Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[arcimede$]

Wrong Alan. Your loss limits do not change the expectation. You are just as likely to win after reaching a loss limit as you are to win the next time you play. Stopping only delays the ongoing process of playing. It changes nothing. If you think it changes anything that is an illusion.

As for the pay tables being an illusion I can only shake my head. They are, in fact, very real as anyone who plays can tell. Every time you play a hand the pay table reveals itself. About as far from an illusion as you can get.

[Alan Mendelson]

Wrong Alan. Your loss limits do not change the expectation.

Oh hear you go again Arc. No one ever said loss limits do anything about changing "expectation." Expectation is expectation, period. Loss limits keep you from going broke. You might be just as likely to win after reaching a loss limit, but if you have no money to play you will never win anything.

Pay tables are real, but if you dont hit the draws they are only an illusion of what could be or might have been.

[slingshot]

Well, you are very bold on this forum to say that devoted video poker players who might spend hours playing are wasting their lives. LOL

I think people who use a stick to hit a little ball in a field and into a little hole are wasting their lives. I think people who get on a big ship to go out in the water to go to restaurants and clubs and hit golf balls and see shows could very well do the same thing on land without the risks of sea sickness, storms, etc.

I'm talking about chasing after a continuum that never ends. I played golf on the weekend and enjoyed it, but I wasn't out there trying for perfection day in and day out. I'm getting more and more to the point of believing that short-term strategy is for real about the only way, besides extra good luck, to come out ahead.

[arcimede$]

Oh hear you go again Arc. No one ever said loss limits do anything about changing "expectation." Expectation is expectation, period. Loss limits keep you from going broke. You might be just as likely to win after reaching a loss limit, but if you have no money to play you will never win anything.

The problem hasn't changed the next time you play. You are just as likely to lose then. If you're a repeat player, you can run but you can't hide from randomness. Look, I think loss limits are a good thing for most players because they don't understand VP play very well. Anything to reduce their overall play is a good thing. But don't confuse that with a claim that loss limits will make any difference over the long haul.

Pay tables are real, but if you dont hit the draws they are only an illusion of what could be or might have been.

Back with the what-if's again. If you step on the brakes coming up to an intersection and they don't work you will understand reality. In the case of pay tables you experience reality every hand you play. Remember nada is also part of the pay table.

[Alan Mendelson]

Come on Arc, you don't pay attention to "nada" on the pay table. The part you pay attention to are the pays that are supposed to give you the golden positive expectation that is your anthem for playing.

"the long haul" is exactly why you want to use loss limits and win goals with a rising stop loss. It's the "loss limit" that keeps you in the action unless you have deep pockets (like a casino) or you are willing to blow through every dime you have.

Again, I need to know why -- WHY -- only so called "advantage video poker players" criticize win goals and loss limits? This is really something that I need explained. Because frankly, I really can't understand why ONLY video poker players don't use win goals and loss limits while everyone else does. And by everyone else, I mean, EVERYONE ELSE.

[arcimede$]

Come on Arc, you don't pay attention to "nada" on the pay table. The part you pay attention to are the pays that are supposed to give you the golden positive expectation that is your anthem for playing.

It's still part of the pay table. Every possible result has a pay ... some are just zero.

"the long haul" is exactly why you want to use loss limits and win goals with a rising stop loss. It's the "loss limit" that keeps you in the action unless you have deep pockets (like a casino) or you are willing to blow through every dime you have.

They still don't change anything. They are only a mechanism to reduce play. That can be accomplished in many different ways.

Again, I need to know why -- WHY -- only so called "advantage video poker players" criticize win goals and loss limits? This is really something that I need explained. Because frankly, I really can't understand why ONLY video poker players don't use win goals and loss limits while everyone else does. And by everyone else, I mean, EVERYONE ELSE.

Simple, because you refuse to take the time to understand what I have provided. You continue to spew the same meaningless drivel no matter what.

[Alan Mendelson]

What you provide is a belief that somehow when you play a positive expectation game that you will, in fact, have positive results. You play based on your belief. There is no evidence, no fact, no proof, or anything that you will have positive results.

Yet, even though you have this belief that you will win, you criticize a policy that has been proven to preserve bankroll and to guarantee that a player will walk out of a casino with their profit.

And you even acknowledge that there are no guarantees playing video poker, so why do you criticize a proven money management system which says cut your losses and let your profits run?

[Rob.Singer]

What's even more telling is how arci expects others to believe AP's win and in fact he wants us right here to believe HE wins, yet he has no proof, and he can't even provide ONE EXAMPLE of him hitting a four figure jackpot. Oh I believe he's scrambling off each week to get away from the misery & boredom to play the Indian vp machines, and he's come up with quite the story about the "grandfathered-in" games that no where else has. But I'm betting on he's sitting all that time at the nickel machines with a bunch of other elderly, lonely people and the rest is all made up because he has such a neurotic belief in how math should work in every instance in life.

As I've said over & over, he manufactures situations and ramrods discussions into infinity because he has nothing else to stimulate him. Realizing the truth about him easily explains his contrarian views to common sense approaches, and why he finds it necessary to continually create lies about me--someone he truly detests because of how I've been able to expose his phoney Internet portrayal thru the years.

[Alan Mendelson]

Come on Rob, this isn't about you, nor is it about what you claim about Arc's life. Please stick to the issue here which strikes right at the heart of your strategy -- win goals.

Now, I don't play win goals as you do, but I think my adjustment of your strategy adjusting a rising stop loss (you use the $2500 goal) makes sense for my goals.

[Rob.Singer]

It's about the constant lies arci tells about me.

What I've always told people is even if they don't adapt every part of my approach exactly as I do it, just by utilizing my concept as a stepping stone to whatever is comfortable for them is a positive. The one thing players want to do is not get bored playing and to have as much enjoyment as they can. And if I can convince them that just sitting there pounding away on the same game and denomination hours on end is counter-productive to winning and having fun, I have helped them.

[arcimede$]

What you provide is a belief that somehow when you play a positive expectation game that you will, in fact, have positive results. You play based on your belief. There is no evidence, no fact, no proof, or anything that you will have positive results.

Get serious Alan. We're talking simple math here. Possible results have nothing to do with "belief", they are perfectly described by a bell curve. And, since I just completed my play for the year I can state that my results fall within the bell curve for my play and yield yet another profit.

Yet, even though you have this belief that you will win, you criticize a policy that has been proven to preserve bankroll and to guarantee that a player will walk out of a casino with their profit.

No, what's been proven by mathematical analysis is your claim is ridiculous nonsense. More of your meaningless drivel. Sorry if I'm tough on you, Alan, but you are claiming 2+2 = 5.

And you even acknowledge that there are no guarantees playing video poker, so why do you criticize a proven money management system which says cut your losses and let your profits run?

I don't criticize it as a system to limit play. I simply want people to understand the reality of what actually happens. It does not, in and of itself, "cut losses". The only thing that will cut losses in negative situations is reduced play.

You can lead a man to knowledge but you can't make him learn.

[Alan Mendelson]

I didn't have to read you entire response above, Arc. I got only as far as you saying "We're talking simple math here." Exactly right. So here is a simple way to look at playing your video poker machine with the positive pay table:

1. You take $5 out of your pocket.
2. You put it in the machine.
3. You are out five dollars.

That is the simple math behind video poker. The math stops right there. After that it's wishing and hoping and praying.

Now, let's see what happens when you wish and hope and pray and you get a favorable result:

1. The machine pays you $10.
2. You hit the cash out button.
3. You leave with the $10.

That is also simple math. That's where the math ends. And that is the reality of what happens -- not your bell curve, not your expectation, not your proper strategy.

There are people who have knowledge, and then there are people who are really smart.

[arcimede$]

I didn't have to read you entire response above, Arc.

Of course you didn't. Thanks for proving my point. You really don't want to understand. For some inexplicable reason you believe you are smarter than all the mathematicians in the world. One can look at that kind of arrogance and chuckle.

I got only as far as you saying "We're talking simple math here." Exactly right. So here is a simple way to look at playing your video poker machine with the positive pay table:

1. You take $5 out of your pocket.
2. You put it in the machine.
3. You are out five dollars.

That is the simple math behind video poker. The math stops right there. After that it's wishing and hoping and praying.

Now, let's see what happens when you wish and hope and pray and you get a favorable result:

1. The machine pays you $10.
2. You hit the cash out button.
3. You leave with the $10.

That is also simple math. That's where the math ends. And that is the reality of what happens -- not your bell curve, not your expectation, not your proper strategy.

There are people who have knowledge, and then there are people who are really smart.

And then there are people who are hopelessly stubborn. This type of person seems to believe they can describe the world with a couple of what-ifs. Their view of the world will not be overridden by silly things called facts and mathematical proofs. They already know it all.

[arcimede$]

Alan, there was a time centuries ago where people would argue about these kind of issues. Each would provide their own anecdotal evidence. Then something changed. A discipline called statistics was developed by some really smart folks. Now we no longer have to argue. The answer is available to anyone who chooses to use the technology available to them. Of course, some people still choose to live in the dark ages.

[Rob.Singer]

Haha....it's either spend time with a wife in a lonely house of pain, or create stupid arguments with unsupportable babble that helps fill in all that seemingly endless time of boredom that seems to never end. I'm glad it only takes a few moments to read about his tortuous life. We're getting ready to go out to the movies, dinner, and then some dancing. See what respecting a spouse nets, in "mathematical terms?!"

[quahaug]

Haha....it's either spend time with a wife in a lonely house of pain, or create stupid arguments with unsupportable babble that helps fill in all that seemingly endless time of boredom that seems to never end. I'm glad it only takes a few moments to read about his tortuous life. We're getting ready to go out to the movies, dinner, and then some dancing. See what respecting a spouse nets, in "mathematical terms?!"

WOW I'm younger than you and could never keep up! Go Rob!

[Rob.Singer]

We're thankfully still healthy and the places we go for this entertainment are not more than five miles away. I also never forced my wife to play when I do/did so I could get theoretically closer to long-term expectation, so she remains mobile and happy today. It's all got to do with human respect.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, first ignore Rob.

Arc: I am fully aware of how video poker is played. I am fully aware of the math behind it and I even understand your rationale that makes you think you will come out ahead. But for the life of me I follow the age old wisdom that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and in the case of video poker, a nice win in the pocket is worth more than the dream and hope of sitting there trying to hit a royal.

I know and recognize that even playing at a positive edge machine you could hit a cold streak and lose your profit and then lose more -- and more.

This is why I now embrace a win goal with a rising stop loss. It is not because I disagree or challenge the math, but it is because I have a limited budget when I go to play. If I had an unlimited budget I would fly to your casino and sit in front of that magical One Eyed Jacks machine of yours and have my meals catered in, and tip someone to hold my seat while I took restroom breaks and napped.

It is the reality of a limited budget which makes loss limits and win goals with rising stop losses vital.

You like to discuss and use as evidence to support your argument my recent run of royals and if I had quit early in any given session I would have missed the royals. Well, the fact is in each session I had not yet reached my loss limit for the session, and while winning I still hadn't reach a rising stop loss. So the bottom line is you can keep playing longer and hit a royal even with a rising stop loss or before you reach your loss limit.

Maybe you will accept win goals and loss limits this way: they are for us, the meek. The guys and gals who don't have the cajones to keep feeding money in the machine to hear the golden tones at the positive end of the great bell curve when it rings. Win goals and loss limits are for us mere mortals who are happy with a small piece of the pie and do not have to eat the whole pie.

You Arc can eat all the pie I don't eat. God Bless and happy new year to you and your family! (I prefer apple, lemon meringue, but I really like oreo cheesecake or heathbar crunch cheesecake from Cheesecake Factory).

[arcimede$]

Arc: I am fully aware of how video poker is played. I am fully aware of the math behind it and I even understand your rationale that makes you think you will come out ahead. But for the life of me I follow the age old wisdom that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and in the case of video poker, a nice win in the pocket is worth more than the dream and hope of sitting there trying to hit a royal.

There's nothing wrong with that. If you want to stand up and do a cartwheel between every hand I have no problem with that either. My point has always been that those kind of activities do nothing to improve your ER over time. They don't hurt you either and they may lead to playing less on a negative game which has some value.

I know and recognize that even playing at a positive edge machine you could hit a cold streak and lose your profit and then lose more -- and more.

And we have no control over that either. If you are randomly dealt cards that lead to poor results then you will lose.

This is why I now embrace a win goal with a rising stop loss. It is not because I disagree or challenge the math, but it is because I have a limited budget when I go to play. If I had an unlimited budget I would fly to your casino and sit in front of that magical One Eyed Jacks machine of yours and have my meals catered in, and tip someone to hold my seat while I took restroom breaks and napped.

It is the reality of a limited budget which makes loss limits and win goals with rising stop losses vital.

Your goals can be useful at reducing your play. Hence, they can help you play less which can preserve your bankroll. However, my technique of doing cartwheels between every hand also has a similar effect. It is the reduced play that is key. I'm just trying to help you understand what's really going on. There is no magic in win/loss goals.

You like to discuss and use as evidence to support your argument my recent run of royals and if I had quit early in any given session I would have missed the royals. Well, the fact is in each session I had not yet reached my loss limit for the session, and while winning I still hadn't reach a rising stop loss. So the bottom line is you can keep playing longer and hit a royal even with a rising stop loss or before you reach your loss limit.

Yeah, but what happens if your first statements comes to pass? "you could hit a cold streak" ... What if that happens every time you go to the casino?

Maybe you will accept win goals and loss limits this way: they are for us, the meek. The guys and gals who don't have the cajones to keep feeding money in the machine to hear the golden tones at the positive end of the great bell curve when it rings. Win goals and loss limits are for us mere mortals who are happy with a small piece of the pie and do not have to eat the whole pie.

Of course, you may get none of the pie at all.

Look at what you've done here. You start off talking about losing on a positive machine and then go on to focus on winning on a negative machine. Why did you do that?

Once again, I have no problem with a person using these techniques. I'm simply pointing out they do not change the game. You will see a random frequency of cards. It matters not when you stop playing any given session. Over time that frequency is predictable using statistics. You don't get better cards dealt to you because you might quit when you reach one of your goals. You've been on a good roll for awhile. Wait until to hit a bad streak and tell me what a big difference they make.

You Arc can eat all the pie I don't eat. God Bless and happy new year to you and your family! (I prefer apple, lemon meringue, but I really like oreo cheesecake or heathbar crunch cheesecake from Cheesecake Factory).

I'm a fan of good old dutch apple ala mode. I also like cherry cheese cake and strawberry pie when done right.

[Alan Mendelson]

Since we both agree that nothing will change the "expected return" then the only thing to focus on is money management.

Since I don't have the deep pockets then I have to manage my money carefully taking my wins when I get them and cutting my losses so I can preserve my money for another day of entertainment.

Since my goal is entertainment, I need to preserve my money so win goals and loss limits suit me fine.