Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[regnis]

Arci-believe it or not, I like your blackjack analogy. But let's get back to VP--and even your positive expectation game (most of us don't have a positive game to play). At some point, if you are significantly ahead, you know, positive EV or not, that the game is going to cool down. You are going to ride that bell curve down some. So if you had rising win goals and stop losses, it would still be beneficial. And no you can't guess when the cold streak is going to occur, and yes I recognize it's a positive game, but there still are streaks and if you have been riding a hot streak, you know the reality is it will cool off. This is reality not theory. So I still believe it can help in your style of play and your game.

[arcimede$]

Arci-believe it or not, I like your blackjack analogy. But let's get back to VP--and even your positive expectation game (most of us don't have a positive game to play). At some point, if you are significantly ahead, you know, positive EV or not, that the game is going to cool down. You are going to ride that bell curve down some. So if you had rising win goals and stop losses, it would still be beneficial. And no you can't guess when the cold streak is going to occur, and yes I recognize it's a positive game, but there still are streaks and if you have been riding a hot streak, you know the reality is it will cool off. This is reality not theory. So I still believe it can help in your style of play and your game.

Nope, I realize it sounds good but it simply isn't true. The future expectation is always exactly the same before every hand. You have no idea what will happen over the next X number of hands. There is no difference between quitting now and starting later vs. continuing to play a random game. That's just the way it is. Look at Alan's hot streak recently ... if he would have stopped playing because he had been doing well he would have lost out on many big hits. And, if he started sometime in the future he has just as much chance to go right into a cold streak.

This is just more of the Singer nonsense that losing on a computer will improve your chances in a casino (or vice versa). It's all based on applying the concept called regression to the mean erroneously. It simply does not apply to VP play. Sorry.

Instead of listening to the silly nonsense Singer spews, why don't you make an effort to understand randomness? This is not that tough. His claims that APers putting in long hours will lose is nothing but lies. Repeating his lies makes a person look bad. Think for yourself.

[Alan Mendelson]

I like what regnis wrote here and I was going to write something like it.

let's get back to VP--and even your positive expectation game (most of us don't have a positive game to play). At some point, if you are significantly ahead, you know, positive EV or not, that the game is going to cool down. You are going to ride that bell curve down some. So if you had rising win goals and stop losses, it would still be beneficial. And no you can't guess when the cold streak is going to occur, and yes I recognize it's a positive game, but there still are streaks and if you have been riding a hot streak, you know the reality is it will cool off. This is reality not theory. So I still believe it can help in your style of play and your game.

If the games are truly random, when you hit a cold streak you might never recover. In a random game cold streaks can continue forever. Arc likes to point out to my recent winning streak where I had an inordinate numbers of royals in a short period of time. But what about my "cold streak" when I went 180,000+ hands without a royal? During that cold streak I kept saying to myself "I'm due, I'm due." I kept telling myself I was due after 40,000 hands, and after 80,000 and after 120,000 and after 160,000 hands....

If the "math guys" think the math is going to bail them out then they believe in voodoo because they are violating the basic rule of play which is the machine is random. The bell curve that Arc so much likes to discuss applies to all games and all players in all casinos and where you fall on that random bell curve is nothing but random. Except I do concede that playing the appropriate strategy will help your results. But for Arc to say or believe that the math will bail him out is absolute nonsense. The math does not apply to any single, individual player on any machine at any time. It's random for heaven's sake.