Thoughts about the X Train's progress.

The other day, the high speed rail project company told Vegas tourism officials that its future hinges on getting federal money.

But there is another project which does not want federal money and is using private capital and investor capital and that is the Las Vegas Railway Express, also known as the X Train.

The X Train was supposed to be operating by now, but the latest estimate is that it will have a special run for this New Year's Eve and then begin regular service between Fullerton (Orange County) and Vegas on January 4th. There will not be a train stop in Los Angeles.

Here are my thoughts about the X Train's progress:

Some of you may know that the X Train project was featured on my show. They are making progress but the progress has been slow, and they still have a long way to go.

Construction on the train station behind the Plaza in downtown (the old Amtrak station) was delayed because they didn't get the construction permits six months ago. Last fall they said the permits to start construction would be obtained in January. So far there is no announcement that they obtained the permits.

And last fall came word that they needed to raise $100-million and so far there is no announcement that the money is in the bank. About half of the money would be used to create sidings so they could share freight rails, and half the money would be used for construction of the train station, obtaining the rail cars, and general operations.

The rail cars have not yet been purchased, and they need to be renovated because they are used rail cars.

They still don't have an agreement to use the freight rails in California -- only clearance for the Nevada portion of the route has been obtained.

And they hired a public relations firm in Vegas that has been pumping out a lot of press releases which make it seem that progress is being made when really nothing "final" has happened.

However... it is very possible that all of these strings could be tied up quickly and in a matter of months so that they can meet the year end start date.

The first clue that they have a realistic start date is when they start marketing the train including advertising, advance booking, hiring of employees, making deals with hotels and casinos, etc. I would estimate those activities would be going on six months before the actual start. So until you see any start of "marketing" or "hiring" or promotions with hotels and casinos don't expect the train to start for six months.

Yet X Train is the closest to start of all three competing projects. There is the high speed rail project that could be five or more years away, and a second project that also wants to use existing rail tracks.

Personally, if the X Train can't start before the 2013 holidays, starting on January 4th of 2014 is insignificant because they missed the big seasonal rush. If they can't get going before the holidays they just as easily could start up in February for the trade shows, or in May. But if they miss a start in May they will miss the summer tourist season not only for Californians going to Vegas but also Nevadans coming to California.