Five Good Reasons to Not Bet Bowl Games
Most gambling sites and handicapping sites are not percent-of-profit enterprises. They tend to promote betting each and every week. They tend to shoot for that "snowball" gambling effect -- as stakes rise and games are allegedly more important, wagering on those games seems required. Well, I'm here to tell you why risking much on bowls is a bad idea.
1) Coaches are going elsewhere. Thirty percent of head coaches for bowl teams have either already left the teams or will leave after the bowls. The percentage of assistant coaches is even higher. People are preparing for their move, buying a house, negotiating a salary. Sometimes the coaches who stay are in a Catch 22, as would have been the case for, say, Mullen at Mississippi State had he not resigned prior to the bowl game to take the Florida job. If he hadn't resigned, he would have been in the absurd position of coaching a game wherein if his teams wins, it's not a good thing for the team he will be coaching next year in terms of PR and recruiting.
2) Teams lose players prior to the bowl who simply quit to go into the NFL draft. So a team like Texas, for instance, loses two defensive starters and their best tackle with Missouri on deck in the bowl game. This means, in essence, that key elements of the teams that created regular season profiles for those teams are missing. Who wants to try to predict what a matchup will look like between teams playing significantly different personnel than what they used for three months? I repeat myself, but it's absurd.
3) Time gap. With the time between end-of-season and the bowls, teams can (and occasionally have) completely revamped their offenses and defenses. They can show up with utterly different sets and personnel alignments if they choose to do so. Don't get me started on Jimmy Johnson coaching Oklahoma State 40 years ago and being up for the Miami (FL) job, only nobody knew it. He completely changed his offense for the bowl game. It cost me.
4) Drugs, curfews, and being bad to the bone. Betting bowls early may seem like a great way to get the best of numbers, until some morons get in a hassle at a strip club at 3 AM and their suspension moves the line the wrong way three points. It happens, and unless the bowl is in Boise, you're at risk for unexpected issues.
5) CTE as an un-motivator. For seniors who have NFL aspirations but aren't good enough to declare for the draft, and for seniors who don't have NFL aspirations, going to a bowl doesn't seem like the best idea in the world. You're not getting extra scholarship money because you're going to a bowl. What you are doing is risking extra hits and extra chance of injury during the bowl practices as well as the bowl game. Why would any senior welcome that? It's a tribute to football culture that many, if not most, players will indeed put forth some effort. But realistically, why risk anything for a meaningless game? Again, you may get a performance not in line with that which you saw for three months during the college regular season.
