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Thread: Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

  1. #41
    I can't be comfortable sitting there for more than 30 minutes. So I'd rather grab $5 here, $20 there, etc. than to do like I did some time ago and ran $100 playing nickel vp and NEVER hit a quad for 2 hours! That's totally ridiculous bull and I'm not gonna sit there and wait for "randomness" to take over. It was totally exasperating-AND- the machine got WORSE the closer I got to the end of the $100. NEVER AGAIN. As I look back at that day, there were many times, right from the gitgo, that I was up 20 credits and coulda left-maybe only $50 for the day-but certainly better that losing. I have no qualms with anyone who plays that way, but it is a WASTE OF LIFE!

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Arci--I don't want to discuss a positive game, since I don't have the option to play one. So let's say I have a 98% game. Now what about the win goals and stop losses?
    I covered this with Alan previously. First of all your investment analogy goes away as you would never invest in a stock you thought was going to lose money. So, the play is clearly for entertainment.

    The idea of win goals and loss limits do not provide any advantage in this case either. It all gets down to the amount of money you are willing to lose. The more you play the more you lose over time. Sure, you might be one of the lucky ones but a person should never count on luck when it comes to money. The win/loss goals do provide a mechanism for managing that loss. However, it is not the only one. The important thing is to understand that over time the math has its way. So, don't fool yourself that you can overcome the math through money management. You can't. You can only manage the amount you are willing to lose.

    For an average player I do believe a loss limit is a good idea. It's just too easy to lose more money on negative machines with little chance of ever getting any back. However, all this is doing is reducing play. The loss limit itself is just a method and in and of itself is not doing anything to the return of the game.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    I can't be comfortable sitting there for more than 30 minutes. So I'd rather grab $5 here, $20 there, etc. than to do like I did some time ago and ran $100 playing nickel vp and NEVER hit a quad for 2 hours! That's totally ridiculous bull and I'm not gonna sit there and wait for "randomness" to take over. It was totally exasperating-AND- the machine got WORSE the closer I got to the end of the $100. NEVER AGAIN. As I look back at that day, there were many times, right from the gitgo, that I was up 20 credits and coulda left-maybe only $50 for the day-but certainly better that losing. I have no qualms with anyone who plays that way, but it is a WASTE OF LIFE!
    Were you playing a positive return game? Were you playing optimal strategy? If not, why are you blaming randomness for your losses?

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    You guys are arguing common sense with someone who purposely spouts unreasonable and false/misleading BS that obviously he's never been able to support or justify, because all he requires is to keep discussions going on & on just so he doesn't go crazy staring at four walls.
    Once again robki provides nothing but silly nonsense. I guess he doesn't like it when facts are provided. Kind of puts his claims into perspective.


    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    BTW I played a little vp for a half hour at the Peppermill yesterday on quarters and lost $90. Gee I guess I cheated the math again--you know, the math that claims it's gonna reach right out and snatch up that $32k worth of winnings I recently had, and a bit more of course because I only play "negative games ", so that I don't continue to upset the AP universe of "this is the way it is, and this is the way it HAS GOT to be".
    This is more of the silly nonsense I've mentioned before. Robki is still claiming random games will somehow remember past events. There is no mystical force in the universe that forces a regression to the mean. Take your voodoo thoughts elsewhere and let the grown-ups discuss the facts.

  5. #45
    I like what regnis wrote here and I was going to write something like it.

    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    let's get back to VP--and even your positive expectation game (most of us don't have a positive game to play). At some point, if you are significantly ahead, you know, positive EV or not, that the game is going to cool down. You are going to ride that bell curve down some. So if you had rising win goals and stop losses, it would still be beneficial. And no you can't guess when the cold streak is going to occur, and yes I recognize it's a positive game, but there still are streaks and if you have been riding a hot streak, you know the reality is it will cool off. This is reality not theory. So I still believe it can help in your style of play and your game.
    If the games are truly random, when you hit a cold streak you might never recover. In a random game cold streaks can continue forever. Arc likes to point out to my recent winning streak where I had an inordinate numbers of royals in a short period of time. But what about my "cold streak" when I went 180,000+ hands without a royal? During that cold streak I kept saying to myself "I'm due, I'm due." I kept telling myself I was due after 40,000 hands, and after 80,000 and after 120,000 and after 160,000 hands....

    If the "math guys" think the math is going to bail them out then they believe in voodoo because they are violating the basic rule of play which is the machine is random. The bell curve that Arc so much likes to discuss applies to all games and all players in all casinos and where you fall on that random bell curve is nothing but random. Except I do concede that playing the appropriate strategy will help your results. But for Arc to say or believe that the math will bail him out is absolute nonsense. The math does not apply to any single, individual player on any machine at any time. It's random for heaven's sake.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    I have no qualms with anyone who plays that way, but it is a WASTE OF LIFE!
    Well, you are very bold on this forum to say that devoted video poker players who might spend hours playing are wasting their lives. LOL

    I think people who use a stick to hit a little ball in a field and into a little hole are wasting their lives. I think people who get on a big ship to go out in the water to go to restaurants and clubs and hit golf balls and see shows could very well do the same thing on land without the risks of sea sickness, storms, etc.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  7. #47
    Alan, you're back doing what-ifs. It's a waste of time to respond to one possible future when there exists and infinite number defined by a bell curve.

    No math guy thinks the math will "bail them out". They know there is no regression to the mean. However, if they are playing positive opportunities then their future has a better chance of being profitable than someone playing negative games.

    The past is the past. It has no bearing on the future and the math guys know this.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    a person should never count on luck when it comes to money.
    Arc, are you telling us that luck is not a factor when you are playing a video poker machine with an "expected edge" of perhaps a half-percent plus some other "bennies" thrown in such as perhaps slot club points and free play?

    And isn't your positive pay table also based on "what ifs"??
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Arc, are you telling us that luck is not a factor when you are playing a video poker machine with an "expected edge" of perhaps a half-percent plus some other "bennies" thrown in such as perhaps slot club points and free play?

    And isn't your positive pay table also based on "what ifs"??
    Of course luck will be a factor. What I stated is you shouldn't "count on" luck. What I meant is simply how one plans their play. The higher the edge you have the better the odds are you will be a winner. Nothing complicated. I might end up winning with bad luck if I have a 1% edge. I will never win with bad luck with no edge.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Of course luck will be a factor. What I stated is you shouldn't "count on" luck. What I meant is simply how one plans their play. The higher the edge you have the better the odds are you will be a winner. Nothing complicated. I might end up winning with bad luck if I have a 1% edge. I will never win with bad luck with no edge.
    Very good Arc. Then why do you think that having loss limits and win goals wouldn't help you manage those periods of bad luck?
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  11. #51
    It's fun watching arci make it up as he goes, then scrambling around to patch up past statements when the heat gets turned up. Like this one example: "the machines have no memory so they'll never remember past results" vs. this gem: "If you play negative games you will lose because the math always has its way".

    I'm still waiting for the important information that will tell me how I can't possibly hold onto the $32,000 I recently won. Oh wait!! The machines don't have a memory, so I can't lose it! Or....the math will have its way and just snatch it from me when I'm not looking, because I'm playing a 99.1% game instead of a 100.1% game!! Even funnier Maybe I'll have to wait longer than arci posting those "7" $1000 winners so we can see what they look like.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 12-28-2012 at 04:07 PM.

  12. #52
    Rob, would you mind rephrasing your comment so it acts as a contribution to the discussion? Thanks.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Rob, would you mind rephrasing your comment so it acts as a contribution to the discussion? Thanks.
    Sure. Isn't it laughable how AP's spend all their capital claiming how a 1% difference in game EV makes all the difference between being a winner and a loser, then when pressed they claim that since machines have no memory, then there's no telling what will happen. And since I was ahead in the low five figures since retiring from professional play AND I just won another $32k, I await the AP words of wisdom that will tell me how--and maybe when would be nice--the math is gonna take it all back, and more! After all, arci claims there's no way to beat negative games which is all I do, and he says you can't count on luck for anything except some baloney about how bad luck being combined with an "edge" will make an AP a profit. Just plain silly.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Very good Arc. Then why do you think that having loss limits and win goals wouldn't help you manage those periods of bad luck?
    Simple, you can only determine streaks in hindsight. There is no way to predict them. Hence, your win/loss goals can't help. You are just as likely to stop because of a win goal right when you were going to do even better. You could reach a loss limit right before your luck would have turned around. And, to top it off, when you return you could go immediately into a cold streak.

    You see, what-ifs work both ways. Since there's no way to know what the future will bring, there's no way to set a plan. I can only repeat this so many times. The ER of your future play is the same between any two hands. It doesn't change. Doing something based on the results of your last few hands is meaningless.
    Last edited by arcimede$; 12-28-2012 at 05:05 PM.

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Sure. Isn't it laughable how AP's spend all their capital claiming how a 1% difference in game EV makes all the difference between being a winner and a loser, then when pressed they claim that since machines have no memory, then there's no telling what will happen.
    The only thing laughable is your logic. Many APers put a million dollars through the machines every month. That insignificant 1% works out to $10K each and every month. One can only wonder how you come up with such stupid logic over and over again.

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    And since I was ahead in the low five figures since retiring from professional play AND I just won another $32k, I await the AP words of wisdom that will tell me how--and maybe when would be nice--the math is gonna take it all back, and more! After all, arci claims there's no way to beat negative games which is all I do, and he says you can't count on luck for anything except some baloney about how bad luck being combined with an "edge" will make an AP a profit. Just plain silly.
    We already know you will lie about anything. Your lies about your 4500 sq ft, err make that 3950 sq ft. home is absolute proof. We also know you have been making these same types of winning claims while living in a small apartment. Therefore, nothing you claim is believable. So, you made your bed of lies, now you have to live in it.

  16. #56
    Arc, help me out with this. I think the operative words are these:

    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    There is no way to predict
    We both agree there is no way to predict anything with a random video poker machine, yet, when you sit at a machine and say the return is 99.2% or 99.5% that is nothing more than a prediction, isn't it? It's a prediction based on "expert play" given the pay table.

    This is why so many of us embrace the idea of a win goal and a loss limit because we just don't believe in predictions at a random game. We certainly hope that the expected return becomes a real return, but we cannot truly believe that the expected return will become the real return because we know the games are random. So, we protect ourselves with win goals and loss limits.

    Ironically, the "advantage players" must be true believers in the predictions on the glass of the game -- the pay table and "expert play" -- otherwise they would also accept win goals in the face of a random game.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  17. #57
    you made your bed of lies, now you have to live in it should be you made your bed of lies, now you have to sleep in it. I want to be sure that the young children reading this at least learn what is proper diction (choice of words). They certainly aren't learning much about the art and tact of adult discussions.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  18. #58
    Don't mind arci and his repititious lies, even though he can't even get the grammar right Alan. What could you expect from someone in his predicament who won't (or should we say, CAN'T?) post pictures of claimed wins, vs. someone who does (and I'll keep the best part out since he'll take it right between the eyes anyway!)? Classic jealousy

    Psst....Can you just IMAGINE how hot under the collar he's getting as he reads this, and just can't let anyone else see it! Please arci, never die during my lifetime
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 12-28-2012 at 06:01 PM.

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    We both agree there is no way to predict anything with a random video poker machine, yet, when you sit at a machine and say the return is 99.2% or 99.5% that is nothing more than a prediction, isn't it? It's a prediction based on "expert play" given the pay table.
    It's a prediction of sorts. The ER along with the variance allows one to understand the range of possible results.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    This is why so many of us embrace the idea of a win goal and a loss limit because we just don't believe in predictions at a random game. We certainly hope that the expected return becomes a real return, but we cannot truly believe that the expected return will become the real return because we know the games are random. So, we protect ourselves with win goals and loss limits.
    The problem is they provide no protection. That is an illusion.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Ironically, the "advantage players" must be true believers in the predictions on the glass of the game -- the pay table and "expert play" -- otherwise they would also accept win goals in the face of a random game.
    No, knowledgeable players understand your goals only provide you with the illusion of control. In addition, most good players track their results just in case the "glass" might be wrong.

  20. #60
    Arc, let me take your comments one at a time:

    You are saying that expected return is only a prediction of sorts, okay, good. We're in agreement. There is a range of possible results. When you sit down at a 99.5% return game it doesn't mean you are going to finish with a 99.5% return. In fact, it's another reason to embrace win goals because we all know we don't know what will happen. No one ever went broke quitting when ahead. (I am paraphrasing my father who said "no one ever went broke selling a stock at a profit.")

    Then, Arc, you say win goals "provide no protection. That is an illusion." Oh, come on Arc! Everybody knows that a loss limit keeps you from losing it all. And I will concede there is debate about whether or not to quit when you reach a win goal or to adjust your win goal higher with stop loss limits that are increased.

    Then you say that "goals only provide you with the illusion of control." Well Arc, your pay tables are an illusion as well. Next time you're in a casino ask some other players how many royals they had in their life. I have met many, many players who never had a royal. Without a royal, you can't have a theoretical positive game, can you?
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

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