Will be focusing mostly upon unders.
Season starts October 16.
I will post the picks fairly close to game time, in most cases (I'll shoot for around 30-40 minutes prior, but sometimes less).
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Will be focusing mostly upon unders.
Season starts October 16.
I will post the picks fairly close to game time, in most cases (I'll shoot for around 30-40 minutes prior, but sometimes less).
Thanks for sharing these.
What was your record/units won last season? I often hear NFL/NBA are the hardest leagues to handicap.
I haven't forgotten about NBA.
Well, yesterday I did, since I was scrambling to get tickets to the Dodgers.
Today I just didn't like any of the lines.
Check back tomorrow.
My record is in the other NBA thread. I forget off the top of my head what it was, but I won overall.
However, I did fall significantly from my 60% pace, which I had through December 30.
Last year I not only won 60% of picks in November and December, but I was winning by lots of wide (20-30 point) margins on the unders. As I've said before, the margin of victory is often more indicative of your handicapping skill than your overall record, because there is a huge luck factor in close games.
In January and beyond, most of my wins were much closer, and my record was far worse.
I will watch closely this year, and I'll either modify strategy or shut things down if I start to struggle in January and beyond.
First NBA pick of 2018-19
Orlando at Philadelphia - Under 216.5 (216 ok)
Posted this earlier on my PFA forum but forgot to repost here. Game already started.
Houston/Clippers under 221
Sorry for forgetting the repost
Hoping to avoid 0-3 to start the season.
Phoenix at Golden State - under 228
Barely won yesterday after it looked hopeless following a 70-point 3rd.
Today (starting at 4pm PT):
Philadelphia at Detroit - Under 215
Drummond is sick but playing.
Simmons is out.
1-3 start. Tougher to handicap unders this year because of the 14-second offensive rebound clock. Driving up scores.
I decided I like the Lakers under tonight.
Starts at 7:30 PT.
Denver at Lakers - Under 235
Dan-have you noticed that the over/unders are being set higher because of the clock?
Is the average final total higher by any significant amount?
Yes, the over/unders are set way higher thus far.
It's not even close.
This is partially because of the clock, and partially because defense is not being aggressively played this year. Some of it might be due to the season just having started, but I have a feeling that there's just a shift away from the importance of defense, much like how in MLB there's been a shift away from speed and manufacturing runs, and it has been replaced with more home runs and more strikeouts.
Noticed final total score was 235. Who wins you, the bookie,or is it a push?
Fired actual last minute:
Chicago at New Orleans - Under 228
Anyway, I got my first decisive win in this early season. Now I'm 2-3-1, but the other win was a lucky one due to 4th quarter trash time.
From what I've seen this season, it's wise to stay away from unders with totals less than 220. I liked this one because it was both 228 AND had the usual factors I like when making an under pick.
Detroit at Toronto - Under 222 -115 (under 221.5 -110 ok)
Starts at 4:30pm PST
Serge Ibaka OUT
Winner.
Record now 3-3-1. I might be posting more picks than before, now that the season has been going for a few weeks.
Starting soon:
Denver at Milwaukee - Under 224.5
Very last minute:
Toronto/Orlando - Under 219
That's 4 wins in a row, running my record up to 5-3-1 after a 1-3-1 start.
More importantly, my wins have been decisive. Yesterday's pick won by over 30 points.
That's the most important factor in knowing you're handicapping well -- when your winners cover easily.
Very last minute:
Indiana at Charlotte - Under 216
More coming shortly
Well that Indiana game is a disaster. Be glad I didn't post it earlier.
Here's my other pick for the day, starting at 5:30pm PST:
Brooklyn at Dallas - Under 215
Wesley Matthews is still out.
Dennis Smith Jr, with an aching wrist, is going to play.
Starting in a few:
Sac at Golden State - Under 225
Dan: you made a comment that you were going to consider betting the unders when the total was over 220.
it made me curious so I started tracking the results when the total was 220 or more - I did not consider any bets when the total was over 230 - that's rare and seemed too high
startlingly, since November 17 the over has crushed - going 27-11
that's more than 2 standard deviations from break even
in some games they're scoring a tremendous amount of points - getting close to and over 250 fairly often
it may just be an anomaly - probably - I'm not sure
I tracked it using covers.com which has all the details of past games
linked are the results from Nov. 17 from covers.com if you want to double check my figures
I'm going to keep tracking. very interesting
https://www.covers.com/Sports/NBA/Ma...ate=2018-11-17
correction to my previous post - the over did not go 27-11 when over 220 since Nov. 17 - it went 24-11
Denver at Portland - Under 212
My record right now is 5-6-1 for the season.
Yeah, overs have killed it this year. That's why I've posted so few picks thus far. I'm having a hard time figuring things out since the scoring level in the NBA has changed so drastically.
Also of note, there has been tremendous line movement this year, as everyone seems to hammer the over, and Vegas keeps adjusting.
If you bet the opening lines in every single NBA game and went with OVER, you'd probably have done very well so far this season.
Weird NBA season so far.
Started off 1-3-1.
Then went 4-0 with all four winning easily.
Then went 0-4, with none of the 4 coming close.
Here's one today:
Portland at Dallas - Under 216.5 (216 ok)
Doncic will likely play. Dennis Smith is questionable.
Game at 5:40pm PT
Won with Dallas under yesterday, so let's do it again.
Dallas at New Orleans Under 226.5
Last minute:
Denver at Charlotte - Under 218.5
Currently 6-8-1
Toronto at Brooklyn - Under 221.5 (last minute)
I'm 7-9-1 now. Should have won both of those above, but a pointless foul with 1 second left in the Denver game screwed it, making the final total 220.
This is starting in about 10 minutes, but I really like it:
Boston at Washington - Under 220
Also Detroit at Charlotte - Under 217
And for those of you who missed those two, here's one more which doesn't start until 6pm PST
Miami at Utah - Under 212
Went 2-1 yesterday. Easy win with Utah. Unlucky loss with Boston after great 1H. Lucky win with Charlotte after 3 bad quarters and a great 4th.
Here's one for the night game:
Dallas at Phoenix - Under 210
You can get 210.5 or 211 on some books
Current record is 9-10-1
Nice, clean, easy win.
Back to .500
10-10-1
Now time to get winning.
FYI I'm on the fence on this one, but a little bit to the side of liking the bet, so I'm firing.
I don't want to bitch later that I "almost picked it" when it wins.
Golden State at Sacramento - Under 235.5 (236 available at some books)
GS/Sac game was a dud. Lost pretty badly.
Here's one I like better:
Starting at 4:35pm PT
Lakers at Brooklyn - Under 229
Here's one with a lower total, but I still think it's good:
Dallas at Denver - Under 208 (207.5 ok)
Starts at 6:05pm PT
Split 'em yesterday.
Finally jumping on the Utah under train.
In 5 of the past 11 games, one or both teams in Utah games finished with 91 or fewer points.
In 6 of the past 11 games, the total was 201 points or fewer.
Soooo...
Golden State at Utah - Under 223
All aboard the Utah Under Train!!!
Back to .500
12-12-1
Back on the Utah UNDER train!!
Starting around 7:05pm PST
Utah at Portland - Under 214
Portland is a very hit and miss team with their pace of place. Last game the total was 191. The prior game the total was 258! The prior game was 250. The prior game before that was 175.
Confused yet?
Public loves the over, btw. Books consistently moving the line slowly up, meaning they are also leaning over.
Bettor beware.
Starting in 5-10 min:
Phoenix at Washington - Under 226.5
So ridiculous.
Yahoo sports app indicated game was over 109-107.
Then I look a few min later and somehow that wasn't true, and it was actually 109-109 end 4th.
The original report showed a missed buzzer beater by Washington so I have no clue wtf they were reporting.
Nice way to toy wth my emotions, Yahoo.
Amazing how often it ends up OT if the game is close and I have the under.
the Nuggets (LOL) lead the Western Conference
they are 13-3 at home and 8-7 away
last season they were 31-10 at home and 15-26 away
I don't think I've ever seen a record that extreme even in college basketball
I wrote a poem about them, it's called:
THE DENVER NUGGETS
Where the air is thin
The home team will almost always win
I'm hoping the literary community takes notice and I get nominated for a Robert Frost award.;)
Rockies were the same way for many years. Last year they finally did better on the road.
The team acclimated to the thin air wins.
that was a strange game last night with the Lakers crushing the Warriors
on their 2s Durant was only 5 for 13; Curry was only 5 for 17; and Klay was only 2 for 7. on their home court
imagine that - Warriors getting complacent? % is .657 this year, last season was .707
Last minute NBA:
Charlotte at Brooklyn - Under 220.5
The Brooklyn under looked great through 3 quarters. Then a monster 4th (over 70 points) killed it, and it went into 2 OT anyway.
Second pick in a row of mine to go into OT. At least it already lost in the final minute of regulation.
You guys have some time to bet this, as it begins about 7:40pm PST.
I am jumping OFF the Utah under train, and ON the Portland under train.
Portland has scored under 100 points in 3 of their last 4 games.
Portland at Golden State - Under 226.5
3rd under pick of mine went to OT.
Keep in mind that NBA games go to OT 6% of the time.
However, unlike the other two, this one was winning by so much that it still managed to cover despite the OT -- with 7.5 points to spare. 110-109 final in OT.
I return to .500, 14-14-1.
I think I'm finally getting a better feel for this NBA season.
How can I say this, being 14-14-1?
The last 3 picks have gone this way:
Phoenix/Washington - under "won" by 8.5 at end of regulation, obviously lost in triple OT
Charlotte/Brooklyn - well ahead of pace to win under, until unusually high 4th quarter barely beat it in regulation, then went to triple OT anyway
Portland/Golden State - under "won" by 24.5 at end of regulation, went to OT, still won by 7.5
So despite being 1-2 in the last three picks, I should have actually been 2-1, and I could have easily been 3-0. I was also 6-3 in my past 9 prior to this.
Tonight's pick is all about LA.
Remember -- no Lebron, no Rondo!
Clippers at Lakers - Under 229
You can get under 230 -115 on Bovada right now.
Starts at 7:35pm PST
Orlando/Charlotte under 210.5
Starts 3p PT
15-15-1
First 2019 picks:
Orlando at Chicago - under 199.5
Philadelphia at Phoenix - under 226.5
Starting right now, but just bet Dallas/Boston under 212.5
Denver Nuggets vs Charlotte Hornets - 06.01
Under 206.5
Best of luck
Dallas/Boston pick was gold, and was leading almost the whole way.
Back over .500.
Still haven't been 2 over .500 all year, though. Maybe I can finally break that curse this weekend.
Sac/Phoenix
Under 227.5
Starting shortly
Last minute:
Brooklyn/Boston - Under 217
No Kyrie, no Hollis-Jefferson
Time to get back on the Utah under train:
Detroit at Utah - Under 208
Starts around 6pm PST
Hit 'em both!
4 wins in a row.
Now 19-15-1
Also 12-6 in last 18.
Golden State at Denver - Under 228
What an embarrassing loss.
Of course, 3 games went over 250 today, so it just wasn't a good day to pick unders.
Last minute:
Phoenix at Toronto - under 223.5
Here's an under starting in about 10 minutes:
Brooklyn at Orlando - Under 217
The NO Pelicans have scored 133 or more in 3 of their last 6 games.
Portland, a reliable UNDER team for awhile, has played 5 consecutive games where the total was over 220.
So how can I pick under for this matchup?
Because I can.
Oh, an Lillard is hurting (though he didn't appear that way on Wednesday), and Harkless is either going to be out or also hurting.
New Orleans at Portland - Under 233.5
And it starts in 3+ hours, so you have time to bet it.
Been considering this one all day, and I'm finally onboard.
As maddening as the Warriors can be to watch in an under bet, as they sink 3 after 3 to sink your hopes and dreams, I believe this one really will go under.
The Cousins factor (he's finally returning) probably will throw a wrench into everything, and with a line lie 242, if the slightest thing goes wrong with the fast scoring pace, you're in good shape with an under.
Plus the Clippers have actually been playing some defense lately.
Golden State at Clippers - Under 242 (you can get 243 on some accounts on Bovada, btw)
1-2 yesterday
Now 21-18-1 after 40 picks
Just one today:
Boston at Atlanta - Under 226
Starting 4:35pm PT
Houston at Philadelphia - Under 234
Some books have 234.5/235
Starts at 5:05pm PST, so you have a bit of time.
Disclaimer: I haven't been good at Philly unders this season
No Paul (obv), Capela, or Butler.
Embiid has back problems and is questionable. Charles Barkley publicly lambasted the 76ers recently for playing Embiid while he's hurting.
Won the last 2, to go up to 23-18-1.
Today's pick:
Portland at OKC - Under 226
Starts 5:05pm PST
Lost yesterday, to fall to 23-19-1.
The Portland under train has derailed.
But I've been ignoring another recent under train -- Memphis.
They've played 11 games in 2019.
Of those 11:
- 9 have seen them score 101 or fewer points
- 7 have seen them score 96 or fewer points
- 3 have seen them score 90 or fewer points
Wow.
Charlotte has also had a lot of low-scoring performances in 2019, save for that 135-point outburst against the Suns recently.
They've played 10 games in 2019. Of those 10:
- 9 of them have seen scores of 110 or fewer points
- 5 of them have seen scores of 97 or fewer points
Regarding injuries, the Hornets have been without Cody Zeller for 3 weeks, and the Grizz are missing Kyle Anderson. More recently, Marc Gasol has been suffering back issues and is "questionable", and also is on the trade block. So it's very possible he will sit (but don't necessarily count on it).
So here's the obvious pick:
Charlotte at Memphis - Under 208.5
Game starts 5:05pm PST
And now a semi-last-minute pick:
Houston at New York - Under 227
Starts 4:35pm PST
1-1 on Wednesday
Two today:
Battle of NYC: New York at Brooklyn - Under 221.5
Toronto at Houston - Under 229
Another 1-1 day. Both picks had a bad quarter. 67 in the 1st for NY/Brooklyn, but it still easily covered. 78 points in the 2nd for Tor/Hou, which actually had a decent chance to cover with 3 minutes left, but didn't come close.
Anyway, after much internal debate, I decided I'm not going to let the MEMPHIS UNDER train pass me by, just because of one bad pick.
Memphis once again scored under 100 (as did their opponent) last time out.
There are other reasons for this pick, which I won't bother getting into.
Indiana at Memphis - Under 202.5 (203 on Bovada right now)
Begins 5:05pm PST
Indiana under looked in the bag yesterday, and then 35 points in the final 3:48 (!!) sunk it. Very heartbreaking.
Here are two unders starting soon (4:05 PST or so)
Orlando at Houston - Under 221.5 (222 on some Bovada accounts)
Toronto at Dallas - Under 220 (221 on some Bovada)
Chris Paul coming back. Count on that throwing a wrench into the offense and the pace.
I'm going to start betting overs, too.
Stupid for me to ignore this.
I've seen so many games I think will go over, and I've been right a good deal of the time, but I've just dismissed them as "not an under, so I'm not betting it" rather than betting the other side.
Here's a list of today's games:
Was/Cle - Result: OVER, Public: Slightly OVER
Mil/Det - Result: OVER, Public: UNDER
OKC/Orl - Result: OVER, Public: Slightly OVER
Chi/Bkn - Result: OVER, Public: OVER
NO/Hou - Result: In progress (probably going OVER), Public: UNDER
Pho/SA - Results: Halftime (likely OVER), Public: More bets UNDER, more money OVER
Phi/LAL - Hasn't started yet, Public: More bets OVER, more money UNDER, both close to even both ways
So we could have a clean sweep of OVERS today.
Anyway, I'm going to bet that there will NOT be a clean sweep of overs, as I'm going to take the under in the Sixers/Lakers game.
Continuing with the theme of "Players coming back from injury who will impede the pace of scoring", we have Jimmy Butler finally returning tonight. Also, Joe Embiid has been having stomach issues, and will play, but actually skipped the shootaround. Even Wilson Chandler has some hamstring tightness.
On the Lakers side, there's no Lebron, no Kuzma, and no Ball (even though Ball has sucked anyway).
Philadelphia at Lakers - Under 230
Memphis at Charlotte - Under 203.5 (204 on Bovada)
Houston at Denver - Under 223.5 (224 on Bovada)
Forgot to post these. Already started a minute ago. Oops.
Well here they are:
Houston under 235
Atlanta under 222
I'm still counting them for my record and did bet them.
Okay, so here's a pick on the big game today.
Memphis at New York - Under 201
Knicks 5 straight games with fewer than 100 scored.
Memphis 4 of last 5 games with 97 or fewer scored.
Game starts at 10:05am PT.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rdxwk4RFLcE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSCdq1s5ekI
Atlanta at Washington - Under 230
Denver at Detroit - Under 209
Starting at about 4:05-4:10 PT
Terrible day yesterday.
A pair of 206.5 games for today:
Detroit at New York - Under 206.5 (starting now)
Minnesota at Memphis - Under 206.5 (starting 5:05pm PST)