Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[Alan Mendelson]

At what point does it become profitable to "box" the races and hope you are the only winning ticket?

[HKMHORNS]

Awesome hits regnis! Not that it is of great importance but the split is 70/30 to the daily pool/carryover. Do you think on the days with bigger handles like Saturday and Sunday playing a ticket with mostly favorites, especially if they are big favorites, could be positive since so many people are probably taking flyers with tons of long shots that it might be undervaluing the favorites? The hard part is you are only playing for 56% of the actual money bet since they rake 20%.

[Vegas Vic]

That actually depends on the model of the machine. It could have been one of the older models where the replacement cards were drawn in sequence from the "top of the deck."

While I followed correct strategy in this case, had I held A-10 I very well could have hit the royal even with the new continuous shuffle.

So, there is nothing "tongue in cheek" about it. I did not hold the ten and you can only wonder what would have happened if I did?

My point remains: you shouldn't look back and over-analyze your decision with a bunch of "what ifs". Stick to your established method of play and don't do these silly mind games with yourself. They're counter productive and for a lot of players, ensuing bad habits (falling prey to the "what ifs") become their new method of play. The next time that A-10 comes up, try not to let your "what if" weakness take over before you draw. Unfortunately, it looks as if the seed has been planted.

[regnis]

Awesome hits regnis! Not that it is of great importance but the split is 70/30 to the daily pool/carryover. Do you think on the days with bigger handles like Saturday and Sunday playing a ticket with mostly favorites, especially if they are big favorites, could be positive since so many people are probably taking flyers with tons of long shots that it might be undervaluing the favorites? The hard part is you are only playing for 56% of the actual money bet since they rake 20%.

You are correct on the split. Last year it was 60/40 (at least according to the racing form)---don't know why they changed it this year. Saturday was the Florida derby so it was a good day to play it just because of the increased handle. My strategy, however, is always to eliminate the favorites in order to have a chance for a meaningful payoff. I basically write down any horse I believe has even the slightest chance in a race, and see what that will cost. Then as I eliminate to get down to my budget, I look for the weakest favorites and eliminate them.

In answer to Alan's question and continuing this thought---if you get a chalk parade (all favorites), it doesn't pay enough to even play it. For example, on Sunday, it would have cost $118,580 to take every horse in every race, and it paid $10,000. On Saturday, it would have cost $153,331 for all horses, and it paid the $43,000 that I won. That day, not one favorite won in the 6 race sequence. My winners paid 21.60--12.00--25.60--10.40--12.60--8.60.

On Friday, it would have cost only $53,760. But less horses mean more low priced horses and it only paid $1,800. So mathematically, the pool is certainly high enough at 5 million to cover the $150,000 investment, but they don't pay enough to allow for that type of investment. Even on Saturday, with all those good prices, there was only 1 live ticket to take the whole pool and that horse really had no chance.

My cost on Saturday was relatively low as I invested only $218 in the pick 6. My budget is up to $600--but I prefer to try to stay between 250 and 400.

[HKMHORNS]

I like your overall analysis and strategy of the pick 6! I have a feeling you are a far better handicapper than me. I am mostly just an odds and numbers guy. I have one other question if you happen to live in Nevada. Is there a place online where you can bet horses? I would find it much more convenient than going up to the the casino to bet. I have looked around but it seems they all restrict Nevada residents. I understand too if you don't want to say.

[Alan Mendelson]

My point remains: you shouldn't look back and over-analyze your decision with a bunch of "what ifs". Stick to your established method of play and don't do these silly mind games with yourself. They're counter productive and for a lot of players, ensuing bad habits (falling prey to the "what ifs") become their new method of play. The next time that A-10 comes up, try not to let your "what if" weakness take over before you draw. Unfortunately, it looks as if the seed has been planted.

Okay, I agree. But... what if? LOL

[regnis]

I like your overall analysis and strategy of the pick 6! I have a feeling you are a far better handicapper than me. I am mostly just an odds and numbers guy. I have one other question if you happen to live in Nevada. Is there a place online where you can bet horses? I would find it much more convenient than going up to the the casino to bet. I have looked around but it seems they all restrict Nevada residents. I understand too if you don't want to say.

I do not live in Nevada. However, I do know that as recently as a few years ago, Nevada did not allow on-line wagering on horses for residents. There was some talk about allowing on-line wagering thru a Nevada sports book--but I am not sure if that ever got approved. You should check with some of the bigger sports books like Caesars and see if it was ever legalized. I'll try and look into it and let you know if I find anything.

You can always go off shore but they limit the payoffs and you are always at risk of not getting paid, even from the so-called legit ones like Bovada. Or, as some people do, they use a friend's address in a state where it is legal. Of course, Nevada can also prosecute you for illegal wagering. In my state, they will not prosecute a player, but again I don't know if they will in Nevada.

[regnis]

A little research turned up the following:

"You see, online sports wagering is legal in Nevada, but the state gambling laws prohibit people from placing bets online from outside Nevada. In addition, only Nevada residents are allowed to open internet betting accounts with the sportsbooks. Therefore, while Nevada residents can visit some of the Las Vegas sportsbooks and open a personal account, which would let them bet online, residents of other states are not allowed to open said account and wager online. In addition, according to Nevada gambling laws, if the account holder moves out of Nevada - they cannot place bets anymore outside of the state, although they could still use their account when visiting Las Vegas.

Thus as you can see, on one side, yes, you can bet online at the Las Vegas sportsbooks, but only if you are a Nevada resident. If you live anywhere else in the country - Vegas sportsbook betting online is not available to you. There is a reason so many people use the offshore sportsbooks."

It looks like Palace Station has on-line accounts and, again, I would check with caesars or the other big sports books.

Good luck

[HKMHORNS]

Thanks Regnis. I think most of that pertains to sports betting. I think they consider horse betting a little different. I did see an advertisement for a phone account at one of the stations where you could bet horses. I am usually in casinos late at night after the sports books close but I will get in and eventually be able to ask some questions.

[Alan Mendelson]

Hit a royal on Friday, and it was my first royal since the one at the Las Vegas Airport back in February. This one came on my $120 of free play... on the second play.

[Vegas_lover]

Nice win, congrats Alan!

[Rob.Singer]

Looks good to me! So did you leave with at least a $4000 profit since I'm sure you couldn't cash out the remaining $110 of free play, or did you do your little trick where you keep lowering your exit point until you can't stand to see the entire win go south any longer? Of course, the worst thing would be to have won even more.....for your next visit.

[Alan Mendelson]

Actually, Rob, I went on to hit quad aces on Royal Aces Bonus for $4,000. I hit that on an additional $405 of free play that became available later in the day.

I also bought in for $100 at card craps, got as high as $185 and left the table with $168. That covered my gas and a fast food stop.

I haven't had a losing trip to Rincon in my last six visits. Though I must admit my smallest "win" was about $400 which came from free play. I personally haven't used any of my own money there in the last six visits.

[redietz]

Excellent, Alan. Good job abusing Rincon.

[Rob.Singer]

Actually, Rob, I went on to hit quad aces on Royal Aces Bonus for $4,000. I hit that on an additional $405 of free play that became available later in the day.

I also bought in for $100 at card craps, got as high as $185 and left the table with $168. That covered my gas and a fast food stop.

I haven't had a losing trip to Rincon in my last six visits. Though I must admit my smallest "win" was about $400 which came from free play. I personally haven't used any of my own money there in the last six visits.

So with $120 in free play you mugged them for over $4000 in net profit, and with $405 in free play you robbed them of another $4000+ in net profit? That's an even better hit ratio than I've had in my luckiest times! See--it happens. But good thing your last name isn't Custer.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'd be lying if I said I left with the full $8k. I did put $2500 back in. But I also hit enough points for another $500 gift card plus $120 cashback plus I am sure it helped my free play offers for August.

[Rob.Singer]

I know that seems "exciting" in some way Alan, but you haven't learned how that's your downfall yet? Please explain why you just couldn't stop play after the first $120 except for the second load of $405. Then, assuming you hit those Aces within the $405 free play, why did you continue to play? If you say you just couldn't bear to see the action stop, that would be honest and I'd understand. But please don't say how you were gunning for more comps, because you can see how much those "freebies" cost....most of the time.

Also, you explained the two free play loads as if it were based on the time of day or something. How did that work?

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob... I hit big on the casino's free play. Any time I win $8k on free play I will gladly risk $2500 of it trying to win more.

The first free play load of $120 was already available. The second became available after 8am. I arrived at 7:30am.

[Rob.Singer]

The problem with that type of approach is you lose track of what you successfully just did (which was to hit the two best hands possible--what the Heck more were you expecting?) all for the sake of greed. And where does greed usually get us??

[Alan Mendelson]

The problem with that type of approach is you lose track of what you successfully just did (which was to hit the two best hands possible--what the Heck more were you expecting?) all for the sake of greed. And where does greed usually get us??

So what are you suggesting, Rob? That after hitting those two big winners I never play video poker again?
Does it make a difference if I continue to play that day after hitting those winners... or if I took all of the money home that day but returned to play the next day?

Frankly, Rob, no matter what I say you will find fault with it. Why is that? Because only you decide what is right.

You see Rob, you can have ten sessions played in one day, can't you? Each session with a win goal and a loss limit, right? So what's the difference if you have one session with a win goal and a loss limit that lasts all day, or if you have the "Rob Singer method" of having ten sessions in one day each with a win goal and a loss limit?

Rob... I'm really tired of your nonsense. So instead of debating let me sum it up this way:

I'll play video poker with my money my way. And you manage your fixed income retirement and how you play video poker your way.