Is this the ULTIMATE casino ADVANTAGE play??

[Alan Mendelson]

I think it's appropriate that I also post here what I post on the LVA forum where I was criticized for saying the Rincon $2-million promotion is an advantage play. The latest "challenge" is about the free play that high rollers get, but my critic who goes by "roadtrip" has accepted some of my information conditionally. Apparently he doesn't believe a word I say. So here is my latest post:

So the debate comes down to this:

We have two months where we know a high limit player on the $100 8/5 Aces and Faces machines will get a return of at least 99.86% and then for ten more months will have about 100.26%. Since I am math challenged, what is the annualized rate for the full year? (No other comps, perks, or drawings included.)

Well, I don't know if I did the math correctly but I get an annualized rate of 100.193-percent for the full 12-months, not including any additional comps, perks, or wins for the drawings, or even additional free play or value from gift cards purchased with reward credits.

Now a little inside info:

The 8/5 Aces and Faces is the last of the better paying video poker games for the high limit slots at Rincon. Last year they got rid of all of the full pay games including 9/6 jacks and regular 8/5 Bonus. Somehow two games slipped through the cracks -- 8/5 Aces and Faces, the 8/5 Aces Bonu$ are still available at the $100 and $25 level. (They are also available as low as 25-cents, however.)

9/6 Jacks is no longer on the property in fact throughout Rincon you will find 8/5 Jacks.
8/5 Super Aces Bonus is available only as high as $5 which is the only other full pay game.
There is an 8/5 Bonus double super times pay game but that, I think, only has a maximum of 50-cents per coin.

And then I posted this update because I might be challenged for using a higher return for the first two months of the year before the "free play" starts:

I might have made a mistake, depending on your interpretation, roadtrip.

If we used the first two months with just the return of the game at 99.26% plus ten months at 100.26% then the annualized rate is 100.093% for the full 12 months. Still above 100% without additional comps, perks, drawings, multiple point days, additional free play, gift cards, free drinks, pretzels or all the handiwipes you can take from the cage.

[arcimede$]

On that other forum I was asked to justify my points about free play offers and I used my own example of what I get and I suggested that $100 players would be getting a lot more which would dramatically improve their chances to dominate this Rincon promotion throughout the year. Arc responded on the other thread with "OMG, it turns out money is an APer afterall" and I'd like to ask here if you agree with my numbers now?

Alan, it's your numbers so I'm not sure anyone else can validate them. However, your math appears to be correct and there were items that would still add to your advantage (like this promotion).

[Alan Mendelson]

thanks Arc. I assure you I am not getting any special deal. I do have the mailers from the casino, and if they want me to take photos of them and post them I would be happy to do that.

For my friends in Vegas, they should know that the competition to give comps is very intense here in Southern California. There are even four card clubs here in LA that "pay" players as much as $10 an hour to sit at poker tables (limited number of hours at the $10 rate). But in general $5 an hour is about average.

There are about ten million people living within a one hour drive of Pechanga, Rincon, Pala, Morongo and about a half dozen other Tribal Casinos and that makes this market even more competitive than Vegas because So Cal has more potential customers and much fewer casinos.

Now, the key thing is that there are a limited number of "better paying" games. Rincon, for example, has no more than 6 of the $100 games with 8/5 Aces and Faces. (It might only be four.) 9/6 Jacks or Better can no longer be found. Penny slots abound and of course we don't know what the payback is on those but we can't imagine it will be high. On table games while there are the regular payouts such as 3/2 Blackjack, and full payouts on craps the bet amounts are LIMITED which limits the casinos' risk.

I guess those folks who play in Vegas and in Florida don't realize the better deals here in SoCal, which is why many of us have STOPPED going to Vegas so often.

[Rob.Singer]

"roadtrip" is a known forum hack and has very limited knowledge on how to manufacture a +EV vp "opportunity". That's why I suggested you post your thoughts on the wizard's forum. The place oozes with escaping intellect, and they would love to analyze the heck out of this one.

Based on what I've read so far, since there's no serious vp player who could bang away at the $100 machines year-long, I suspect there will be a LOT of $5 players going after this. YOU might even think about chasing it.

[Alan Mendelson]

I couldn't for several reasons including a lack of money and I can't play on Tuesdays. But I know some $5 DDB players who could chase this.

[Rob.Singer]

Alan, the rules state that you get one entry for every tier credit (except on Tuesdays for about 17 hours it's three entries per tier credit). Please refresh: how much thru gets one tier credit?

Even though it's impossible to figure the value of those multiple $1000 fp & $50,000 drawings--or even that year-end $1,000,000 draw (even though AP's regularly estimate such things in order to justify the plays as good)--because you'd never know how many entries are in play, only a blind dufus would claim this is not one of the best play opportunities around, if not THE BEST, especially given the available games, the special cash giveaway days having nothing to do with this promo, along with all the other ancillary items you mentioned. I see this as a 3%-5% "positive play" at the end of the day, if you add in those gas cards, the food, and all those other extras. In fact, who knows what kind of other specials a player would get who plays millions thru each month.

I haven't read anything on LVA, but if any of them can't see this play as a mid to high roller's vp dream come true, they're exactly the hacks that their reputations have earned.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob: for video poker $10 of coin-in earns 1-tier credit. Each tier credit earned on Tuesdays gets 3 entries. For slots, $5 of coin-in earns one-tier credit. Again, if played on Tuesdays that tier credit earns three entries.

I don't understand the reference about "17 hours" so please explain that?

I agree this is a high roller's dream come true, especially since there are a limited number of $100 machines with the last of the best games in the casino -- the $100 aces and faces. Though I am pretty sure $100 Aces Bonu$ is there also.

My only regret is that I can't hang out there all day and night Tuesdays to see who is playing those machines.

[Alan Mendelson]

Bob Dancer just wrote about a promotion at the Riviera that he played... on a game with under 99% expected return. http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0108.cfm Really??

[Rob.Singer]

Bob Dancer just wrote about a promotion at the Riviera that he played... on a game with under 99% expected return. http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0108.cfm Really??

That tells you what an idiot gambler he is and how Shackleford is easily manipulated by this phony. That promo was bad from the start and only got worse. Dancer used every trick in the book to create a positive play out of thin air, and for what? TO JUSTIFY PLAYING WHEN HE KNEW HE SHOULDN'T HAVE, AND TO GIVE CREDENCE TO LOSING UNTOLD THOUSANDS IN THE PROCESS. As I've said many times, advantage play manufactures the biggest addicts in the vp community. And you can tell when things are over-the-edge bad. Dancer ALWAYS puts in some irrelevant info about his wife in the middle of his tales of going down the tubes. I really think he can't help himself talk about these things, as it mirrors problem gamblers who actually WANT to lose so they can face the newfound challenges they've just created.

That approx. 17 hours (in a day) is something I read on the Rincon site about the amount of time entries are earned from play for the "other" cash giveaways each month.

[arcimede$]

Once again robki demonstrates his lack of any understanding of mathematics. Alan, when all he does is attack another person in a comment and his attack is completely silly, you should consider deleting it. These kind of attacks are exactly what you don't need on your forum.

[Alan Mendelson]

Yes, Rob, it surprised me that Dancer wrote about this promotion as well. I couldn't imagine the promotion being beneficial when the games from the start were so poor. He was putting too much emphasis on the 5X points on one day.

I raised it here because Rincon has better games -- much better, in fact for advantage players -- plus triple entries on Tuesdays.

I am not familiar at all with this reference to "17 hours" so can you point to something I can read on the Rincon site? Can you copy and paste or give a link?
I do know that certain "free play" promotions run from 8am till midnight -- but that's 16 hours. For example on Sundays this month there are "mystery cash" bonuses that you have to download/upload from 8am to 11:59pm. But again, that's 16 hours. There are other free plays that can be used 24 hours a day including weeklies and certain dailies and the monthly.

[Alan Mendelson]

Once again robki demonstrates his lack of any understanding of mathematics. Alan, when all he does is attack another person in a comment and his attack is completely silly, you should consider deleting it. These kind of attacks are exactly what you don't need on your forum.

Arc, to tell you the truth, I don't see Rob's comments as being too far off. When you read Dancer's article you're kind of scratching your head and saying to yourself "this is an advantage play" or "what was he thinking?"

Now it's true that the promotion was changed by the casino but at that point you might want to bail.

Im also not clear about this: did he tell his audience about this promotion ahead of time, or as it was going on, or told no one until the publication of the article? Not that it matters, but a true journalist would not keep inside info to himself and act on it. If he knew that the promotion had changed he should have announced it to his public followers whether it be on the radio or through his website columns. There is an element of public trust that must be recognized.

[Rob.Singer]

Dancer says he didn't mention this fabulous "positive play" (or, "good bet" according to the Wizard) because he didn't want others to muscle him out with their participation. Take what you will out of that. What I found typical of him is when he discovered the play wasn't "all that" as he espoused it would be, he couldn't bail. Most responsible players would say WHY NOT?.

As for arci's illogical comment about "the math", if he had read Dancer's column he'd have seen it was all right there for eyes to see because that's Dancer's MO--explain his play choices in detail after it's all done. Please read things before making empty comments next time.

If anyone noticed, Dancer ended his column by bad-mouthing everything about the Riviera including the employees' competence, exhibiting an immature level of understanding about how casinos operate...and why. He deflected the blame for the entire fiasco on the Riviera, when vp pros should know and be prepared for--and take the appropriate steps necessary as required when options are exercised mid-promo by casino management--any potential moving targets. He displayed as childish an attitude here as I've ever seen from him, and it unfortunately may be age-related.

[Alan Mendelson]

Just the basic facts as Dancer describes them tells me it wasn't close to an advantage play. When you combined the expected return on the game he was playing with the cash back included it was only a 99% return. He was banking on the 5X points promotion which the Wizard was told about but which never happened -- and it wasn't in the rules when he got there. Secondly, he was banking on winning more promotion drawings but the promotion drawings were not that big and he was pretty much shut out and certainly didn't get the big ones that would have covered his losses from playing the negative video poker game.

So to sum up the facts as Dancer reported:
1. He could not confirm the 5X multiplier and he played anyway hoping it would come through -- but it didn't
2. He says the machines were tight and he was on a game that even with cash back returned only 99%.
3. The potential prizes weren't that big and he admitted he'd be "locked up there" all weekend for so many drawings during the day.

[redietz]

This is the first Dancer article I can recall where he didn't spell out the loss he incurred. Usually he names the number and explains why, despite the loss, it was a good play. I do not recall him ever skipping the amount lost.

Considering the fact he ran out of money, I think a logical conclusion is that he took a really ugly beating -- so ugly he didn't want to mention the number.

[regnis]

He's supposed to keep firing--he's an advantage player. Loss limits are no good. Hit up the ATM, sell your portfolio, borrow from ARCI, keep firing because it's a good bet and in the long run he will win.

Or maybe not-lol

[redietz]

Dancer's articles have become a map of how to go broke playing vp. Especially for those who don't get shill show-up money and rebates.

[regnis]

What percentage do we use for free cheap liquor to determine the .001% edge we are playing for.

[Alan Mendelson]

He's supposed to keep firing--he's an advantage player. Loss limits are no good. Hit up the ATM, sell your portfolio, borrow from ARCI, keep firing because it's a good bet and in the long run he will win.

Or maybe not-lol

Ya know, regnis, you raised a really important and valid question here: When does an advantage player throw in the towel on an advantage play?

[regnis]

Ya know, regnis, you raised a really important and valid question here: When does an advantage player throw in the towel on an advantage play?

Or just recognize that it is an RNG and he (or the machine) is in a cold cycle.