Unders in the NBA -- a recent trend

So here are some interesting trends this year with totals:

When two low-scoring teams play each other, it's almost always going under. This happened again today, despite the line going as a low as 206. Memphis/Cleveland finished with 192.

I considered the Memphis/Cleveland game today, but talked myself out of it (ugh). Then I considered the Knicks under. I talked myself out of it because Charlotte has had a lot of fairly high scoring games this season. However, that easily covered as well.

The Knicks started out the season going over twice out of the first 3, with totals of 228, 198, and 240. However, since then, they've played 8 games, and had the following totals: 181, 183, 208, 221, 212, 190, 203, 197. All but the 221 total went under -- mostly way under. Today's line was like 211.

They've also scored 88 or 89 points in their past 3 contests.

The Cavs have been similar, but even more reliable to score low:

First two games were 235 and 247 (OT). Since then? 214, 181, 218, 187, 186, 199, 184, 190, 192. Almost all of these were under, as well. Today's final line of 206 easily covered under. The Cavs themselves have not seen 100 points since December 27.

What about the Grizzlies?

Again, similar. Started out scoring a lot, but Morant hasn't played since December 28 due to injury. In the first game without Morant, the total was still 233, going over (though Memphis only scored 107).

However, in 2021, we've seen these totals: 201, 202, 186, 184, 225, 192

As long as Morant remains out, it's probably wise to look at them for unders, as well.


It is possible these trends will change, of course, but these three teams have been incredibly reliable for the past 6-9 games regarding low totals.