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I thought you might just see what you actually did calculate correctly.

change the column heading from "wrong way" to
"expected number of royals" in the data I provided

Bingo!
now the 50%...

I disagree with your values and the method you used.

1000/40000 - .025 is NOT how to calculate the chances of getting at least 1 royal in N hands played.

Sure, you will say it is close, but...

I do think the Wizard of Odds and maybe some one else did the math on this to find the highest Lay and net return.
If I locate it I will post the link
fire-bet-hedge/
I have not tried out the math...

Not a pro gambler only, any gambler, like me.

I have 3 W2Gs in the last 8 months and the one from last year
($4500 slot win thank you) cost me about $300 over that day to get it and included my...

Nice suggestion.
I was thinking of contacting Smart Craps too.

After reading more and using Smart Craps it looks like the info I want is in the program. It calculates it based off the hardway set...

Frank, an update.
I downloaded Smart Craps and the very large user file
I will take some time this week (at night) to look it over and read. I am really interested in how Smart Craps takes your Pro...

He really did not have to do that. The value you wanted was how often or the probability of a shooter to achieve the 5-count.
Since x = the probability of that (I show this x and what Mr. Ethier...

Alan, you only selected 1 of a possible
25,937,424,601 (Billion) 10 roll sequences that could happen. And one of the extreme rare ones BTW.


The SRR is meaningless by itself I do agree here....

The rest of my discussion on this topic here will be added to the thread over at Wizard of Vegas.
Wizard of Vegas - 5 count
Alan had asked the same question there about a year ago and Frank also...

Basically I took an idea you posted about betting on a shooter for just the first 4 rolls.
Place 6 and Place 8 for 4 rolls, replaced if lost.
After 4 rolls the bets are taken down. Start over with...

My math I presented was from Alan's suggestion of betting the first 4 rolls of a shooter then stop. all bets are off until next shooter.
If a bet lost it was replaced during those 1st 4 rolls
and...

OK
The 5 count starts counting (starts to increment) as soon as the shooter rolls a point number.
so if your first rolls are 7,7,11,3,7,7,11,7
your count is still = 0 and you have not been...

They have this too Downtown Vegas at the Plaza and the Vegas Club
pays 7 for 1 for 3 (6 to 1)
and 300 for 1 on the 6
The WoO shows this pay table that looks like what I played on.
We hit many...

Fun!
That bet adds so much excitement to the game as it progresses to becoming a winning bet.
I was at CP last month (my birthday month) and the 3rd shooter after I started playing hit 5 points. He...

Don Catlin also showed this table of probabilities.
Roll Probability of Seven Out
1 0.00000000
2 0.11111111
3 0.22788066
4 0.33264746
5 0.42387109
6 0.50278913
7 0.57095589
8 0.62980865

1) Why not bet the Don't Pass on the random roller if they are that bad compared to a DI?

and really. 2) why wait to bet? Is it really more fun not betting?
and 3) Why the odds?

4) Does...

Yes, A lots of talk about TR these days.
Even at work and at the grocery store.

The $2300 expected loss you mention is an average.

The possible range is determined by standard deviation...

Sounds like a BIG FISH story to me.

I have found that TIME that the shooter holds the dice is very unreliable to how well the shooter's hand went.
It is all about the number of actual dice rolls...

Hi Alan.

The reason why I put that in, every roll in Craps are not equally random, some rolls more than others.

I have seen some barely get the dice to go 3 feet, maybe on purpose, but the roll...

Yes it was a smart play because it was a one time deal.

Your question looks to be not a fair comparison.

If you are going to bet one time to double a bankroll as in the vid clip,
the concept...

Hi Alan!
I agree here.
Highest win prob is to hold the QJ.
using the calculator(hope the link works) 3C,3S,QC,AD,JH
and Excel

win prob ways Held Draws EV Total

0.376441566 6104 _ _ QC _...