor) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9 -115 - LOST -1
Braves (Teheran) +153 at Phillies (Nola) - LOST -1
TOTAL: 1-4, -3.130 units
4/28:
Milwaukee (Guerra) +155 at Cubs (Quintana) - LOST -1
TOTAL: 0-1, -1 units
4/30:
Kansas City (Hammel) at Boston (E. Rodriguez) - Under 8.5 -110 - LOST -1
Tampa (Faria) at Detroit (Zimmerman) - Under 8.5 -110 - WON +0.909
at Minnesota (Lynn) -114 vs. Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) - LOST -1
San Diego (Lauer) +149 at San Francisco (Samardzija) - LOST -1
TOTAL: 1-3, -2.091 units
5/1:
at Washington -1.5 (Scherzer) -110 vs. Pittsburgh (Kuhl) - WON +0.909
Atlanta (Soroka) +167 at Mets (Syndergaard) - WON +1.670
Dodgers (Kershaw) at Arizona (Koch) - Under 7.5 -115 - WON +0.870
Toronto (M. Estrada) at Minnesota (Gibson) - Under 9 -120 - LOST -1
Philadelphia (Eflin) at Miami (Jarlin Garcia) - Under 8.5 +100 - WON +1
TOTAL: 4-1, +3.449 units
TOTAL 4/25-5/1:
7-10, -2.772 units
SEASON TOTAL THRU 5/1:
30-28, +2.679 units
Overs: 0-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-0
Unders: 19-13-2
Sides: 9-12
Good day, Druff. Finally I’m awake early enough and I was smart enough to check this thread. Glad I did.
I had some other bets too that I had already put in, that were similar to some of yours.
I was certain my Jets -1.5 bet was doomed when they were losing something like 0-3 or 0-4, but nope, they turnt it around for the win. !
Dare I do another double Cubs bet involving F Yu?
Why not...
Starting 11:20am PDT
Colorado (T. Anderson) +199 at Cubs (Darvish)
Colorado/Cubs - Under 10.5 -115
Two notes:
Anderson has had weird chest pain recently, and it interrupted his last start. However, he thinks it won't be a big deal, and I believe it won't show up again today.
Wind is blowing out of Wrigley at about 11mph, hence the high total. So beware betting this if you are afraid of wind-influenced totals at Wrigley.
Wind actually up to 20 now. Wrigley is weird because it is perceived as being a hitter's park because of its dimensions, but early in the year the cold wind blows in and it is difficult to hit.
The weather changed this week--we're in the 80's with the wind blowing out. Now the question is will the cubs ever start hitting. Rizzo's home run last night was a pop up to short.
Cub fans are all giddy about Yu and Quintana. I think they are both losers with not enough heart.
Agree regarding Yu and Quintana.
Easily hit the Colorado +199. Nolan Arenado killed my over in the 8th. Still ahead +0.99.
Won't fault you if you don't trust one of my over picks... but here is one I've been looking at for awhile, and I'm going to fire on it. Starting at 4:05pm PDT
Pittsburgh (Nova) at Washington (Strasburg) - Over 8 +102
Washington over hit easily.
So let's take our 2.01 units up for the day and put them both at risk with this two-pronged play:
Oakland (Brett Anderson) +159 at Seattle (Paxton)
Oakland/Seattle under 8 -110
Believe it or not, Anderson has looked excellent in his AAA starts, striking out 25 in 19 innings, walking 2, and allowing 2 ER total.
3-2 Oakland...
With 2 out in the 9th and men on 1st and 2nd, Dee Gordon hit a grounder and the play at 1st was super close. He was called out to end the game....
...but...
Upon review, it was overturned (mistake, imo), and the game was back alive, with bases loaded.
Thankfully Segura grounded out to end it, and that was that.
Won both picks, to cap off my second consecutive strong day.
Today:
Colorado (T. Anderson) +199 at Cubs (Darvish) - WON +1.99
Colorado/Cubs - Under 10.5 -115 - LOST -1
Pittsburgh (Nova) at Washington (Strasburg) - Over 8 +102 - WON +1.020
Oakland (Brett Anderson) +159 at Seattle (Paxton) - WON +1.590
Oakland/Seattle under 8 -110 - WON +0.909
TOTAL TODAY: 4-1, +4.509
GRAND TOTAL: 34-29-2, +7.188 units
Overs: 1-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-0
Unders: 20-14-2
Sides: 11-12
I'm actually up in 3 of the 4 categories (all but overs) because I had a number of underdogs with the sides, so my 11-12 record is actually a winner.
The last two days have been great, going 8-2 and +7.958. They have almost completely erased the funk I've been in for the past 10 days or so.
Hope you got in on some of these.
Hi Dan:
I had been distracted and the only action yesterday I was on was your Over at Pittsburgh v Washington. I am glad I was on the only Over you have cashed on. That game was not even close as I was in the money by the middle of the game.
Thanks for your work and sharing.
FAB
Not much I like today.
Still considering later games.
One game I do like may not happen, or may not happen with the pitchers I want.
*** GAME 2 OF DOUBLEHEADER ***
** MAKE SURE THESE TWO PITCHERS ARE GOING -- BET "LISTED", NOT ACTION **
Toronto (Biagini) at Cleveland (Plutko) - Under 10 -105
Plutko is yet another "rookie pitcher who is hot in the minors right now" story. Ignore his only 2 Major League starts (back in 2016) where he pitched poorly.
There is a chance this game won't happen, or that they will end up swapping pitchers around.
Currently on rain delay for game 1.
Cleveland hung a big 7 in the 5th and that was all she wrote yesterday.
Here's what I got so far on the afternoon games:
Miami (W. Chen) at Cincinnati (Romano) - Under 9 -115
San Francisco (Stratton) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 9 -105
Notes:
Miami pick is very anti-public
SF pick is semi-public (that is, public moderately favors my pick)
Atlanta has mashed the ball lately. Acuna, Albies, Markakis, Freeman have been super hot. And Stratton got bombed last time out. So keep all that in mind before tailing me on that one.
I know it might be hard to bring yourself to bet an under on two offensive juggernauts like the Reds and Marlins, but try to force yourself.
Considered the under on the Chicago/St. Louis game but decided I'll pass.
I'm looking at one more: Under on the Angels. That one starts after 7pm PDT, so I'll post it closer to game time if I like it.
Interesting one in Arizona -- you can get like +180 right now on the Dbacks AT HOME!
That's very tempting, even though they're up against Houston and Gerrit Cole, and even though they're sending out washed up Kris Medlen, who hasn't pitched in the Majors since 2016, was horrible that year, and didn't look too good in the minors this year. Very tough decision on that one. Can you really pass on a +180 on a 21-11 team at home, just because their starting pitcher is awful?
I'm considering that too.