Don't Pass bet - Guarantee win on 7 or point ( after point is established)

Hello. What if you could win money ( after the point has been established ) on either a 7 or the point?

I am new to craps, but interested in the math that is involved. I do not live anywhere close to a casino and only able to experiment with online craps simulators. I use the Crapsee program to simulate.
https://crapsee.com/


I have found out, with some spreadsheet formulas, I will be guaranteed to win money with the following:

Bet the Don’t Pass ( yes, I know the DP loses with 7 or 11), but after the point is made, with the specific combination of DP odds and place/buy bets, you can win money on either the 7 or the point.

Give this a try on a craps simulator or maybe even on a craps bubble machine in the casino:

Do a DP bet $5 and wait for the point. If the point is:

6-8 - then $4 on DP odds AND $8 place on the point.
Winnings - .33￠ with a 7 or .33￠ with point

5-9 - then $3 on DP odds AND $6 buy on the point.
Winnings - $1.00 with a 7 or .70￠ with point

4-10 - then $7 on DP odds AND $7 buy on the point.
Winnings - $1.50 with a 7 or $1.65 with point

Since I have no way to test this on an actual bubble craps machine, there is one thing that could impact this. Will a bubble craps machine allow a player to put any amount on the DP odds or is a player restricted to only betting 1x or 2x on the DP odds.

If a player can put any amount on the DP odds, then if you can get a point established betting on DP, then you can win money on either 7 or the point.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by weaz21

Will a bubble craps machine allow a player to put any amount on the DP odds or is a player restricted to only betting 1x or 2x on the DP odds.

If a player can put any amount on the DP odds, then if you can get a point established betting on DP, then you can win money on either 7 or the point.

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Yes, afaik you can bet any amount (up to the maximum).

Let's take a quick look at the probabilities:

The first thing that we start with is a Don't Pass bet, but in this case, we only really care about the Come Out Roll. In terms of the CO, we know that we lose 8/36 and win 3/36:

(3/36 * 5 ) - (8/36 * 5) = -0.69444444444

Having isolated the Come Out Roll with a $5 bet, we see that our expectation is losing $.069444444

In this case, we can look at the following probabilities:

LOSE $5 = 8/36 = .222222222222

WIN $5 = 3/36 = 0.08333333333

PUSH: 1/36 = 0.02777777777

I'm getting the decimal probabilities for a reason, you'll soon see why.

What we bet on and how much we bet is now contingent upon establishing a point number. We can establish a point number with varying probabilities:

Point of 6 or 8: 10/36 (combined)

Point of 5 or 9: 8/36 (combined)

Point of 4 or 10: 6/36 (combined)

Having established a Point of 6 or 8, it is your suggestion that we would want to Lay $4 on DP Odds and make a $8 Place Bet on the point number.

The first thing that I want to do is get our probabilities for each of the (functionally two) results:

Don't Pass Wins: (10/36 * 6/11) = 0.15151515151

Place Bet Wins: (10/36 * 5/11) = 0.12626262626

As we expect, 0.12626262626 + 0.15151515151 = 0.27777777777---which is 10/36

The next thing that we are going to do is confirm your findings as to the outcomes; I'm not saying you're wrong, but we do want to make sure.

Don't Pass Wins: DP = +$5 Odds = +$3.33 Place Bet = ($8)---NET RESULT +0.33

Place Bet Wins: DP + Odds Lose ($9) + Place Bet = $9.33---NET RESULT +0.33

With that, as you stated, any possible outcome leads to a profit of $0.33.

The next thing that we have to do is multiply that $0.33 result by the probability of its occurrence:

.33 * .2777777777 = 0.09166666664

The second step that we have to do is look at the Point Established of either five or nine:

Don't Pass + Odds Win: (8/36 * 6/10) = 0.13333333333

Place Bet Wins: (8/36 * 4/10) = 0.08888888888

0.08888888888 + .1333333333333 = 0.2222222222, which is 8/36, as it should be.

Don't Pass WINS: Don't Pass +$5 Odds Bet +$2 Place 5/9 ($6)---NET RESULT +$1

Place Bet Wins: Don't Pass + Odds ($8) Place 5/9 $8.70---NET RESULT $0.70***

***It seems that you are using a, 'Commission on Win Only' Buy Bet. That might be available on Bubble Craps; I don't actually know. I've only had use for a Craps machine for one play and a Commission on Buy 5/9 wouldn't have benefitted me on this play whatsoever, so I can't say i've ever investigated that. Anyway, we'll continue and assume that's available.

Don't Pass NET RESULT * Probability: 0.13333333333 * 1 = .133333333333

Place Bet NET RESULT * Probability: 0.08888888888 * .7 = 0.06222222221

The last thing that we have to do is figure out our fours and tens. We will start with the probability of each outcome:

Don't Pass Wins: (6/36 * 6/9) = 0.11111111111

Place Bet Wins: (6/36 * 3/9) = 0.05555555555

0.05555555555 + .11111111111111 = 0.16666666666---this is the same as 6/36, which it should be.

We are doing $7 DP Odds and $7 Buy Point.

Don't Pass Wins: Don't Pass +$5 Odds Wins +3.50 Buy Loses ($7)---NET PROFIT $1.50

Point Wins: Don't Pass + Odds ($12) Buy Wins $13.65---NET PROFIT $1.65

With that, we have to look at the expectation of each outcome:

0.11111111111 * 1.50 = 0.16666666666

0.05555555555 * 1.65 = 0.09166666665

SIMPLIFICATION, PROBABILITIES, EXPECTATION

Don't Pass Loses on CO: -(8/36 * 5) = -1.11111111111 (Probability: 0.22222222222)

Don't Pass Wins on CO: (3/36 * 5) = 0.41666666666 (Probability: 0.08333333333)

Push (Come Out): (1/36 * 0) = 0 (Probability: 0.02777777777)

Point of 6 or 8: 0.09166666664 (per above) (Probability: .27777777777)

Point of Five/Nine (Don't Pass Wins): .133333333333 (Probability: .133333333333)

Point of Five Nine (Don't Pass Loses): 0.06222222221 (Probability: 0.08888888888)

Point of Four/Ten (Don't Pass Wins): 0.16666666666 (Probability: 0.11111111111)

Point of Four/Ten (Don't Pass Loses): 0.09166666665 (Probability: 0.05555555555)

SUM OF PROBABILITIES: 0.22222222222 + 0.08333333333 + 0.02777777777 + .277777777777 + .133333333333 + 0.08888888888 + 0.11111111111 + 0.05555555555 = 0.99999999997 (Functionally 1, Rounding)

SUM OF EXPECTATIONS: 0.41666666666 + 0 + 0.09166666664 + .133333333333 + 0.06222222221 + 0.16666666666 + 0.09166666665 - 1.11111111111 = -0.14888888895

In short, every time you do this, you expect to lose $0.14888888895. That is more than double what you expect to lose on the $5 Don't Pass bet alone, though the Average House Edge, per dollar exposed, is going to be slightly lower because of the Odds bets. As you can see here:

5 * .0136 = 0.068 (ALWAYS)

8 * .0152 = 0.1216 * 10/36 = 0.03377777777

6 * .02 = .12 * 8/36 = 0.02666666666

7 * .0167 = 0.1169 * 6/36 = 0.01948333333

SUM: 0.01948333333 + 0.02666666666 + 0.03377777777 + .068 = 0.14792777776

As you can see, this confirms our expected loss, with errors due to rounding. We can compare this to the average total exposed:

(12/36 * 5) + (10/36 * 17) + (8/36 * 14) + (6/36 * 19) = 12.6666666667

0.14792777776/12.6666666667 = 0.01167850877. With our less rounded expected loss, we get 0.14888888895/12.6666666667 = 0.01175438596 or 1.175438596%

The reason that the total House Edge is lower is because of the Odds bets we are making. For example, our $7 Buy 4/10 bet has a House Edge of well under 2%, so combining that with an Odds bet of the same amount, with a House Edge of 0%, we get an average House Edge of under 1% (less than DP) for those two bets.

Anyway, I hope you find this helpful and entertaining. I am going to reserve the rights to use this material for a future article (in which VCT will be cited) on one of our other sites. Thank you for the interesting question.

Maybe I'm missing something here?

Because I come up with a similar result. Coming at this a bit different.

You lose:
7, 11 - 8x5 = ($40)
Then you recover:
2, 3 - 3x5 = $15
I figured an avg of about 84c per point resolution so
Points - 24x.84 = $20.16

This gives you a loss of about ($4.84) every 36 roll cycle or about 13.4c per roll.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jdog

Because I come up with a similar result. Coming at this a bit different.

You lose:
7, 11 - 8x5 = ($40)
Then you recover:
2, 3 - 3x5 = $15
I figured an avg of about 84c per point resolution so
Points - 24x.84 = $20.16

This gives you a loss of about ($4.84) every 36 roll cycle or about 13.4c per roll.

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I just did it on a total House Edge basis on the assumption that someone is 100% committed to making the conditional bets described; I see no reason to care about a per roll basis because the original question suggests that the bets will remain until resolution.

In any event, here's what I get as far as loss per roll for each bet made, at least, when it is made:

We can do a really quick check:

DP: 5 * .0136 = 0.068/3.5 = 0.01942857142 (Per Roll)

Place 6/8 for $8 = 8 * .0152 = 0.1216/3.3 = 0.03684848484 (Per Roll, When Bet)

Buy 5/9 for $6 (Commission Win Only): 6 * .02 = .12/3.57 = 0.03361344537 (Per Roll, When Bet)

Buy 4/10 for $7 (Commission Win Only): 7 * .0167 = 0.1169/3.98 = 0.02937185929 (Per Roll, When Bet)

I have the player losing about fifteen cents every time they attempt to do this. I think it's tough to standardize per roll relative to the Don't Pass bet (if that's what you did) because the number of expected rolls (after the point is established) is going to vary somewhat, but only the Place/Buy bets care about that.

I have the player losing roughly $0.15 for each completed attempt. If the DP averages 3.5 rolls to resolution, then that would be roughly 36/3.5 = 10.29 (rounded) resolutions per 36 rolls; 10.29 * .15 = $1.5435 expected loss per 36 rolls, or 0.042875, per roll, (roughly) which seems to make more sense when you look at the expected losses, per roll, for each individual bet. It seems like the worst case scenario (on a loss per roll basis) would have you losing about 5.63 cents per roll (Place 6/8), but that also lasts for the fewest number of rolls. You'd still also only be taking the DP loss per roll for the CO.

I'll never forget the time, me and my father Alan Mendelson were driving back from a losing craps trip, and we decided to stop at state line to "Get Even Before Leaving" and we decided to bet the don't. If I told you, you wouldn't believe me, but these people hit point after point after point after point it was absolutely insane... I think that was the first and only time we ever bet the darkside...