Was at a casino and saw a record keeper writing down statistics from a VP machine in maintenance mode. Found it quite interesting and secretly snapped a pic.
I did redact the little player card screen on the machine so people can't tell which casino it is (I don't want to be barred for taking this pic).
Notice the difference between theoretical hold and actual hold!
Very interesting. And I'm sure it's like that on other machines in other casinos. Theoretical hold is just that-- theoretical. Who plays a 98% machine and only loses 2% ??
Plus it just shows how bad these players are! Keep holding that 3 to a royal over 3 of a kind! ;)
That's very interesting stuff Dan. Just a few of observations:
1. On that spreadsheet, I don't see statistics for the fifth card flipover. :rolleyes:
2. I don't see a column sorting out the hot and cold cycles and the number of cycles for each. :rolleyes:
3. Where is the information showing which hands within the total number of hands played are the profitable ones? I mean, if someone can play "short term" sessions and leave with a profit 85% of the time with very little play they must know when to play the machine and what hands to play. If the machine doesn't know how can a person? :rolleyes:
These stats can be misleading too. If I buy in for $100 and lose it all, no matter how many hands I played, the "hold" is 100% but my "payback" is likely in the 95%+ range.
But that's not what the stats show, is it? The stats show the theoretical return and what players are really losing. It has nothing to do with recycling your original buy in down to zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
What I think is very interesting is the popularity of TDB. That indicates players want the big wins but I think the multipliers are fewer with TDB than with Bonus.
Your right on this one here. Also note that not really that many hands have been played. This is the short term variance we talk about. Most of those games the payback is top heavy, meaning that a good chunk of it is in the higher paying hands. Take a game like NSUD. I think like 20% or so is just in the 5 oak and higher. If you aren't hitting these, you'll usually get slaughtered on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonBut that's not what the stats show, is it? The stats show the theoretical return and what players are really losing. It has nothing to do with recycling your original buy in down to zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
What I think is very interesting is the popularity of TDB. That indicates players want the big wins but I think the multipliers are fewer with TDB than with Bonus.
Notice on the games with more hands played the actual gets closer to the theoretical...
Another thing, especially with DSTP, is a good amount of the theo is tied up in the Dealt royal with the 20X multiplier - which has a cycle in the 7 million hand range.
Short coining also affects the actual.
I honestly thought Rob would chime in accusing the casino of rigging the game.
As said, these figures are low because of a bunch of factors including poor play, i.e. "special plays." :cool:
I moved the mickey/Rob/Alan/kewlJ/etc fighting here: https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...at-video-poker
Please don't clutter this thread with that stuff.
Looks like Extra Draw Frenzy is doing well for the players, must have been some big hands hitting.
wonder what the stats look like for AP-able games like UX
Just watch the neophytes play UX for a short time and you'll get a good picture.Quote:
Originally Posted by pepe
Interesting things I noticed:
- No Double Super Times Pay play on Jacks or Better
- Double Super Times Pay DDB had a pretty high hold, probably because people don't play it anywhere near optimally (not nearly as intuitive as Jacks or Better). Same with Triple Double.
- The only two with negative holds had small sample sizes, and easily could have been affected by a large hand hit during the play
Anyway, I think this shows that VP makes the casinos a lot more money than people think. Most people don't play anywhere near theoretical.
I would love to see the hold on Deuces Wild, as people make BIG TIME mistakes in that game.
Here's something interesting that you may or may not be aware of Dan. The image of the maintenance mode screen from your initial post has been posted on other forums, generating discussion. I noticed it on a blackjack forum yesterday, by a member that I don't see posting here, at least by the same handle. Just goes to show we have many more "viewers" than we realize here.
To give an idea how bad players are, I'm currently watching a lady play triple play DW STP and watched her hold 22 over 22KQ suited.
Oh yes, I'm sure there's plenty of lurkers here who don't want to enter the lion's den of all the fighting and trolling on this site.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I did think that screen was very interesting, and I had never seen anything like it before, so I made sure to pretend I was texting while actually getting the phone camera ready.
I've also seen people hold things like 228T (unsuited) because they were going for the straight!Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Or perhaps most egregious, holding a random card with 22 so they can "hold" 3 of a kind! LOL!!!
But then there are some more common mistakes that are made by people with a clue but still without knowledge of the correct strategy, such as holding 3 suited cards with a deuce, chasing a flush. Or holding something like 2259 in an effort to hit a straight flush (not as terrible, but still wrong).
The general rule of thumb with deuces is, "When a deuce is dealt to you, forget everything you think you know about chasing draws in video poker."
Anyway, recreational players are really, really, bad with this stuff.
With games like Jacks or Better, it's fairly intuitive. Most people aren't dumb enough to hold 3 to a straight or 3 to a flush, and a lot even come to realize that holding lower or middle inside straight draws is wrong. There's just fewer mistakes to be made. I once gave a girlfriend advice for JoB simply saying, "Hold all made hands dealt to you, don't chase inside straights, don't chase 3 to a straight or flush, and don't be afraid to toss back all 5 cards if there's garbage." That advice alone will prevent any egregious mistake.
Dan you don't hold three to a flush with two high cards? You don't hold three to a straight flush with two high cards?
You don't hold three cards with an open-ended straight flush draw?