Those XFL "Soft Numbers" -- LOL

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03-14-2023, 01:15 PM
redietz

Those XFL "Soft Numbers" -- LOL

Going to see if I can go three for three on XFL line moves on this forum. Won the first two, yesterday I laid -132 on the ML at TopBet with San Antonio versus Arlington. I also laid the -2.

The timing of the ML wager can be verified, of course.

Will I have been correct, winging it without waiting on arbitrage programs or an identification of "soft numbers" (a misnomer, by the way)? Or will the number move the other way?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Mickey will want to know WHY the line will move because that, according to mickey, is the test of expertise. Simon says, mickey, Simon says.
03-15-2023, 12:53 PM
Half Smoke

1 Attachment(s)

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

Won the first two, yesterday I laid -132 on the ML at TopBet with San Antonio versus Arlington. I also laid the -2.

bragging about yesterday's wins - won't post before the games start - I totally get it - don't wanna give away free money - why should you____?_____ you worked so hard to obtain your vast knowledge -

make those suckers pay for that huge edge you always deliver

nobody deserves a free pick
03-16-2023, 08:10 AM
redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

Won the first two, yesterday I laid -132 on the ML at TopBet with San Antonio versus Arlington. I also laid the -2.

bragging about yesterday's wins - won't post before the games start - I totally get it - don't wanna give away free money - why should you____?_____ you worked so hard to obtain your vast knowledge -

make those suckers pay for that huge edge you always deliver

nobody deserves a free pick

Except that the first two were posted immediately in the other thread, and this one was posted within 24 hours. Check with mickey. Other than that, you're spot on. Another genius "AP" commentary.

Anything else, Half Smoke?

Oh, and if you're wondering, of course I can provide screen shots of the wagers with the times they were made -- if the old Half Smoke will put up some cash challenging me. I'll be in LV several times in the next few months. Just let me know what you'd like to wager, Half Smoke. You can send the cash to Dan, and we can square up after Dan views (or doesn't) the actual wagers in offshore account histories.

Be a real "AP" and make the wager. You're confident you have the advantage, right?

I'm a little busy right now but email me at IntegritySports@aol.com if you're interested. We'll handle the wager email to email, person to person, not on this Godforsaken gambling backwater.

P.S. Gotta love these "APs." Instead of just piggybacking the recommendations, wait two days and then say something negative and wrong. We'll see if Half Smoke has the financial courage of his convictions.
03-17-2023, 01:48 AM
Half Smoke

.

if you did post the bets before the games as you say - then I apologize - I didn't see the other thread

I've never seen you do that before - but I haven't followed all of your postings

anyway - my bad - I should have read all of your back posts first

screenshots of winning wagers to show your greatness are not useful - a person could fail to post screenshots of losing wagers

if you want to show your greatness start a thread like Druff and make 100 picks and let's see

I very much doubt you will do that -

FYI - twice I have posted hoops picks on my own threads - once at WOV and once at paceadvantage.com - different usernames - ALL PICKS DOCUMENTED AND TIMESTAMPED - each time about 40 picks including some money line picks

I can come back and link the threads if you want but I doubt you will feel the need to see that

each time about 15% R.O.I.

I don't bet any more - I would have to make gigantic bets to have any real impact on my finances and I don't want to do that
03-17-2023, 02:50 AM
Half Smoke

.

oh, and btw - here are some of my picks for next year's NFL regular season games

all away underdogs who got 4 points or less - no handicapping necessary

I've tracked the last 4 seasons - every single season was a winner - the qualifiers went 159-117 - 57.6% winners - 10% R.O.I.______________pushes not considered

anybody who wants to can verify it a covers.com

no worries - I'll be sure to post the results right here - I wouldn't want for you to miss it

I was inspired to look at this because of Mike Shackleford's tracking - see link - in about 2,100 games the away underdog went positive by 2.57% - I then tweaked that to get a higher %

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
03-19-2023, 04:34 PM
redietz

With an hour and a half to go before kickoff, Bookmaker has a +144 ML coming back the other way, so I'll do a fraction for that. The remainder, I'll buy a +3 1/2 up to +4 and balance out the -2 and some of the -132 ML in a middle attempt, leaving a slight imbalance favoring the favorite.

Still no email from Half Smoke.

That's it for public showing off. I said three XFL lines would move. They moved. The two moneyline wagers resulted in moneyline arbitrage.

Since last summer, between the recommended MLB totals window, the NBA road fave couple of days, the football futures last summer, and these three XFL line moves, the only thing that took a (possible) loss was the football futures, depending on when you hedged for how much. Everything else made money. I lost a minimal amount on the football futures (a fraction of a wager) because I didn't hedge the full amount.

Have a good one. Tell the "APs" I wish them well at BetBash.

And imagine if a casino sponsored a get together for card counters. What do you think the card counters response would be?
03-20-2023, 02:12 AM
Half Smoke

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

With an hour and a half to go before kickoff, Bookmaker has a +144 ML coming back the other way, so I'll do a fraction for that. The remainder, I'll buy a +3 1/2 up to +4 and balance out the -2 and some of the -132 ML in a middle attempt, leaving a slight imbalance favoring the favorite.

oh yeah, that's really great info - you don't even bother to mention what game it is or give anybody else a chance to benefit - a really cheap ass post

start a new thread and:

POST 100 PICKS BEFORE THE GAMES START AND LET'S SEE HOW YOU DO

after you have crushed the lines you will get the respect and admiration at vct that you so desperately crave

this will never happen sports fans - either he will not respond at all or he will give a bunch of reasons why he won't do this

and one more time - worth repeating - your offer to post screenshots of winning bets really stunk up the joint

as far as your challenge to me - one more time - I don't bet anymore - I would have to make gigantic bets to make a difference and I don't want to do that -
03-20-2023, 10:59 AM
redietz

Half Smoke, are you mentally challenged? I was in the PlayBook newsletter, on newsstands nationally, for more than a decade. The thing about newsletters -- they are published before games are played. In case you didn't know that.

And let's see -- two games every week of every football season for 30 years -- publicly available in The Wise Guys Contest.

https://www.playbooksports.com/Vegas-Wise-Guys/

And all plays monitored for years, some on television, some in print, by The Satellite Cable Handicap, Handicappers' Report Card, The Sports Monitor, and "Tipsters or Gypsters?"

And then there's Bally's College Football Contest.

http://web.archive.org/web/200306241...itysports.com/

And the World Cup of Handicapping:

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

Not counting my origins, of course, a weekly against-the-spread column in Boz's favorite paper, The Valley View Citizen Standard.

Other than those examples, and my clients, nobody's seen anything.
03-26-2023, 08:00 PM
mickeycrimm

[QUOTE=Half Smoke;155823].

oh, and btw - here are some of my picks for next year's NFL regular season games

all away underdogs who got 4 points or less - no handicapping necessary

I've tracked the last 4 seasons - every single season was a winner - the qualifiers went 159-117 - 57.6% winners - 10% R.O.I.______________pushes not considered

anybody who wants to can verify it a covers.com

no worries - I'll be sure to post the results right here - I wouldn't want for you to miss it

I was inspired to look at this because of Mike Shackleford's tracking - see link - in about 2,100 games the away underdog went positive by 2.57% - I then tweaked that to get a higher %

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/[/QUOTE

Ditz doesn't like Shacks stats. They are to mathematical for ditz low IQ.
dITZ