Tweet about high variance bonus slot

Tweet is here: https://mobile.twitter.com/PokerBrad...91862775975937

“Paid back under 50% while chasing. Need an $1100 bonus to break even on this one...“

The other important detail was it was $2 per spin. So the math works out to: assuming 50% loss rate, $1,100 loss is $2,200 in coin in and at $2 per spin, that is 1,100 spins to get the bonus.

First, that is a lot of spins and a lot of time and time is money. Time being stuck at a machine is time not spent looking for other plays. In economics, we call this opportunity cost.

Second, you need to ask yourself does it make sense to lose $1,100 on a game at $2 a spin? Should you even lose $1,100 in the first place? The problem with losing money is now you have to spend time to recover your losses. I train hustlers to thinks about two things: (1) what is the most likely outcome from this play and (2) what is the range of outcome, e.g. can you afford the loss at the bottom of the range.

Don’t worry, guy gets $110.28 during the bonus round over 128 spins so he lost under $1,000 on the play.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PokerBrad...92079512449025

This is the type of high variance crap I avoid: it can take a long time, I could be stuck for a large amount, and the bonus round can be crappy. I like Warren Buffett’s investment advice: Do not lose money. If you don’t lose a sizable amount on a play, then you don’t waste the entire shift or session trying to get that money back.

I understand hustlers can get unlucky, but the hustler has control on playing high variance bonus machines. It’s much easier to recover from a $100, $200 or $300 loss from being unlucky.

Here is the last thought to consider: If the game had a RTP or 90% and base game did return 50%, then the bonus round accounts for 40% of the return. But to get that 40%, most of your bonus rounds will be crap to account for the disproportionately large awards to blend to a 40% number. That disproportionately large bonus is a hook that reels in unsuspecting hustlers.

Here is two more tweets from a different person: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnSmi31...07263667294208
“Yeah i had one i took at 255 and it went to 309 after 7 hours and 120 wheels speed stopping the whole way. Right before it hit I almost said “Mr. Moss, I have to let you go.......” I call plays like this “Widow makers”

High variance play could be SEVEN HOURS on a machine, which to me is akin to a prison sentence. It redefines the term “stuck”.

His other tweet was: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnSmi31...04721298264064

“ Well I understand wheel freq. on 4x 75cent is 1/60. I played 75c 255 4x once and it took me 7 hours and 120 wheels so 2 cycles. Im sure 185 was +Ev but the opportunity cost of being stuck on a 75cent play for potentially over 10 hours kept me away.”

Guy understands a ball and chain for possibly 10 hours and gets opportunity cost.

I can make $100 / hr scavenging and maybe $200 / hr during prime time. These are my opportunity costs ... being stuck on a high variance bonus machine has real consequences. It puts me out of action and lets my competition get the easy money.

Food for thought.