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Thread: Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

  1. #21
    The best part of that ramble & scramble is how you actually believe no one saw you write "$700" just because you got caught coming up short again and needed to re-arrange the story. So silly

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Sorry robki, it doesn't matter what the win goal was to prove my point. He got ahead by some amount and ended up even further ahead. That has been my point all along. What if his win goal was $600? He would never had stayed around to hit the royal. That is what I've been saying for months.
    I think I should repeat how I adapted the idea of a win goal for my purposes. First, I need to have a minimum win to make the trip worthwhile, and the minimum win will depend on my "entertainment budget." Since Ive been doing well at live poker, my budget could afford a loss of $1,000. My main goal last night was really to play the free play, and pick up the $200 of Macy's gift cards which are now in my wife's wallet.

    But when I put that $1,000 into the $5 Aces and Faces machine I started to hit quads almost immediately. In fact, I think I got quad 7s for $625 on the fifth or sixth hand I played... then quad 10s... the quad deuces... and then when I hit quad Ks for $1,000 the first ticket spit out... then quad Js for another $1,000 ticket, and then quad Js again for another thousand dollar ticket. I think I had a bit more than $1,000 on the credit meter when I hit the royal.

    All along, with the machine spitting out $1,000 tickets, I was raising my "stop loss." I was even prepared to put a $1,000 back into the machine because I had two that I could have cashed out which was double my initial play amount.

    When I hit the royal, I took the whole thing in a check, and I decided to come home with $4500 in cash, which is what I did. After I hit the royal, I did play some more getting two $5 straight flushes for $1250 each and one SF on $2 Royal Aces Bonus.

    So win goals are flexible, and using a rising stop loss you can keep playing while promising yourself not to touch the rising profit. It's a system stock market investors use and it works very well in gambling, too.

    In fact the other night at The Bicycle Casino I was sitting next to a player who described his win goal method. He makes sure that he keeps his cash game gambling bankroll intact and then 10% of cash game wins go into a special fund just for playing tournaments. He acknowledges that tournaments are much more risky than cash games and he doesn't want to use his core bankroll on tournaments.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  3. #23
    "Flexible win goals"....if I didn't employ the concept a few days ago, where would all that cash be today? But while I NEVER did that as a professional player and never would, I can see that it just might add to the EV of the session--as in Entertainment Value. I just hope this, or my aging, doesn't cloud my good judgement too much as I play maybe weekly in my retirement years.

  4. #24
    Alan, it makes no difference how you adapted win goals. They do not change the odds in any way. No matter how you set a goal the return of the game is no different at that point then at any other point. You are just as likely to win after reaching a goal as when you return and just as likely to lose as well.

    Why do people waste their time chasing unicorns?

  5. #25
    Again Arc, it has nothing to do with the odds of the game. As we both know, the casino edge on 8/5 Aces and Faces is determined solely by the pay table. The only thing win goals do for you is help you budget your money and provides a method for you to decide how much you will risk. There is no unicorn unless you think money management is some fairy tale.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Again Arc, it has nothing to do with the odds of the game. As we both know, the casino edge on 8/5 Aces and Faces is determined solely by the pay table. The only thing win goals do for you is help you budget your money and provides a method for you to decide how much you will risk. There is no unicorn unless you think money management is some fairy tale.
    Having a loss limit is a reasonable approach to money management. Win goals/limits don't help you "budget your money" over any other method of limiting your play.

  7. #27
    And according to that nonsense, the $12k and $20k I won over the last two weeks HAS to be given back along with another 1% or so because that's the casino's edge, and the math says it is so. In other words, just because I wasn't stupid enough to give it back on each visit by continuing to play, the future of my profits are doomed.

    Bring out another unicorn!

  8. #28
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Having a loss limit is a reasonable approach to money management. Win goals/limits don't help you "budget your money" over any other method of limiting your play.
    Arc, both loss limits and win goals tell you when to stop. With a loss limit the point is clear -- you've exhausted your budget. With a win goal the point is you have reached a point where experience warns you that the favorable trend may not last and it may be wise to be happy with what you've got.

    As I've written before... there were times when I had ten thousand or more in my pocket from wins -- but kept playing trying to win more and ended up giving it all back. Had I kept to a win goal, and even if I had a win goal with a rising stop loss, I would have preserved at least some of that win.

    I'm going to say this again: why are so called "advantage video poker players" the only people I know of who reject the idea of having a win goal?
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    And according to that nonsense, the $12k and $20k I won over the last two weeks HAS to be given back along with another 1% or so because that's the casino's edge, and the math says it is so. In other words, just because I wasn't stupid enough to give it back on each visit by continuing to play, the future of my profits are doomed.

    Bring out another unicorn!
    Silly strawman. Let me know when you have the ability to understand simple concepts like odds. I know it's tough given your years of unemployment but put down and bottle and give it a try.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Silly strawman. Let me know when you have the ability to understand simple concepts like odds. I know it's tough given your years of unemployment but put down and bottle and give it a try.
    You forgot about the drugs, being on parole, and kicking my dog around ((Comment deleted by moderator. Personal and has nothing to do with the discussion.))
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 12-22-2012 at 06:33 PM.

  11. #31
    Okay, so this wasn't a jackpot and it wasn't a lot of money, but I just won the cafrino.com Christmas $50 freeroll tournament. My first place prize was $11.50 -- that's eleven dollars and fifty-cents. But it was an accomplishment even if the payoff wasn't much.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  12. #32
    I'm going to say this again: why are so called "advantage video poker players" the only people I know of who reject the idea of having a win goal?[/QUOTE]

    That is a great question Alan. They can't seem to believe that anything other than beating their brains out all day can work. In any form of gambling, including the stock market, loss limits and flexible win goals are an effective form of money management. I don't understand why a so-called advantage player can't use or recognize the value of proven principles of money management (or maybe it's just Arci).

    One other good form of money management for married men is, of course, to hide the big wad of 100's from the wife.

  13. #33
    The best advice of money management for men ever given: don't get divorced, because when you do you stand to lose half or even more.

    Arc, by the way, is not alone. All advantage video poker players believe that when they have the advantage there is no reason to stop playing ever except for the need to sleep, go to the restroom, eat and maybe have sex. I say "maybe have sex" because I think they put video poker advantage play ahead of sex.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    That is a great question Alan. They can't seem to believe that anything other than beating their brains out all day can work. In any form of gambling, including the stock market, loss limits and flexible win goals are an effective form of money management. I don't understand why a so-called advantage player can't use or recognize the value of proven principles of money management (or maybe it's just Arci).
    What can I say. Why would you would confuse stock investments with VP? You buy a stock when you think it will increase in value. That is, it is a positive return. As the stock increases the opportunity for it to continue to increase usually goes down. Eventually the stock represents a negative investment at its current value. That is what a person would set as a goal.

    The difference in VP is the APer always has an advantage. It does not change. There is no point where the opportunity changes. Would you sell a stock that you knew was going to continue to increase in value? Your attempt at an analogy only demonstrates a need to educate yourself.

  15. #35
    Arc, why shouldn't the same investment principles that apply to stocks not also apply to playing video poker or any other form of gambling or speculation? Let's look at what you wrote:

    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    You buy a stock when you think it will increase in value. That is, it is a positive return.
    Yes, I will agree with that.

    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    As the stock increases the opportunity for it to continue to increase usually goes down. Eventually the stock represents a negative investment at its current value.
    I don't understand where you got that from? You'll have to explain that -- because it's something I never heard before.

    But what you miss is that in the stock market investors raise their stop loss so that they can let their winners run. At the same time they have a stop loss to keep from losing too much.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  16. #36
    Alan, your stop loss is essentially a win goal. Think about it. Since the real edge on any stock (the amount it eventually increases) is unknown one uses this technique to allow for greater earnings. However, no one really believes a stock will continue to increase forever. That is, eventually the edge goes to zero (or becomes negative).

    Now, consider a positive EV VP game. When does the edge become negative? Never. Why would you waste your time with a stop-loss when you know as a fact that the investment will continue to grow forever?

    Admittedly, there will be times when the value goes down due to variance. However, since VP is random there is no way to know when that will happen or avoid it. No "technique" can help (proven mathematically). The key is to have a sufficient bankroll to handle the swings and then just go with the flow.

    EDIT: Maybe this will help. Investing is more like playing blackjack where the edge changes over time. When a deck becomes positive you want to invest heavily. When it becomes negative you do the equivalent of a stop-loss by betting the minimum (or leaving).
    Last edited by arcimede$; 12-28-2012 at 05:57 AM.

  17. #37
    Arci-believe it or not, I like your blackjack analogy. But let's get back to VP--and even your positive expectation game (most of us don't have a positive game to play). At some point, if you are significantly ahead, you know, positive EV or not, that the game is going to cool down. You are going to ride that bell curve down some. So if you had rising win goals and stop losses, it would still be beneficial. And no you can't guess when the cold streak is going to occur, and yes I recognize it's a positive game, but there still are streaks and if you have been riding a hot streak, you know the reality is it will cool off. This is reality not theory. So I still believe it can help in your style of play and your game.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Arci-believe it or not, I like your blackjack analogy. But let's get back to VP--and even your positive expectation game (most of us don't have a positive game to play). At some point, if you are significantly ahead, you know, positive EV or not, that the game is going to cool down. You are going to ride that bell curve down some. So if you had rising win goals and stop losses, it would still be beneficial. And no you can't guess when the cold streak is going to occur, and yes I recognize it's a positive game, but there still are streaks and if you have been riding a hot streak, you know the reality is it will cool off. This is reality not theory. So I still believe it can help in your style of play and your game.
    Nope, I realize it sounds good but it simply isn't true. The future expectation is always exactly the same before every hand. You have no idea what will happen over the next X number of hands. There is no difference between quitting now and starting later vs. continuing to play a random game. That's just the way it is. Look at Alan's hot streak recently ... if he would have stopped playing because he had been doing well he would have lost out on many big hits. And, if he started sometime in the future he has just as much chance to go right into a cold streak.

    This is just more of the Singer nonsense that losing on a computer will improve your chances in a casino (or vice versa). It's all based on applying the concept called regression to the mean erroneously. It simply does not apply to VP play. Sorry.

    Instead of listening to the silly nonsense Singer spews, why don't you make an effort to understand randomness? This is not that tough. His claims that APers putting in long hours will lose is nothing but lies. Repeating his lies makes a person look bad. Think for yourself.

  19. #39
    You guys are arguing common sense with someone who purposely spouts unreasonable and false/misleading BS that obviously he's never been able to support or justify, because all he requires is to keep discussions going on & on just so he doesn't go crazy staring at four walls. How funny was it seeing him desperately try to start things up on CHRISTMAS EVE of all times! I guess he went out to KFC early to get his Christmas Feast . Counting flowers on the wall....

    BTW I played a little vp for a half hour at the Peppermill yesterday on quarters and lost $90. Gee I guess I cheated the math again--you know, the math that claims it's gonna reach right out and snatch up that $32k worth of winnings I recently had, and a bit more of course because I only play "negative games ", so that I don't continue to upset the AP universe of "this is the way it is, and this is the way it HAS GOT to be".

  20. #40
    Arci--I don't want to discuss a positive game, since I don't have the option to play one. So let's say I have a 98% game. Now what about the win goals and stop losses?

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