Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[coach belly]

Those number of hands questions are best answered via textbooks or someone teaching probability.

You wrote about your confidence, that's what I was asking about.

How many hands does it take before you become confident that losing is certain?

[RS__]

Coach belly & Alan, read and re-read the following, particularly the bolded:

Reality is probabilistic. Practically, you can say that a person won't win the Mega-Millions. You can't say with absolute certainty he won't. Practically, I can bet that the sun will come up tomorrow. Can I say that with "absolute certainty?" No -- because we may get bonked by a meteor that will blot out the sun for hundreds of years. Or maybe one big enough to whack the earth in half.

It depends what you consider "certainty," and how you value "certainty." We could get struck by lightning as we step outside tomorrow, but almost all of us are going to step outside, anyway. If we decide to not do so out of probabilistic fear, most of our kind would consider that behavior unnecessarily risk averse and debilitating.

Technically, I wouldn't "assert with absolute certainty" that a player playing millions of hands of 95% video poker WILL lose. But I'll assert (state fact or belief forcefully and confidently) it and take my chances.

[Alan Mendelson]

RS__ these key phrases "you're gonna lose" and "guaranteed to lose" mean the same thing. If you tell me I am going to lose, you are also saying that I am guaranteed to lose.

You cannot say you are going to lose unless it comes with a guaranteed result.

If you said "you might lose" then you have eliminated the guarantee that I am going to lose.

"You're gonna lose" leaves no possibility for not losing. Therefore "you're gonna lose" comes with a guarantee.

[mickeycrimm]

Whatever the context, your statement was that a player is not guaranteed to lose, even if playing an -EV game. Do you want to retract that and assert that a player is guaranteed to lose? You have not, and apparently can not, define terms such as "short period", "few sessions", "very little" and "end up" with any precision, you toss these vague terms around like they mean something just to cover your poindexter ass. This was evident when you stumbled and fumbled by defining a "session" as an undefined period of time. So go ahead and explain what "end up" means...when does play end such that you can determine whether you have won or lost overall? Ultimately, only a few sessions played can be every session you ever play...isn't that correct? Likelihood is not a guarantee that the player will lose...you have already confirmed that.

Coach, you ask clear and concise questions. Very refreshing and you deserve an astute answer....

The probablity of video poker, as such, requires, nothwithstanding, the solution of the event, but under the assumption, and this is critically acclaimed, that the outcome, henceforth, has precise requirements, according to the evolution, , which goes unsaid, and furthermore, without due respect, of the said winning, remains steadfast in probability mechanics.

Coach, if you have any more questions regarding this very important topic please feel free to ask.

[RS__]

RS__ these key phrases "you're gonna lose" and "guaranteed to lose" mean the same thing. If you tell me I am going to lose, you are also saying that I am guaranteed to lose.

You cannot say you are going to lose unless it comes with a guaranteed result.

If you said "you might lose" then you have eliminated the guarantee that I am going to lose.

"You're gonna lose" leaves no possibility for not losing. Therefore "you're gonna lose" comes with a guarantee.

When did you & company start taking everything so literally? If I say "The Falcons are going to win the super bowl" do you really believe I'm saying they are 100% guaranteed to win?

[coach belly]

Coach, if you have any more questions regarding this very important topic please feel free to ask.

Probability mechanics...yes. Thanks for clearing that up.

I do have more questions.

What is the certainty that Alan will end up losing for his next session of 8/5 Bonus Poker?

Was the certainty the same before he played his last session?

[mickeycrimm]

RS__ these key phrases "you're gonna lose" and "guaranteed to lose" mean the same thing. If you tell me I am going to lose, you are also saying that I am guaranteed to lose. You cannot say you are going to lose unless it comes with a guaranteed result. If you said "you might lose" then you have eliminated the guarantee that I am going to lose. "You're gonna lose" leaves no possibility for not losing. Therefore "you're gonna lose" comes with a guarantee.

[mickeycrimm]

Probability mechanics...yes. Thanks for clearing that up. I do have more questions.
What is the certainty that Alan will end up losing for his next session of 8/5 Bonus Poker? Was the certainty the same before he played his last session?

It can definitely be measured probability wise by a good enough mathematician. But the first question this math guy will ask is "How many hands will he play?"

[coach belly]

When did you & company start taking everything so literally? If I say "The Falcons are going to win the super bowl" do you really believe I'm saying they are 100% guaranteed to win?

I think we may have a breakthrough.

When you say that the Falcons will win, you mean that you think they will win...not that you know they will win.

When you say a player will lose playing -EV games, you mean that you think he will lose...not that you know he will lose.

Is that correct?

[coach belly]

It can definitely be measured probability wise by a good enough mathematician. But the first question this math guy will ask is "How many hands will he play?"

Let's assume that he will play the same number of hands as he did in his last session.

Was the certainty of losing before his last session the same as it is before his next session?

[mickeycrimm]

Let's assume that he will play the same number of hands as he did in his last session. Was the certainty of losing before his last session the same as it is before his next session?

If the same number of hands are played each session then the probability of having a losing session will be the same in all those sessions.

Probability is not a measure of certainty. Its a measure of uncertainty.

[coach belly]

If the same number of hands are played each session then the probability of having a losing session will be the same in all those sessions.

And since Alan won in his last session, then would it have been incorrect to say (before that session) that he will lose for the session?

[coach belly]

Probability is not a measure of certainty. Its a measure of uncertainty.

That's a distinction without a difference.

Uncertainty is a measure of certainty...it's a lack of certainty.

[mickeycrimm]

And since Alan won in his last session, then would it have been incorrect to say (before that session) that he will lose for the session?

You are assigning a certainty to an uncertainty.

[RS__]

I think we may have a breakthrough.

When you say that the Falcons will win, you mean that you think they will win...not that you know they will win.

When you say a player will lose playing -EV games, you mean that you think he will lose...not that you know he will lose.

Is that correct?

Now you're starting to use your nogin!

As far as the Falcons winning, I have no idea, that was just an example, BTW.

But with -EV games, it's not particularly difficult to figure out the probability of winning or losing a session, assuming you know the game and probabilities for it as well as number of rounds played for the session.

[coach belly]

Now you're starting to use your nogin!

Great...so the statement below is false?...jbjb is incorrect?

Your playing a -EV game and you are going to lose!!

[coach belly]

You are assigning a certainty to an uncertainty.

Since we know the results, had it been said that he will lose, has that statement been proven to be incorrect?

Before any session of 8/5 BP begins, would it be correct to say that the player will lose?

[mickeycrimm]

Since we know the results, had it been said that he will lose, has that statement been proven to be incorrect?

Before any session of 8/5 BP begins, would it be correct to say that the player will lose?

No. But the probability is that he will lose.

[RS__]

Great...so the statement below is false?...jbjb is incorrect?

The more you play a -EV game, the more likely you are to lose. I think that's what jbjb was referring to.

[Rob.Singer]

Silly mickey. The probability for any VP game in any given session, regardless of pay table, is that the player will lose if they play at a single denomination with no strategy other than optimal play.