Good call on the Lakers over...I thought that total was way too high...they haven`t been scoring as much with Ball out...good thing they`re allowing more lol
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Nice call on the Charlotte game - outright winner, no spread required. Omri Casspi, was the difference maker - he twisted his ankle the game before and was unavailable for the Charlotte game. He's been a huge factor off the bench for the Warriors - quite a find.
Philly under 214
Looking at it all day, decided to fire
3-0 yesterday taking me to 98-62-2
Starting in 30 min:
NBA
Washington -8 -105 (-110 ok)
Washington Under 212 -105 (-110 ok)
More later
You guys missed me going 0-4 and then 1-2. (I only posted 2 of the losers above).
So my record is 99-68-2.
Sacramento under 205 (204.5 -110 ok)
That's it for today.
honest man
impressive so far still
but I am not jumping on the Dan wagon....just for the reason what happened this weekend.
like a craps table...it can turn on a dime
Detroit +2 or +115 money line
Minnesota under 212.5 (212 ok)
someone accepted a bet on memphis today?
Split my two bets. Minnesota under won easily, Detroit was close until the final minutes, then fell apart.
Record now 100-70-2.
In case you're wondering, I did not pick anything on January 4. There were only 2 games, and I did not have any lean on either the sides or the totals.
Hopefully the day off will allow me to turn around my recent 2-8 slump, which is the worst 10-game slump I've had this season. I did have at least one encouraging result, which was winning that Minnesota under by a wide margin on Wednesday, so hopefully that's a sign that I'm turning things around. The other pick, on Detroit, could have gone either way, as it was tied with just a few minutes left.
Damn. Even if you change the "probability of success on a single trial" to 51% or 52%, it's still damn impressive.
I haven't been looking at this thread, but someone the other day told me I should take a look.
Idk what the hell it is you're doing, but keep it up. You're at a 58% win rate (100/170) right now, which is about right on par as what you quoted your win rate was earlier in the season, at 60%.
Yo btw I just signed up on PFA as "RS_". Can you activate my account? And if possible, remove the _ from my username? Gotta git to postin'.
Just curious if you have a break down of the side bets and the over/under bets. Just speculating but it seems like you may be doing better with the under/over bets (mostly under). It might be that the real winning percentage is on those over/under bets and the side bets are just 50/50 ish.
Here we go again... after a day of zero picks.
Minnesota +3.5 -115 (Bovada -- -3 -110 ok, moneyline of +132 or better ok)
Dallas under 210.5
Memphis under 205.5 (205 ok)
Memphis +5 -115 (4.5 - 110 ok, moneyline +165 or better ok)
The sharps APPROVE of all 4 plays (though I decided upon them before seeing what the sharps liked).
KewlJ, I have not broken these down, and I don't have a list of all my past bets, except as listed in separate posts on forums. So it's a pain in the ass to analyze.
From my own personal observation, yes, my totals seem to be doing better.
Ok so, I took a look. I can't promise I didn't miss any picks as there was a lot to scroll through on that thread, but I think this is pretty accurate. It at least gives a pretty good indication of a breakdown. I also didn't include any in-game wagers, which you did a couple of early in the year.
I get 91 total picks which is close to 50% of all picks. Over under picks are 56-35. So of your roughly +30 win vs losses, 70% or 21 are via totals.
Sort of what we were suspecting.
However, on Dec 11 you were 37-17 on Total's picks and have cooler down considerably, only 19-18 since. Something worth watching.
One final note. On Overs you are a healthy 9-4. You don't pick them often, but are strong when you do.
Oh and one other thing: When betting total unders, one thing that can always bite you in the ass, is the possibility of overtime. Seems like you have been bitten a few times recently. I have no data on whether that is statistically abnormal, though.
Oh and having looked through THAT thread a question? What is with all the gay signage in your posts? ;)
Pulled off a lucky 2-2 in the Memphis game. For much of the game, both of those were losing, which would have sent me to 0-4.
The 4th barely had any scoring, and a last-minute 3 changed a tie to a win on the side.
KewlJ, thanks for looking up those picks. Yes, seems like my totals have been better. I also have noticed that my overs do well typically when I pick them, but it's a lot harder to find a value over.
RS_, I validated you on PFA.
One of these already started (as I posted it like 3 minutes before gametime on PokerFraudAlert), but here are 3 picks:
Brooklyn +3.5 -115 (moneyline +140 is actually what I bet)
Houston under 211.5
Cleveland under 221.5
Also
Milwaukee under 214
That's it.
GL to me and whoever else follows
I hope all of them win....at least for my sake. :)
I honestly feel kinda bad when people bet my picks and they lose.
Makes me a little nervous now because I've been so cold in the past week.
The funny thing is that fairly few people were betting my picks when I was winning 75% of what I was posting, and those winners were often blowing out the line by 20+ points.
Now I'm 4-10 in the last 14, with three of those wins being close, and people are following.
LOL
Did you get in the Brooklyn one? I'm guessing no.