The Singer Five

[Rob.Singer]

Here's hoping everyone had as great a Thanksgiving as our family did up on the Lake once again! Even though I sure found it a struggle to hear and read about how one of our members somehow saw an "advantage" in introducing a KFC element into what I consider our most tradition-driven holiday here in the US, I'm sure no one at that home complained.

Cindy, Porsha (our beautiful 3-yr-old Shi Tzu) & I were expecting to be back in our RV nearby Carson City by now, but we instead had to drive our car down here to Phoenix so we could share in the celebration of our having the winning Az. powerball ticket this week! Just kidding--arci's been jealous enough over the years and I wouldn't want to cause any more anxiety than I need to for him, especially at times like these. But seriously, our daughter's family needed us to help secure the new home they're buying, and we'll be on our way back up on Monday.

Anyway back to this thread's title. You may remember last year about this time how I told everyone about a series of identical bets I made at several sportsbooks around the Reno/Tahoe area that somehow just "came to me" during my normal lengthy weekly review of all NFL info as an involved fan. In fact, I identified the parley bet up front and we all watched it unfold together. It was quite a bit of money bet on an all-of-a-sudden revelation and the Mrs. tried to talk me out of it, but just as in how I've always lived my life, I don't ever want to look back and say I wish I had done something that I really wanted to do but got cold feet about. Of course, this wasn't a lot different than when I posted mostly winners on LVA Sports back before Fezzik was a proven fraud. The bet's result is now history and I bought lots and lots of fuel with the money, but now I'm offering another opportunity for everyone to brighten up their days if only just a little. I won't be betting anywhere near the amount I did last year because that was a one time absolute cold stone Singer lock, but nonetheless, if you're so inclined after you see my five picks from this weekend's NFL games, the more bet the merrier!

I'll give everyone a chance to catch their breath and put them up momentarily in a separate post.

[slingshot]

I think winning the powerball would have been a little bit of overkill. lol.

[Rob.Singer]

Indy +5 @ Det

Hou @ Tenn, OVER 47

Phila @ Dal, OVER 43

Chi -4 vs. Sea

NYG @ Wash, UNDER 51

These are the odds I got up in Tahoe and I bet $300 on each game.
Good luck!

[redietz]

I actually like this lineup. Believe me, I'm trying not to, but I think it's a good lineup.

[Rob.Singer]

Thanks for the comments. I think the powerball ticket from Az. was purchased by someone from Maryland--at least that's the current rumor.

I wish arci also chimed in here though. The only people who know more than him are teenagers, and none of them seem interested in gambling.

[regnis]

2 and 2 so far---Arci has the knives out.

[arcimede$]

Anyone believe robki actually made these bets? He lives in a trailer and defaulted on his apartment's rent. He comments under fake ids and has made claims we now know are false. Looks like another failed attempt to create a big gambler image.

[Vegas Vic]

2 and 2 so far---Arci has the knives out.

2 and 2...the cold stone lock skill from last year was more like cold stone luck.

[Alan Mendelson]

I know nothing about sports betting so would someone please explain how Rob did here? My first question is did he make money? Or did he break even? And how do most professional pickers do in their weekly results?

I do know baseball and a batting average of .500 would be one heck of a batting average. We call guys with a .300 average "sluggers."

And just to be fair to the guy, since he has been posting here this was only the second time he publicly picked and publicly announced his sports bets. So what's the overall record? And what's his "win/loss" with the publicly announced bets?

[arcimede$]

Alan, the odds makers set the line so there is basically a 50-50 chance of either side of the bet winning and they win all ties. You could probably do as good as most sports betters by flipping a coin (maybe better as the bias to bet on favorite teams is removed).

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, the odds makers set the line so there is basically a 50-50 chance of either side of the bet winning and they win all ties. You could probably do as good as most sports betters by flipping a coin (maybe better as the bias to bet on favorite teams is removed).

I'm going to look real dumb here... are sports bets paid at even money less a commission, or what?

[redietz]

You know, I worry about you guys.

Rob went 2-2 thus far. You have to win 52.4% against normal "juice" to win overall. Reduced juice can be negotiated for bigger bettors, reducing the win percentage necessary to make money. Three hundred dollars a game is pretty small, actually, and would not even qualify for a conversation regarding reduced juice. At the best comp place in LV, one of those $300 wagers would get you $1 in comps.

Rob did okay -- although I like his Monday night total the least of the five.

Any handicapper would be fine with winning 55% of his wagers in a sports season. Winning more than 60% is unusual and cause for a salute.

I don't think Rob is not trying to appear as a "high roller," as $300 wagers are fairly modest.

[redietz]

Sorry for the mistype editing. I remember Spock saying to a gangster in one Star Trek episode, who had a tommy gun pointed at him, "Sir, you are employing a double negative."

I meant to type, "I don't think Rob is trying to appear as a high roller...."

[Spock]

And just to be fair to the guy, since he has been posting here this was only the second time he publicly picked and publicly announced his sports bets. \

Third if you count both the parlay card last year as well as the picks made in this thread:
http://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/showth...-Heed-The-Word

[regnis]

Alan, the odds makers set the line so there is basically a 50-50 chance of either side of the bet winning and they win all ties. You could probably do as good as most sports betters by flipping a coin (maybe better as the bias to bet on favorite teams is removed).

Not exactly true. They set the lines in such a way as to try to get equal action on both sides so that they win the juice with no exposure. If the betting is too disproportionate, they move the line to try to get action the other way. Also, ties are a push--you don't lose if it hits exactly on the line. However, in many parlay cards, a tie is a loss.

[Vegas Vic]

I'm going to look real dumb here... are sports bets paid at even money less a commission, or what?

All of these are straight bets, and payouts are figured at odds of 10/11. A wager of $11 would win $10 and return $21. Money line betting is different, but it appears he didn't bet on any.

[Rob.Singer]

Anyone believe robki actually made these bets? He lives in a trailer and defaulted on his apartment's rent. He comments under fake ids and has made claims we now know are false. Looks like another failed attempt to create a big gambler image.

This is too funny. Someone who thinks five $300 bets is big-time gaming? And even if he believes his own series of lies about me, I wonder how he feels when he looks at the reality of my wife and I living an active retirement, while he is stuck at home serving instant potatos, pureed vegetables, and pushing a wheelchair around Kinda puts his reason for lying into perspective.

It's all about the bottom line. Theories didn't work at that home.

[regnis]

Not bad Rob--3 wins 2 losses. If you could do that every week.............

[Rob.Singer]

Yes and thanks regnis. We got back to our "trailer in a trailer park " a couple hours ago after a long drive and I'll go up the hill tomorrow, weather permitting, to collect. I'll give it one more go next weekend at a little higher betting level then call it quits for the season, since the two picks I lost had the Bears losing at home to an inferior team that can't win on the road, and a pretend Houston team that only says it knows how to score points like the Patriots do.

[regnis]

I am laughing to myself here because I'm picturing your trailer park like Eddie's in Vegas Vacation based upon Arci's description.