Sorry that this may sound stereotypical, but for being Jewish, Alan has very poor financial sense.
Printable View
Sorry that this may sound stereotypical, but for being Jewish, Alan has very poor financial sense.
You have way too big a chip on your shoulder to be a winner.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Take your cookie and go to bed, child.
I'll say this about that, and you'll see why you are so extraordinarily wrong....as usual.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbThe day is irrelevant. Only your LIFETIME results are what matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonIf I play 8/5 Bonus poker at $5 a hand and I hit quad aces on the first hand for $400 and quit for the day, have I a profit for the day?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Yes or no?
What is wrong with that?
I'll answer: nothing is wrong with that.
So why do you challenge it with long term gobbledygook?
Please tell?
"Only LIFETIME results matter". By definition, that statement does not come into play until the moment you die. At that point however, your final tally is meaningless. And you spent your WHOLE LIFE worrying about what casino play could've gone better, what didn't go well, and how you could have done things differently in order to have had more profitable results overall....none of which matter as you take your last breath. Thus, your claim is of no value whatsoever.
Now let's review the former "the day (gambling results) is irrelevant". This is as dumb and ignorant as "it's better to have made a good bet and lose than to have made a bad bet and win".
The reason is obvious. People place bets hoping to win, not lose. If a bet....ANY bet....wins, it is a very good thing. Nobody cares at that point if it was placed in a +EV or -EV situation, and nobody cares about what happened yesterday or how it happened, nor what might happen tomorrow, or why.
Similarly, winning TODAY gives every casino player a GOOD feeling. This is what's called ENHANCING one's life, which is what waking up everyday is all about. Anybody who claims they don't care if they win or lose today as they head out to casinos (or if they foolishly claim that their #1 goal that day is to, eh-em, "bank EV" :) ) then they can't even lie to themselves with a straight face.
You have a lot to learn....as if no one ever noticed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerI'll say this about that, and you'll see why you are so extraordinarily wrong....as usual.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbThe day is irrelevant. Only your LIFETIME results are what matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
"Only LIFETIME results matter". By definition, that statement does not come into play until the moment you die. At that point however, your final tally is meaningless. And you spent your WHOLE LIFE worrying about what casino play could've gone better, what didn't go well, and how you could have done things differently in order to have had more profitable results overall....none of which matter as you take your last breath. Thus, your claim is of no value whatsoever.
Now let's review the former "the day (gambling results) is irrelevant". This is as dumb and ignorant as "it's better to have made a good bet and lose than to have made a bad bet and win".
The reason is obvious. People place bets hoping to win, not lose. If a bet....ANY bet....wins, it is a very good thing. Nobody cares at that point if it was placed in a +EV or -EV situation, and nobody cares about what happened yesterday or how it happened, nor what might happen tomorrow, or why.
Similarly, winning TODAY gives every casino player a GOOD feeling. This is what's called ENHANCING one's life, which is what waking up everyday is all about. Anybody who claims they don't care if they win or lose today as they head out to casinos (or if they foolishly claim that their #1 goal that day is to, eh-em, "bank EV" :) ) then they can't even lie to themselves with a straight face.
You have a lot to learn....as if no one ever noticed.
As someone who wagers professionally, I need to correct the post above. Specifically the line, "If a bet...ANY bet...wins, it is a very good thing." This line is fundamentally incorrect. Unless it's the final bet you're making in a season (for sports) or for your lifetime, it's a bad line and bad advice.
The reasons are pretty obvious. So I'll give everyone a few minutes to figure out the whys and comment. Then I'll report back with my very obvious take on it.
Anybody that thinks that betting on something and getting paid LESS THAN true odds when it wins but when it loses they simultaneously pay MORE THAN true odds, is a complete fucking moron!
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Well, jbjb, there's certainly that!
The main problem as I see it is that winning bets is a long-term problem if you have early, immediate, or suddenly stunning success employing a non-optimal or mathematically unsound strategy. Can you imagine if you start off sports betting and you hit something like monet's parlay? How long would it take you to shake off the idea that parlay betting is the way to do things?
There are all kinds of examples from all gambling arenas. Imagine being a hold 'em novice and going all in on a river flush draw with just one other player in the hand, and you hit it. You win the tournament, say, and now you did it with a fundamentally unsound decision. How long does it take before your perception that what you did was right bites you in the ass, say in a bigger tournament? Or if you make a sports bet early in the season, and you win, but it turns out you had the wrong team, but you are unable to recognize that? How many games does that cost you down the road? You're trying to create a matrix of relationships between teams, and you misread one of those teams badly, so everything you do immediately going forward is corrupted by your perception, simply because you won. Or you can't win playing video poker, so you invent some Rube Goldberg series of rules and denomination changes, and -- lo and behold -- you make the big score. Now that winning big score puts you on a non-optimal path going forward, maybe for years.
And because people usually don't reduce level of play in the weeks and months after winning, those winning bets can wind up costing you even more.
The problem with the "all wins are good" attitude is that it emphasizes immediate results over pristine displays of skill. Immediate results are transient. Skill and judgement are not transient. It's like Chris "Jesus" Ferguson said -- he can be beaten, but he can't be outplayed. The goal is to not be outplayed.
It's a cliche and another way to say the same thing: the objective is to make every bet a good bet.
And you wonder why you're regularly referred to as "a ditz" and "weird" by so many.....Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerI'll say this about that, and you'll see why you are so extraordinarily wrong....as usual.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
"Only LIFETIME results matter". By definition, that statement does not come into play until the moment you die. At that point however, your final tally is meaningless. And you spent your WHOLE LIFE worrying about what casino play could've gone better, what didn't go well, and how you could have done things differently in order to have had more profitable results overall....none of which matter as you take your last breath. Thus, your claim is of no value whatsoever.
Now let's review the former "the day (gambling results) is irrelevant". This is as dumb and ignorant as "it's better to have made a good bet and lose than to have made a bad bet and win".
The reason is obvious. People place bets hoping to win, not lose. If a bet....ANY bet....wins, it is a very good thing. Nobody cares at that point if it was placed in a +EV or -EV situation, and nobody cares about what happened yesterday or how it happened, nor what might happen tomorrow, or why.
Similarly, winning TODAY gives every casino player a GOOD feeling. This is what's called ENHANCING one's life, which is what waking up everyday is all about. Anybody who claims they don't care if they win or lose today as they head out to casinos (or if they foolishly claim that their #1 goal that day is to, eh-em, "bank EV" :) ) then they can't even lie to themselves with a straight face.
You have a lot to learn....as if no one ever noticed.
As someone who wagers professionally, I need to correct the post above. Specifically the line, "If a bet...ANY bet...wins, it is a very good thing." This line is fundamentally incorrect. Unless it's the final bet you're making in a season (for sports) or for your lifetime, it's a bad line and bad advice.
The reasons are pretty obvious. So I'll give everyone a few minutes to figure out the whys and comment. Then I'll report back with my very obvious take on it.
Winning any bet has nothing to do with "advice". It plain and quite simply is what anyone wants to do....with ANY bet. Every time. Whether or not they made the right bet, the wrong bet, or they made the bet by mistake. Psychobabbling over what the "true odds" were at the time of the bet is completely irrelevant. That's why one glance at your follow-on post here renders it unreadable.
Kepp it simple, stupid. Or maybe you prefer to keep it stupid, simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
You're playing max bet on two $5 (let us know if these stakes are too high for you and I'll adjust to fit your shortcomings) VP machines, side by side.
Machine A is a full-pay DW machine with a progressive royal of $49,365. +EV heaven these days. Machine B is a 7/5 DDBP with a non-progressive royal at $20,000, but you THOUGHT it said 10/6. You end up with a non-winning razgu on Machine A. Machine B deals you a royal.
But you're sitting there crying like a baby...those crocodile tears running down your horrified cheeks. You are mad as hell over the fact that you just won $19,975 because you know it was a so-called "bad bet, while you can't hold back your sheer excitement over losing $25 on the other machine. Why? Because it nonetheless was a "good bet" since it was in a +EV situation. Think of all the EV you just banked! That should help soothe the torment of the big "-EV" win. :)
Waaa....waaa....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerKepp it simple, stupid. Or maybe you prefer to keep it stupid, simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
You're playing max bet on two $5 (let us know if these stakes are too high for you and I'll adjust to fit your shortcomings) VP machines, side by side.
Machine A is a full-pay DW machine with a progressive royal of $49,365. +EV heaven these days. Machine B is a 7/5 DDBP with a non-progressive royal at $20,000, but you THOUGHT it said 10/6. You end up with a non-winning razgu on Machine A. Machine B deals you a royal.
But you're sitting there crying like a baby...those crocodile tears running down your horrified cheeks. You are mad as hell over the fact that you just won $19,975 because you know it was a so-called "bad bet, while you can't hold back your sheer excitement over losing $25 on the other machine. Why? Because it nonetheless was a "good bet" since it was in a +EV situation. Think of all the EV you just banked! That should help soothe the torment of the big "-EV" win. :)
Waaa....waaa....
Lol. Rob's a moron. His dumbass would've bet 50 credits and won $12.50 LESS!!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayQuote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerKepp it simple, stupid. Or maybe you prefer to keep it stupid, simple.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
You're playing max bet on two $5 (let us know if these stakes are too high for you and I'll adjust to fit your shortcomings) VP machines, side by side.
Machine A is a full-pay DW machine with a progressive royal of $49,365. +EV heaven these days. Machine B is a 7/5 DDBP with a non-progressive royal at $20,000, but you THOUGHT it said 10/6. You end up with a non-winning razgu on Machine A. Machine B deals you a royal.
But you're sitting there crying like a baby...those crocodile tears running down your horrified cheeks. You are mad as hell over the fact that you just won $19,975 because you know it was a so-called "bad bet, while you can't hold back your sheer excitement over losing $25 on the other machine. Why? Because it nonetheless was a "good bet" since it was in a +EV situation. Think of all the EV you just banked! That should help soothe the torment of the big "-EV" win. :)
Waaa....waaa....
I couldn't even tell you optimum 10 coin 5-hand play (or 3 or 10) because I never play it straight up.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbLol. Rob's a moron. His dumbass would've bet 50 credits and won $12.50 LESS!!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayQuote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Nigh Hand
Nigh Hand
Mr. Play
Thanks M8.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
There was a town called Stewpidville, Iowa where people would bet me on coin flips.
If they won the flip I would pay them $800. If I won the flip they would pay me $1,000.
Here is the kicker though: I had to play as long as they wanted but they could quit anytime.
Even though I had big positive EV on the coin flips due to the $200 difference in payouts on a 50/50 proposition it just wasn’t enough to overcome their ability to quit while they were ahead.
One after another they would line up and if they won their first coin flip for $800 they would just lock up their winnings and leave for the day $800 richer at my expense.
If they lost the $1,000 on the first flip often they would stop loss out for the day and not come back again until the next day.
Really no way for me to make money on this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
this does not compute at all
why wouldn't you win 50% of the tosses and therefore have a profit_______________??????
.
Gobbledegook!Quote:
Originally Posted by Half SmokeQuote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
this does not compute at all
why wouldn't you win 50% of the tosses and therefore have a profit_______________??????
.
Even with such strong positive EV, it is simply not enough to overcome the dent people who quit while ahead (for the day)
or people who stop loss out (for the day) will put in the positive EV.
Maybe if I could have got them to only quit while ahead or stop loss out for 5 hours and not a whole day it would have been different.
But once the profit is “locked up” it means you can’t get access to it anymore, at least for the day.
What do you think “locked up” means anyway?
DGenBen,
I hear the online Gaming Today is looking for new columnists. You can probably get a nice reference from one of the VCT regulars. If you keep writing with such insight, you'll wind up with your photo on the VCT online front page!
Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I forget to mention though that you have to watch out for casino personnel when quitting while you’re ahead otherwise you might get the dreaded tap on the shoulder and the “Sir, we noticed you are quitting while you are ahead. We don’t want your action here anymore.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGenBenGobbledegook!Quote:
Originally Posted by Half SmokeQuote:
Originally Posted by DGenBen
this does not compute at all
why wouldn't you win 50% of the tosses and therefore have a profit_______________??????
.
Even with such strong positive EV, it is simply not enough to overcome the dent people who quit while ahead (for the day)
or people who stop loss out (for the day) will put in the positive EV.
Maybe if I could have got them to only quit while ahead or stop loss out for 5 hours and not a whole day it would have been different.
But once the profit is “locked up” it means you can’t get access to it anymore, at least for the day.
What do you think “locked up” means anyway?
okay, to summarize:
you are saying the fact that they used stop losses and that they quit while they were ahead made it impossible for you to win 50% of the tosses which was your true mathematical expectancy
is that correct______________??????
.
Exactly!Quote:
Originally Posted by Half SmokeQuote:
Originally Posted by DGenBenGobbledegook!Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
Even with such strong positive EV, it is simply not enough to overcome the dent people who quit while ahead (for the day)
or people who stop loss out (for the day) will put in the positive EV.
Maybe if I could have got them to only quit while ahead or stop loss out for 5 hours and not a whole day it would have been different.
But once the profit is “locked up” it means you can’t get access to it anymore, at least for the day.
What do you think “locked up” means anyway?
okay, to summarize:
you are saying the fact that they used stop losses and that they quit while they were ahead made it impossible for you to win 50% of the tosses which was your true mathematical expectancy
is that correct______________??????
.
You see, I could never get to the long term because I was still alive when doing these coin flips.
Everyone knows that the long term doesn’t matter until you die.
The optimal strategy on my end should have been to bring cyanide tablets with me and as soon as I had a decent profit, swallow them, because that was the only way to make the long term results match my actual expected value.