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In case anyone is interested, I do have Cincinnati at 150-1 to win the whole shebang. They have about as much chance as me consummating my date with Elizabeth Hurley Saturday night.
I also had Arizona State at 150-1. They were a bit of a disappointment from the coaching and QB side of things. They were a bit of a mess. It's time for Edwards to retire.
This is why they call them long shots.
Well, looks like a nice profit. I won't ask Cincinnati to beat anybody, and I don't think they will. I'll just take the money and on we go. Cincinnati did a real fine job of preparing well and playing well against the best teams on their schedule and looking like hell against the scrub teams.
For my next miracle, I'll select an NFC team next week to win the conference.
What am I missing RED in regards to a nice profit? What money are you taking, or are you talking about something else over the course of the season? I’m not seeing the hedge opportunity.
Alabama: +110
Georgia: +135
Michigan: +700
Cincinnati: +1400
I’m sure I’m overlooking something here.
I’m a moron, was thinking about this all day and didn’t think of money lines. Looking like Alabama is around -700 ML. Not looking for secrets, but in this case have you calculated the prospective ML if they would beat AL versus both potential opponents? And then try to determine the maximum risk to reward possibilities if they win this week?Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Seems that would hurt the potential profit since you are betting less on Alabama this week but would be needed to guarantee a profit. All this has my head going since I’ve never bet much on futures but it’s more of a hedging discussion that can be used in other situations obviously.
By the way, your PM’s are full.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozI’m a moron, was thinking about this all day and didn’t think of money lines. Looking like Alabama is around -700 ML. Not looking for secrets, but in this case have you calculated the prospective ML if they would beat AL versus both potential opponents? And then try to determine the maximum risk to reward possibilities if they win this week?Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Seems that would hurt the potential profit since you are betting less on Alabama this week but would be needed to guarantee a profit. All this has my head going since I’ve never bet much on futures but it’s more of a hedging discussion that can be used in other situations obviously.
By the way, your PM’s are full.
Thanks, Boz. I cleaned it out a little.
I have the Bearcats at 150-1. So even if I lay the -800 or thereabouts (Bearcats have as much chance as Blutarski's GPA), I'm good to go. The plan was to have them play Georgia, which would have depressed the moneyline because Cincinnati almost beat Georgia last year in a bowl game. But then Alabama blew up the plan. If I had an ounce of foresight, I would have moneylined Alabama versus Georgia or taken them with the points to smooth this out. Instead, it's a classic worst case scenario.
I don't worry about precision with this stuff. I just want my money back and then some, since it's a worst case scenario. I don't see a downside to betting Alabama at +110, but I'll wait until we see who's sitting out, if anybody, due to NFL careers and covid. The simple thing is to lay the -800. You'll double or triple your money if moneylines hold steady. And Michigan could beat Georgia.
I remember being in a similar situation about 25 years ago when I took SD at 100-1 to win the SB, then saw them matched up versus the 49ers as 17-point underdogs. It was disgusting. I laid the -1100 and made a decent profit, but it didn't feel like it. Fortunately, I was able to bet with a semi-famous illegal book from your wife's old neck of the woods who allowed me to bet without putting up the money in advance.
Still trying to wrap my head around the best choice for the situation, but I think I understand what you are doing doubling or tripling your money. Since I’m bored I’m going to put some of this down and you can let me know what you think if you have time. And 2 or 3x your money just seems such a small return on such a ticket.
Using simple round numbers in a situation like yours (not my business on the actual amount of the ticket) here are my thoughts.
Assuming a $100 ticket, it’s potentially worth 15k. If you bet 8k on Bama ML this week, you win $1k, clearing $900. C wins, you are now down 8k with a live ticket in the Championship. At this point I would think the other survivor would be -250 to -400 depending how they looked and how Cincy found a way to beat bama. But that’s pure speculation on my behalf.
So if Cincy wins this week one couldn’t guarantee a win if my math is correct without Cincy winning the Championship and cashing the original ticket on an 8k bet. So it’s all on the game this week on how much one would want to risk on Bama, but there is no way to guarantee a win if Cincy wins this week unless you bet roundabouts 5k or less on Alabama depending on the Championship ML.
Does that make sense and what am I missing?
I agree Alabama should win but watching them barely beat Florida this year, and knowing Auburn handed them the game with the RB going out of bounds late, I’m not writing the Bearcats off yet.
Thanks.
Using ballpark simple multiplier math, to break even and get your original wager back, you have to lay -800 on Alabama. Then, in a worst case scenario (Georgia blows out Mich), to still break even and get back your original wager plus the Alabama hedge, you will be laying -500 at worst. I don't think, if Bearcats beat Alabama, the number would be anywhere near that high, especially after Cincy lost to Georgia 24-21 or thereabouts in the bowl, but let's say -500. So you are down your original wager plus the eight, which is nine. Now, to break even, you have to lay 45 to get the nine back. At 150-1, you still have leverage.
So the profit is there, but it's no fun.
For the record, I have somewhere around $600 on the Bearcats. Not a huge bet (especially considering some Super Bowl odds bets in my past), but I thought the Bearcat conference was pretty loaded, so I didn't step out. Houston figured to be good; SMU was going to be good. Memphis looked to be decent. Cincy actually had fewer people back than many of the teams.