Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[mickeycrimm]

Imagine having to live your life based on the likelihoods, and probabilities this group of AP’s put forward in this thread and others for everyone’s reading pleasure. How did this site end up with this little group of self-proclaimed AP’s who should start the dumb and dumber AP non-profit club? It just keeps getting dumber and dumber. I have to say the stupidity keeps me coming back for more and more entertainment, never being disappointed.

BH, your opinion here is based in your hubris. Your ego tells you that since you can't figure out how it's done then it's imposssible to do. Consequently, you believe that anyone who says they consistently make money gambling is lying.

[mickeycrimm]

Actual AP requires both self-control and strategic decisions in a casino environment, neither of which is humanly possible, therefore anyone claiming success as an AP is lying.

Not humanly possible, eh? Bocce, I would rather stand in a corner with my finger in my ass than make a negative expectation bet. How's that for self control?

[bocce ball]

Bocce, I would rather stand in a corner with my finger in my ass than make a negative expectation bet.

I would stand in a corner with my finger in my ass if the casino awarded me slot club points for doing so. But only on a multiplier day.

[Alan Mendelson]

you believe that anyone who says they consistently make money gambling is lying.

I also believe that anyone who says they "consistently make money gambling" is lying. I think if someone said that they "win more than they lose" and had "losing sessions" or losing days, weeks or months, it would be very believable. But to say they "consistently" make money? Nope. Don't believe it.

[bocce ball]

I also believe that anyone who says they "consistently make money gambling" is lying.

I'm not smart enough to consistently make money gambling, but I'm smart enough to understand that others may be smart enough to consistently make money gambling.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm not smart enough to consistently make money gambling, but I'm smart enough to understand that others may be smart enough to consistently make money gambling.

Not even casinos consistently make money.

[Alan Mendelson]

Some of the APs here claim to do what the entire casino industry can't do:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/busines...-year-net-loss

[bocce ball]

Some of the APs here claim to do what the entire casino industry can't do:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/busines...-year-net-loss

OK, but aggregate results don't tell you a whole lot about individual operators.

Not even casinos consistently make money.

I presume this has been beaten to death previously, but AP opportunities vary in their degrees of volatility. Mickey is an obvious example of someone who wins consistently, or nearly so. Online poker during the glory days was a consistent winner for many players with lucrative rakeback and bonuses. Sports-betting arbitrage plays are essentially risk-free by design.

Are you familiar with Virtu Financial? The high-frequency trading company made headlines for profiting on 1277 of 1278 days. Financial trading is a form of gambling.

Casino table players can achieve very high advantages with sophisticated techniques I've never heard of.

As for the casino operators themselves, I think it would depend on the setup. We know casinos offering high-limit table games are vulnerable to swings, but a slots-only casino could potentially enjoy steady profits, assuming the high-jackpot machines are not directly owned. Casinos that primarily rake the action, such as California card rooms, could be consistent winners.

[jbjb]

Some of the APs here claim to do what the entire casino industry can't do:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/busines...-year-net-loss

"Gaming revenue statewide was almost $10.395 billion"

All this article shows is that the casinos have more expenses than revenue. They did NOT lose on the gambling portion.

[jbjb]

I also believe that anyone who says they "consistently make money gambling" is lying. I think if someone said that they "win more than they lose" and had "losing sessions" or losing days, weeks or months, it would be very believable. But to say they "consistently" make money? Nope. Don't believe it.

This is mostly correct. There are very very few games where you won't have losing weeks or longer.

[Alan Mendelson]

This is mostly correct. There are very very few games where you won't have losing weeks or longer.

Thank you.

[jbjb]

"Gaming revenue statewide was almost $10.395 billion"

All this article shows is that the casinos have more expenses than revenue. They did NOT lose on the gambling portion.

One more thing about the article. Reading it, you all should now understand why casinos are cutting back on many of the perks of players club status. It's one of the first places where they can save money.

[redietz]

One more thing about the article. Reading it, you all should now understand why casinos are cutting back on many of the perks of players club status. It's one of the first places where they can save money.

As the gaming demography "matures" (industry term), which means has spent more hours-on-device, the corporations can rely on the addictive quality of the machines themselves and their "losing while winning" conditioning (penny slots and multi-line vp) to generate repeat business. The stronger the conditioning in that regard, the more they can downgrade the perks and bonus programs, which in essence provide a "losing while winning" experience outside of the actual machines.

[bocce ball]

Thank you.

I think there's some confusion regarding the definition of "consistent" -- and it's my fault for not reading your post more carefully.

You seem to be defining it as winning every session, and nearly all my cited examples would fail on that basis. Certainly Mickey has never claimed to win every session.

May I ask who on the forums has claimed to win every session?

[Alan Mendelson]

May I ask who on the forums has claimed to win every session?

I am sure NO ONE has. Even the "big authors" including Dancer, Scoblete and EVERYONE ELSE has talked about losing trips.

[Alan Mendelson]

As the gaming demography "matures" (industry term), which means has spent more hours-on-device, the corporations can rely on the addictive quality of the machines themselves and their "losing while winning" conditioning (penny slots and multi-line vp) to generate repeat business. The stronger the conditioning in that regard, the more they can downgrade the perks and bonus programs, which in essence provide a "losing while winning" experience outside of the actual machines.

I don't think ANY CASINO has ever given away in comps more than the expected edge it has on any game. If a casino knows you play a game with a 99% return, the value of your comps will be less than 1%. I think when a casino cuts comps it is done to increase its profit margins -- it's never to turn gaming from a negative to a positive for the casinos.

[bocce ball]

Even the "big authors" including Dancer, Scoblete and EVERYONE ELSE has talked about losing trips.

Now I'm confused.

I'm not sure where we disagree, but I find Dancer generally believable when describing his results. He doesn't make outrageous claims, and he backs up his assertions with verifiable facts. I don't know much about Scoblete. I think he's been involved with dice control, which is difficult to assess.

Crimm is very believable, and has provided copious supporting details.

The people I find unbelievable are the ones who claim to win with mathematically inert or counterproductive strategies.

[Alan Mendelson]

Dancer has talked about his losses. He shrouds his losses in discussions about what a wonderful play he was making but he admits to losses. For example -- when he runs XXX amount of money to win a car... but doesn't win the car. He doesn't report that he won playing so you know he lost the promotional play and the video poker play that time. Fair enough.

Scoblete preaches a conservative approach to playing craps knowing full well it is a negative game.

[Rob.Singer]

People can believe whatever they want about whomever they choose. But I find it totally disingenuous to claim that Dancer has ever backed up any claim of winning with any sort of "facts". Further, you actually BELIEVE all the hokey stories of winning at Montana vp & keno that mickey spins? Explain exactly where he backs any of it up. Then prove you're not mickey, whom you seem to have come on to idolize at a time when he was taken out to the woodshed one too many times.

Alan, your depiction of how Dancer shrouds his losses was good. Taking common sense a step further however is what makes his fans nervous. He continually blabs about winning at SP, Gold Coast, Palms, Stations, M, and a few other local casinos, and he's done this for many years. Yet there are countless "AP's" who non-stop complain about getting stopped, barred, banned, or restricted from playing at these places because of the way they play. Whether that's believable is questionable since NONE of them have ever provided or published written proof of being 86'ed as I have.

However, the fact remains, NO ONE who consistently wins at these casinos AND WHO OPENLY WRITES ABOUT IT AS WELL AS HOW HE RAPES THEIR SLOT CLUBS OVER & OVER AGAIN, can possibly be doing anything but losing lots of cash everywhere. It only makes sense. Imagine Sam's Town saying "We know Bill beat the hell out of us for the tenth straight year and he got thousands in slot club benefits to boot....so let's let him do it again!"

Mickey, OTOH, is a harmless storey teller that should be taken with a grain of salt. He has virtually no life past, present, or future, and if Bernie Sanders ever bumped into him in Montana then his plan to help the poor would multiply ten-fold.

People need to wise up as to what's really going on.

[bocce ball]

But I find it totally disingenuous to claim that Dancer has ever backed up any claim of winning with any sort of "facts".

I'm satisfied with the phrasing of my comments. I think you and I have different standards of evidence required.

Further, you actually BELIEVE all the hokey stories of winning at Montana vp & keno that mickey spins? Explain exactly where he backs any of it up.

He has provided specific details of the game mechanics, including screen shots. I don't know for sure that he actually plays the games, but it's entirely logical to accept that he does. Alan seems bothered by the rarity of losing sessions, but that's the nature of those particular games. They can be highly advantageous, but only for small to moderate stakes. According to American Casino Guide, Montana's max bet is $2, and max payout is $800.

Similar opportunities exist in other places such as Las Vegas, but usually the competition is intense. Mickey's competition is limited due to geography and logistics, and he's highly skilled at detecting advantage possibilities that others would overlook.

Then prove you're not mickey, whom you seem to have come on to idolize at a time when he was taken out to the woodshed one too many times.

LOL. I take note of his postings because he's educational and entertaining. Advantage players are often very tight-lipped about their plays.