Originally Posted by
Alan Mendelson
Over on the Rincon facebook page I suggested that with the prize pool and the 2500 players there for the drawings (the place was packed, hard to find a seat at anything) it worked out to $40 per player there. If the estimate I got of 2.5-million entries in play (each entry = one tier credit) then I figured the winner of the $50,000 had probably 12% of the entries in the drawing. See my report from Saturday for details.
I had about 58,000 entries at the time of the drawing, or about 2.3% of the entries. When I checked in for the drawing (you had to swipe your card and a Total Rewards employee verified it) I got a raised eyebrow at the number of points I had. Later, when a TR staffer told me there were about 2.5-million entries and I mentioned I had about 58,000 he told me I had a lot. Yet, there was still the luck of the draw and I didn't even get one of the $1,000 free plays (which by the way would have made me a very happy camper).
None of my play in January will count towards February's drawings, but it will count again in December. However, the chances that I will be there New Year's Eve are very slim.
But let's talk about New Year's Eve. How many entries will there be? I think January was the big month for entries because I think after this past drawing, a lot of "lower level players" will realize there is only a small chance of winning anything, so I think for the rest of the year the number of players who show up for the drawings will be fewer. With the exception of New Year's Eve where I am sure the casino will be packed -- as it is every New Year's Eve. But again, being there does no good unless you have entries from previous play.
So, I am going to make some assumptions. I am going to assume that January's "entries" of 2.5-million will be the peak, and for the rest of the year the monthly entries that will show up in the December draw (remember only those who show up have their tier credits actually entered) will average 2-million per month. On New Year's Eve I think the entry pool will be about 25-million.
Let's say I continue to play at my January pace (unlikely, but for the purpose of this I will make the assumption) I will have 696,000 tier points or entries. Let's round it to 700,000 to make it easy. I will have 2.8% of the entries which would give me $28,000 value for the drawing?
I am estimating that my "cost" of getting that many entries, based on my January play, (and I hit no royals in January), at about $8,000. $8,000 is just one royal at the $2 level which is what I am playing now on the 8/5 Aces and Faces. And I am not including the free play and comp values for my play.
So Arc, do you still think its an advantage play for me, and an even better advantage play for a high roller (perhaps at baccarat)??