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Thread: Is this the ULTIMATE casino ADVANTAGE play??

  1. #61
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I would like to read more of his success stories. Not about the big ones that got away.
    Bob (as are many APers) is not prone to giving away their good plays. It may turn out that Bob hasn't had much success in these one time promotions lately so that's all he has to talk about. Also, he has gotten criticism in the past for being arrogant. Some of that was due to writing about big wins. So, he may be trying to answer those critics. Finally, he may be trying to subtlety dissuade people from going to Vegas to become pros which would reduce competition for good plays.

  2. #62
    Arc, are there really enough good plays for anyone to be a pro anymore in Vegas? I remember my lunch with Frank. He said there wasn't except for the short stint of those pooled machines at the M which were removed after a short while.

  3. #63
    Alan, (or anybody) speaking of good plays; I know of a casino here in SoCAl that has 10/6 Double Double Bonus Poker (100.07 payback with perfect play). It can be played at $1, 2, 5 and 25 levels. Now my question is: Do I shout it from the rooftops and inform VPFREE2 OR Do I keep my mouth shut and just play it myself. My concern is will the casino get rid of the game if there is very little play or will the casino get rid of it if there is too much AP play?
    I see that you must have checked out my Super Aces game at Rincon. When I told you about it before you weren't sure it was full pay, and now you know it is one of the few full pay games at Rincon.

    Jim
    Last edited by fly2rei; 01-10-2013 at 01:45 PM.

  4. #64
    You shout it out here.

  5. #65
    Ok Alan, just wanted to double check the facts before I did any `Shouting'. The game is 10/6 Double Double Bonus Poker, BUT the payback is only 99.958%, not 100.067%. They pulled the old trick of lowering the Straight Flush to 40 (200 for 5 coins). It is also only available at the $1, $10 and $25 dollar levels. At the $5 dollar level it changes back to 9/6 (250 for straight flush), 98.981% payback; why? I have no idea. It's at Agua Caliente in Rancho Mirage, in the High Limit room. They also have 9/6 Double Double Bonus Wheel Poker. I don't know how to calulate the payback, but I like playing it.
    Jim
    Last edited by fly2rei; 01-15-2013 at 03:26 PM.

  6. #66
    Alan I think the best play for a 7 stars player at Rincon is to play this promotion on point multiplier days`, not Tuesday. On Wednesday you would get 5x points for a comp level of .5%. At the prefered free play redemption rate for 7 stars your .5% comp rate becomes a .4% cash back rate the 99.25% return becomes a 99.65% return plus benefits. Don't you think taking the cash back rate from .08% to .4% offers better return than going from single drawing entries to triple drawing entries? I guess the real question would be...Is the marginal value of an additional drawing entry greater than .21%?

  7. #67
    Thanks bigfoot66. You made a good point about the extra comp points on multiplier days (both Mondays and Wednesdays during January, I don't have the schedule yet for February) would allow a high roller to earn more gift cards and free play, but did you read my report on the first drawing this past Saturday?

    Here is the link: http://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/showth...-000-winner-is...

    A high roller did indeed scoop up the $50,000 cash plus three of the $1,000 drawings and frankly I don't know if she played on any Tuesdays at all. She had at least 150,000 entries in the system without any play on Tuesdays. I had 58,000 entries in the system without playing on Tuesdays (I couldn't) and I won nothing on Saturday (I also lost a damn poker tournament and lost playing video poker for an extra kick in the pants... Saturday was not my day).

    But the real challenge is being the million dollar winner on New Year's Eve. So let me ask this: how does the extra comp points from play on Mondays and Wednesdays compare to being the million dollar winner on New Year's Eve? And don't forget the other $100,000 per month drawings through the rest of the year.

    These are academic questions at this point for me, because I know I don't stand a chance.

  8. #68
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I won nothing on Saturday (I also lost a damn poker tournament and lost playing video poker for an extra kick in the pants... Saturday was not my day).
    Wait, this couldn't be true. I thought a person using win goals always won.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    But the real challenge is being the million dollar winner on New Year's Eve. So let me ask this: how does the extra comp points from play on Mondays and Wednesdays compare to being the million dollar winner on New Year's Eve? And don't forget the other $100,000 per month drawings through the rest of the year.

    These are academic questions at this point for me, because I know I don't stand a chance.
    I suspect the comp points will always be an advantage for someone who doesn't "stand a chance". Now, we know that claim is not true. Even a person with one ticket has "a chance".

    You could do an approximation of your chances. If you can guess at the number of tickets for all the drawings you can put a value on them. For example, if you determine you have a 1000-1 odds on the million dollar drawing playing on Tuesdays than that is worth around $1000. Same consideration for the monthly drawings. You then compare that to having fewer tickets by playing on point multiplier days. Finally, you take the difference and compare that to the difference in freeplay, etc.

    This is standard fare for APers.

  9. #69
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Wait, this couldn't be true. I thought a person using win goals always won.
    Win goals protect the wins. I didn't have any. I lost from the get-go. However, my stop loss protected me from going broke. I lost my budgeted limit for the day and then stayed around for the remaining drawings and shmoozed with the managers and Total Rewards crew to get the information I used for my report about the drawings. I also enjoyed a nice dinner with my comps.

    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    I suspect the comp points will always be an advantage for someone who doesn't "stand a chance". Now, we know that claim is not true. Even a person with one ticket has "a chance".
    As I wrote in my report on Saturday night, a Total Rewards person told me that one of the $1,000 free play winners in fact only had one-point (free entry) in the drawing.

    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    You could do an approximation of your chances. If you can guess at the number of tickets for all the drawings you can put a value on them. For example, if you determine you have a 1000-1 odds on the million dollar drawing playing on Tuesdays than that is worth around $1000. Same consideration for the monthly drawings. You then compare that to having fewer tickets by playing on point multiplier days. Finally, you take the difference and compare that to the difference in freeplay, etc.

    This is standard fare for APers.
    Over on the Rincon facebook page I suggested that with the prize pool and the 2500 players there for the drawings (the place was packed, hard to find a seat at anything) it worked out to $40 per player there. If the estimate I got of 2.5-million entries in play (each entry = one tier credit) then I figured the winner of the $50,000 had probably 12% of the entries in the drawing. See my report from Saturday for details.

    I had about 58,000 entries at the time of the drawing, or about 2.3% of the entries. When I checked in for the drawing (you had to swipe your card and a Total Rewards employee verified it) I got a raised eyebrow at the number of points I had. Later, when a TR staffer told me there were about 2.5-million entries and I mentioned I had about 58,000 he told me I had a lot. Yet, there was still the luck of the draw and I didn't even get one of the $1,000 free plays (which by the way would have made me a very happy camper).

    None of my play in January will count towards February's drawings, but it will count again in December. However, the chances that I will be there New Year's Eve are very slim.

    But let's talk about New Year's Eve. How many entries will there be? I think January was the big month for entries because I think after this past drawing, a lot of "lower level players" will realize there is only a small chance of winning anything, so I think for the rest of the year the number of players who show up for the drawings will be fewer. With the exception of New Year's Eve where I am sure the casino will be packed -- as it is every New Year's Eve. But again, being there does no good unless you have entries from previous play.

    So, I am going to make some assumptions. I am going to assume that January's "entries" of 2.5-million will be the peak, and for the rest of the year the monthly entries that will show up in the December draw (remember only those who show up have their tier credits actually entered) will average 2-million per month. On New Year's Eve I think the entry pool will be about 25-million.

    Let's say I continue to play at my January pace (unlikely, but for the purpose of this I will make the assumption) I will have 696,000 tier points or entries. Let's round it to 700,000 to make it easy. I will have 2.8% of the entries which would give me $28,000 value for the drawing?

    I am estimating that my "cost" of getting that many entries, based on my January play, (and I hit no royals in January), at about $8,000. $8,000 is just one royal at the $2 level which is what I am playing now on the 8/5 Aces and Faces. And I am not including the free play and comp values for my play.

    So Arc, do you still think its an advantage play for me, and an even better advantage play for a high roller (perhaps at baccarat)??

  10. #70
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Win goals protect the wins. I didn't have any. I lost from the get-go. However, my stop loss protected me from going broke. I lost my budgeted limit for the day and then stayed around for the remaining drawings and shmoozed with the managers and Total Rewards crew to get the information I used for my report about the drawings. I also enjoyed a nice dinner with my comps.
    Your memory seems to be fading. If you go back and check you will see I highlighted this as one of the likely results that eventually leads to win/loss goals having no affect on the ER. And, for all you know your loss limit actually prevented you from turning the day into a winner. That's the problem with randomness ... you never know what's going to happen in the future.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Over on the Rincon facebook page I suggested that with the prize pool and the 2500 players there for the drawings (the place was packed, hard to find a seat at anything) it worked out to $40 per player there. If the estimate I got of 2.5-million entries in play (each entry = one tier credit) then I figured the winner of the $50,000 had probably 12% of the entries in the drawing. See my report from Saturday for details.

    I had about 58,000 entries at the time of the drawing, or about 2.3% of the entries. When I checked in for the drawing (you had to swipe your card and a Total Rewards employee verified it) I got a raised eyebrow at the number of points I had. Later, when a TR staffer told me there were about 2.5-million entries and I mentioned I had about 58,000 he told me I had a lot. Yet, there was still the luck of the draw and I didn't even get one of the $1,000 free plays (which by the way would have made me a very happy camper).

    None of my play in January will count towards February's drawings, but it will count again in December. However, the chances that I will be there New Year's Eve are very slim.

    But let's talk about New Year's Eve. How many entries will there be? I think January was the big month for entries because I think after this past drawing, a lot of "lower level players" will realize there is only a small chance of winning anything, so I think for the rest of the year the number of players who show up for the drawings will be fewer. With the exception of New Year's Eve where I am sure the casino will be packed -- as it is every New Year's Eve. But again, being there does no good unless you have entries from previous play.

    So, I am going to make some assumptions. I am going to assume that January's "entries" of 2.5-million will be the peak, and for the rest of the year the monthly entries that will show up in the December draw (remember only those who show up have their tier credits actually entered) will average 2-million per month. On New Year's Eve I think the entry pool will be about 25-million.

    Let's say I continue to play at my January pace (unlikely, but for the purpose of this I will make the assumption) I will have 696,000 tier points or entries. Let's round it to 700,000 to make it easy. I will have 2.8% of the entries which would give me $28,000 value for the drawing?

    I am estimating that my "cost" of getting that many entries, based on my January play, (and I hit no royals in January), at about $8,000. $8,000 is just one royal at the $2 level which is what I am playing now on the 8/5 Aces and Faces. And I am not including the free play and comp values for my play.

    So Arc, do you still think its an advantage play for me, and an even better advantage play for a high roller (perhaps at baccarat)??
    First of all you cannot remove the freeplay and comps you value from a decision that is looking at the overall value of a play. You have to look at everything. Since you didn't elaborate on these essential elements no one can determine if it's an advantage play for you.

    Second, a 2.8% chance of winning a single drawing is enormous. And it gets multiplied on all the smaller drawings based on the number you attend. To determine the value you need to look at all of the drawing you are eligible to win. For example, if you attended 10 drawings during the day for $1000 you have 10*2.8 or a 28% chance of winning at least one. The fact you didn't win is not surprising. On average you will win one every 4 months.

    Next, I wouldn't count on fewer players in the future. New people are finding out about the drawing all the time. Some people will always show up because they gamble regularly whether there's a drawing or not. The big question is whether your chances would increase upward from 2.8% over time. The number of high volume players makes that a difficult question but I would not count on any reduction myself. If it happens and your odds increases, that's gravy.

  11. #71
    Now that you say my chance of winning a $1,000 drawing is once in four months, the contest is even less appealing to me.

    It will certainly be interesting to see how many players show up for the Feb 23rd $100,000 drawing. No big "teams" showed up in January. And I know a lot of "average players" are disappointed by the slim odds of winning anything, and there is even anger that one player can win more than one drawing. But those are the rules.

    A few minutes ago, on Facebook, someone who played with "Nancy" on Saturday night said she was a high stakes baccarat player. I'm trying to find out about the maximum bet at the game. I was told the max bets are usually $100 or $500 but that might not include playing multiple positions and at some casinos they allow multiple bets at each position.

  12. #72
    Remember, that doesn't include the big monthly prize or the year end prize. And, you could get lucky and hit more than 3. Although, you did indicate you would not be there for all the drawings so your real odds are probably less.

    BTW, do you activate entries at a kiosk? If so, you could get together with other players and share player's cards so they could activate your entries for you and you for them. If you got 4 players together you'd only need to go early once every 4 months.

  13. #73
    Even if another player had your card to activate your entries there are still requirements about being there. For the hourly free play drawings, you have until midnight that night to pick them up. And for the big cash drawings there is a ten minute limit before they call another name.

  14. #74
    Bacc is minimum $100 (or $50 on weekdays) and max is $5k. I have probably played with Nancy, then. I love that high limit Baccarat. My favorite game by far.

  15. #75
    Originally Posted by bigfoot66 View Post
    Bacc is minimum $100 (or $50 on weekdays) and max is $5k. I have probably played with Nancy, then. I love that high limit Baccarat. My favorite game by far.
    Yep, just confirmed its $5k but I was told "one seat only." Is that what you have found to be the rule? I ask that because I was told that this past Saturday someone was at a table game playing $15K a hand.

  16. #76
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Even if another player had your card to activate your entries there are still requirements about being there. For the hourly free play drawings, you have until midnight that night to pick them up. And for the big cash drawings there is a ten minute limit before they call another name.
    The point is you wouldn't have to go to the casino early. Just show up late and collect your winnings plus participate in the big drawing. You had stated you could not get away early. This way you can participate in all the drawings which would increase your advantage.

  17. #77
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    The point is you wouldn't have to go to the casino early. Just show up late and collect your winnings plus participate in the big drawing. You had stated you could not get away early. This way you can participate in all the drawings which would increase your advantage.
    You are correct. In fact I recall that some Total Rewards members gave friends spare cards to swipe when they visited other casinos around the country for the Great Escape promo (I think that's what it was called) when you earned comps for visiting different Caesars properties in different states.

    Right now, my chance of winning the million dollars on New Years Eve is about zero because it is very unlikely I will even be there on New Year's Eve. I am more likely to be home at 11-PM after an early dinner at a local restaurant, and at 11-PM watching reruns of the ball drop in Times Square.

  18. #78
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Yep, just confirmed its $5k but I was told "one seat only." Is that what you have found to be the rule? I ask that because I was told that this past Saturday someone was at a table game playing $15K a hand.
    I am sure that if you wanted to play $15k a hand they would let you, but $5k is the normal max, They might open a reserved table for you or something.

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