Pre-Season Fantasy

I just wanted to report that Fanduel is offering pre-season fantasy football. I have not seen this before (I lead a sheltered, sane life). Now here's the rub. It's a salary cap league, and all of the players have the same value in the pre-season. So whether you choose Tom Brady or whoever is third team for Miami now that Tannehill's hurt, the price is 6,000. All RBs are 6000. Everybody is 6000.

If you're a pre-season swami, and I'm not, you may have an advantage in these contests. One key element is figuring out who is truly kicking each game.

It's pretty weird, but I'll probably invest a few shekels in it.

A couple years back, I considered signing up for DFS, but then they stopped accepting customers from my state because my parents (i.e., the government) wouldn't allow it. I'm sure it was for my own good.

DFS appeared beatable with good preparation, although it seemed like the "rake" was discouragingly high.

I don't know about strategy when every player is the same price. It's probably better to choose a bad player who will get 30 minutes of time than a good player who will only be in the game for 15 minutes. I suppose I would try to focus on situations where a team has a shortage at a particular position.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bocce ball

A couple years back, I considered signing up for DFS, but then they stopped accepting customers from my state because my parents (i.e., the government) wouldn't allow it. I'm sure it was for my own good.

DFS appeared beatable with good preparation, although it seemed like the "rake" was discouragingly high.

I don't know about strategy when every player is the same price. It's probably better to choose a bad player who will get 30 minutes of time than a good player who will only be in the game for 15 minutes. I suppose I would try to focus on situations where a team has a shortage at a particular position.

---

It's a really odd analytical situation. Usually, you're looking for value, but when everyone is priced the same, what do you do? Miami's an example of a real conundrum. Tannehill is out. Now one would think that means the backup (Moore) would get extra plays, but actually it may work the other way. If Moore is suddenly the projected regular season starter, his number of plays may get drastically reduced.

There are pre-season mavens out there who follow every piece of info and have studied all of the coaches' pre-season tendencies (which vary depending on which week of the pre-season it is). These folks may have a considerable edge. Fantasy players generally pay a $1 tariff for every $10 entrance fee, which is steep. In these pre-season games, it may be smart to avoid multi-entry contests where someone can just plug in each and every quarterback who will play. Maybe one should stick to single-entry contests, although I suspect those will be few in number.

It's pretty freaky, and it gave me a headache. I'm going to give it a shot, though, for dinner money. The interesting thing is that my specialty is college football, but I didn't win much of anything at it when college fantasy was legal. I'm actually slightly ahead in fantasy overall, and that's strictly from the NFL.

I have one hypothesis, which I will test and report on after the pre-season, regarding quarterbacking.

I decided to use Ryan Mallett at QB. You get just one QB, so that's a daring/stupid move. We'll see how it goes.

My hypothesis regarding pre-season quarterbacks has been completely wrong thus far. I expected veterans competing for backup jobs to be competent, complete a lot of short, quick passes so as to avoid hits, and get a fair number of series. Instead, what has happened is that teams with high profile rookies are playing them for more-than-expected series and trying to make the rookies look like heroes for PR purposes -- to sell tickets, jerseys, gets fans pumped, and justify the draft picks. So some starters play longer with the rookie quarterbacks, and the rookies are actually at risk for injury playing that many plays. The play-calling is also hero-creating heavy in the red zone.

It's more of a PR league than ever as opposed to trying to win games. The fact Kaepernick isn't signed is all the evidence you need regarding the (lack of) emphasis on winning games.

I had the opportunity to play in a high stakes preseason fantasy league. As I tried to create a team, I realized I didn't have a clue when it came to preseason (and maybe regular season) so I declined. BIG $$ involved.

Regular-season, I'll play in salary cap leagues. I won't in round-by-round draft 'em leagues. Pre-season is nuts.