Is this the ULTIMATE casino ADVANTAGE play??

[Alan Mendelson]

Or just recognize that it is an RNG and he (or the machine) is in a cold cycle.

Advantage players don't believe in cold cycles. So when do they throw in the towel? We need a resident advantage player to respond.

[Rob.Singer]

No wonder the Wizard recently said on his forum that things weren't going so well gamblingwise. I believe these two "expert APers" pooled their money for this one, and now at least Dancer's pointing fingers and blaming everyTHING and everyONE but himself for getting roped into what Alan identified as clearly NOT an "advantage play". And who puts that much money thru ANY machine at a dump like the Riviera anyway. Look for one or both of their marriages to take a hit over this.

[regnis]

When I was 21 (many years ago) my first several trips to Vegas were to the Riv.

They say it has been remodeled but I walked over there a few months ago and the smoke is so thick with the low ceilings you couldn't really tell.

[regnis]

Advantage players don't believe in cold cycles. So when do they throw in the towel? We need a resident advantage player to respond.

Let's put up a poll as to the various things that Arci will say

[Rob.Singer]

Advantage players don't believe in cold cycles. So when do they throw in the towel? We need a resident advantage player to respond.

I can answer that as a former AP. You NEVER throw in the towel unless all fund sources are exhausted when you're losing because, as the saying goes, it's not whether you win or lose; it's whether it was a good play or not. In this particular case, Dancer showed he believes in luck, as he really did expect to win several large drawings. Too bad/so sad. Now it looks like arci and his 7 cashout tickets, is the last of the "winning" APers

[regnis]

Long live arci--here here

[Alan Mendelson]

Let's put up a poll as to the various things that Arci will say

I am starting another thread with a poll. But it will be more general.

[Rob.Singer]

When I was 21 (many years ago) my first several trips to Vegas were to the Riv.

They say it has been remodeled but I walked over there a few months ago and the smoke is so thick with the low ceilings you couldn't really tell.

I went there one day this past year when they had that $1000 loss rebate promo. I won a few hundred in about a half hour and quickly left--never to return. The place reminds me of a bigger Ellis Island.

[regnis]

Do you mean the casino or the prison?

[Rob.Singer]

Do you mean the casino or the prison?

Yeah, it's hard to tell the people apart who go to those places.

[arcimede$]

Advantage players don't believe in cold cycles. So when do they throw in the towel? We need a resident advantage player to respond.

With random events players will experience hot and cold streaks. The machines do not. The machines will still be providing winning hands all through a cold streak. The players simply aren't hitting the keys at the right time to score the big wins.

With today's technology and continuous shuffle a player only see about one hand in several hundred thousand possible ones.

You never know when a cold streak will end because the length on any cold streak is also random. They can be long or they can be short. That's life when playing VP. It's all random. Making pattern based decisions when hands are based on an RNG is the epitome of nonsense.

[Alan Mendelson]

I will add this, Arc, you never know you are in a cold cycle until after you have been in a cold cycle. And of course no one knows when a cold cycle will end or when a hot cycle will start or when it will end.

And for these reasons you might want to accept one of the following:

1. Never make a second bet
2. Quit after you win because you may never win again
3. Quit after you lost because you might lose more

LOL

[arcimede$]

I will add this, Arc, you never know you are in a cold cycle until after you have been in a cold cycle. And of course no one knows when a cold cycle will end or when a hot cycle will start or when it will end.

And for these reasons you might want to accept one of the following:

1. Never make a second bet
2. Quit after you win because you may never win again
3. Quit after you lost because you might lose more

LOL

What one should 'accept" is that the cards will tend toward the frequencies expected with a random deal. That is, you will each and every card about the same amount. While you may see a variety of results in the short term, over time your results will approach the ER of your play.

[Alan Mendelson]

What one should 'accept" is that the cards will tend toward the frequencies expected with a random deal. That is, you will each and every card about the same amount. While you may see a variety of results in the short term, over time your results will approach the ER of your play.

Of course I agree but let me ask this question: why do certain games give certain premium pays to certain combinations?

Why do quad aces in DDB pay more than quad jacks when both quad combinations have the same frequencies?
Why does a royal flush pay more than a steel wheel (ace through five suited)?

Did anyone ever come up with a "low ball" video poker game?

[regnis]

What one should 'accept" is that the cards will tend toward the frequencies expected with a random deal. That is, you will each and every card about the same amount. While you may see a variety of results in the short term, over time your results will approach the ER of your play.

Or you can take a beating like Dancer did.

[arcimede$]

Of course I agree but let me ask this question: why do certain games give certain premium pays to certain combinations?

Why do quad aces in DDB pay more than quad jacks when both quad combinations have the same frequencies?
Why does a royal flush pay more than a steel wheel (ace through five suited)?

Because they wanted to have games with more excitement. Remember there's only one way to get aces, there's 3 ways to get 2-4 and 9 ways to get 5-K. There is a game where aces pay the same as eights.

Also, there is nothing that relates pay outs to probability.

[arcimede$]

Or you can take a beating like Dancer did.

That has nothing to do with VP itself. It has to do with promotions. Dancer assumed he was going to lose at VP while covering the losses and then some in the promotion. Did he miscalculate? Don't know. But a smart person should realize no one wins every promotion. If you know the odds then just alike a good VP game you will hit enough to make a profit over time.

[Alan Mendelson]

That has nothing to do with VP itself. It has to do with promotions. Dancer assumed he was going to lose at VP while covering the losses and then some in the promotion. Did he miscalculate? Don't know. But a smart person should realize no one wins every promotion. If you know the odds then just alike a good VP game you will hit enough to make a profit over time.

I would like to read more of his success stories. Not about the big ones that got away.

By the way, Pala Casino which is just down the road from Rincon (and actually closer to the 15 Freeway than Rincon) is now advertising its own year-long $2-million dollar promotion which is also based on play and has weekly drawings for cash and a car throughout the year -- but no year end million dollar drawing.

Later today I am going to call the marketing folks at Pala (if I can get through to them -- I've emailed them in the past and never got a response) to check on the details. There is information on their website www.palacasino.com .

The casino's website says:

•Use your Privileges card at any slot or table game and receive 10 bonus virtual entries for every Tier Point earned into our Four Car Giveaway Grand Prize Drawings.

However, I can't find info as to what constitutes a "tier point" and if slot play and table play and video poker play are the same or different?

[regnis]

But that didn't happen now several reported times for dancer. As Alan always says, it is still an RNG. Even if dancer miscalculated the edge, why does a point or less result in such a big loss. And why didn't he keep playing til he got even.

I'll tell you why--it is still all up to the cards and the RNG---and you just have to hit at the right time. Dancer just keeps proving that contrary to the claims of the APs

[Alan Mendelson]

and you just have to hit at the right time.

This of course is my criticism of the AP mantra. The APers say that the pay table will determine the results over the long term and I say that long term is only seen by the casino.

I still think you have to get lucky and hit the right percentage of winning hands or have a bankroll that is big enough to carry you over the Grand Canyon of losing sessions.