Craps as a game of skill.

[Alan Mendelson]

I consider craps to be a game of skill. And that will really get some people upset.

What is craps? Well, first of all I should say that I referring to traditional dice craps -- and not card craps that is played in California. Because in traditional dice craps, two dice are given to a player to roll or "shoot" and the result of the player's roll or shot determines the wins and losses of the game.

And that is where craps becomes a game of skill. Because, if the shooter can influence the dice, or can make the dice show a particular number -- or not show a particular number -- the shooter and the other players can win their bets, or not lose their bets depending on how they bet.

Everyone who throws the dice has a particular goal. "Right way" shooters want to hit the numbers they are betting on. "Wrong way" or "darkside" shooters want the dice to show a 7 after a point has been established so they can win their bets.

So players who have the "skill" of getting the numbers they want to show on the dice have a tremendous advantage. This is why I say that craps is a game of skill.

Now, we all have to ask and all have to wonder -- does anyone have this skill? Can anyone pick up two dice and hit the numbers they want or miss the numbers they want? This is not only a question of great debate but it's also a question with a lot of money at stake.

Books and videos and tapes have been marketed and sold telling craps shooters that yes, they can with practice and certain techniques hit the numbers they want or avoid the numbers they don't want.

I have purchased some of these books, and I have paid to attend certain lectures and classes, and I believe that to a certain extent the "skill" is possible. However, and this is a very big however, I cannot say that I have ever witnessed in person anyone with an ability to influence or control dice that goes beyond random chance.

Theoretically what the dice controllers and influencers preach makes perfect sense. I think a robot could do it. I think a robot tossing two dice with a controlled throw at a certain speed and trajectory with the dice aimed at a certain spot on the table and with a measured toss to reach a certain point on the back wall, could duplicate the same desired numbers on the dice over and over again. It's really simple physics that for every action there is a reaction. And if you can exactly duplicate the throw of two dice you should -- barring earthquakes, gusts of wind, players' hands hitting the dice -- get the same result over and over again.

But humans do not have the ability to control two small cubes the same way over and over again.

Even professional athletes who hit golf balls, sink three-pointers on basketball courts, deliver fast ball strikes and curve balls, and hit targets with arrows cannot at will hit the same spot repeatedly or repeat the same shot -- the exact same shot or pitch -- repeatedly.

I wouldn't say that dice influencing or dice control is not possible. I do say that so far I have never seen anyone do it with a high enough repeat factor to say they could influence or control the dice.

So the bottom line is that craps is a game of skill, but I just don't know of any human with the skill to be a consistent winner at it.

[regnis]

My position on dice influence has been stated before, but I do feel that the strategy and money management required to win in craps is also a skill. You must take advantage of the hot roll when it comes because they are too few and far between. I have seen too many people watch a big hand because they simply lacked guts. Wrong game for the faint of heart.

[Alan Mendelson]

You must take advantage of the hot roll when it comes

You are absolutely correct! But how do you know when a hot roll is coming? Is it anything like knowing when a video poker machine is in a hot cycle? (OMG, Ooops. LOL)

[regnis]

I get a telegram from Rob-lol

[JamieV]

On my most recent trip to Flamingo I hit a 5 point fire at Margaritaville. Alan, I can send you the photo if you'd like? I do consider myself a "DI" and have taken classes with Heavy and Dice Coach. I do practice often and consider my shot "textbook" to what the proponents are attempting to teach. But, just like anyone else, I have long hands and short hands. I win some trips and I lose some trips. This year I am going to write down every session I have on the craps table and see if I am a loser or winner.

Regarding the all elusive "Hot Roll"- How do we quantify it? How do we attempt to find it? All very good questions and I have some ways in which to identify a Hot Roll but I have never really done any statistical analysis to confirm these hunches. Just like most gamblers, I play and hope a good roll comes along. I have "hunches" and I wish I would listen to them more often. There's nothing worse in craps when you hear that little voice say. "I should probably come down" Next toss 7-Out! "Damnit!_

[Alan Mendelson]

By all means send your photo to alan(at)alanbestbuys.com or you can upload to our forum server from your computer by clicking on "go advanced" and following the link for "manage attachments." Please put it in the thread for "Big Casino Wins and Jackpots."

And say hello to Heavy for me. We go waaaaay back... to the beginning of the DI fever.

[regnis]

I guess the following advertisement wasn't true:

"THE FINAL FLING!!

October 15, 16 and 17th, 2010!

After ten years in the Dice Control Seminar business, Heavy has announced The Final Fling - his sayonara seminar in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada. It all happens October 15, 16, and 17 as some of the world's top dice influencers get together for an exciting weekend of craps education, fellowship, and live casino sessions. "

Are these the original guys that Scoblete and the Dominator split off from??

[Alan Mendelson]

When I first met Heavy back in the 1990s he was part of Jerry Patterson's group which included Sharpshooter, the author of the "textbook" on dice influencing and dice control. In fact, in 2006 one of the articles from my website showed up on the Dice Coach website: http://www.dicecoach.com/articlearch.asp?ID=46 And I think others showed up even years before that one.

At one of the early seminars Scoblete was rumored to be bringing along "The Captain," but that didn't happen. If you asked me today who was working with who I couldn't tell you.

Recently Heavy has been posting on wizardofvegas. We haven't spoken in years but there was a time when there was an Internet discussion group that we were all on every day about craps and that forum was taken down about five or more years ago.

[arcimede$]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in the design of craps table. A mechanism that rotated a different landing area with changes to the hardness would do the trick. The dealer could change the surface between every toss of the dice. And, if they did it right the selection of the surface would be controlled randomly with a simple push of a button.

[Alan Mendelson]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in the design of craps table. A mechanism that rotated a different landing area with changes to the hardness would do the trick. The dealer could change the surface between every toss of the dice. And, if they did it right the selection of the surface would be controlled randomly with a simple push of a button.

Wow, slot machine craps! Come to think of it, they have a type of slot machine craps now with a giant bubble with two giant dice that are jumbled by the machine and you place your bets on a touch screen. But I won't play it.

[arcimede$]

No, the table would look exactly the same. The change would occur below the surface where the dice land.

[Alan Mendelson]

Yes, I understand the concept, Arc. The table surface could be controlled by a RNG in fact you could even add motion to the table surface for ripples and waves in the "dice landing area" or have little "pins" that pop up through the felt. It would turn a dice table into an obstacle course. The first high tech dice game. I think you should copyright the idea and submit it to some company such as IGT or ShuffleMaster. ShuffleMaster (stock symbol SHFL) is the company that bought the Fire Bet and is now expanding from just being a card shuffling company to all sorts of casino and online games.

[Alan Mendelson]

I would like to return to this thread. I keep saying to myself that no other casino game relies solely on the player to reach a decision. Only craps relies on the decision coming from the player who shoots the dice.

I am not saying that any dice shooter has the skill to control the dice, but if they did have the skill to control dice there is nothing that the casino could do to inhibit that skill except to block that player from shooting.

[Diceroller]

You are correct. Alan. Only in craps does the casino hand the control of the outcome of the game to the player. That is what makes the game of craps so exciting. Even if the shooter cannot control the dice, he/she can feel like they do. The casino can hassle the shooter by immediately saying in a loud voice; "hit the back wall with both dice each and every time" or "hit the back wall harder," etc. but their only real defense at this time is telling then they can't shoot. This is similar to handling a card counter in blackjack, though there are more things they can do in blackjack such as shuffling up, shallow cut cards, flat betting only.
Give me the excitement of craps any day!

[phillyfranko]

Love craps..I recently tried a new method where I stand to the right of the stickman and use my left hand to softly throw the dice,( I am right handed) barely hitting the back wall...I have done very well even though I set the dice...it is pretty much a random throw...and I can control the dice...just not for long periods of time.

[Alan Mendelson]

It's been a couple of years since there's been any activity on this thread.
I still think craps is a game of skill -- whether or not any player has any skill to impact the game.
What other game in a casino does the fate of the outcome rest entirely in the movements of a player?
If casinos offered wagering on darts or shooting hoops then craps would not be the one and only skill game.

[Robsingerwho]

It has to be a game of skill. how else could someone throw 18 yos in a row?

[Alan Mendelson]

I haven't played golf since college. It's because I have no skill playing golf. But I frequently play mini-golf. Several times when playing mini-golf I've gotten a hole-in-one. It wasn't because I had skill -- it was because I got lucky. But that doesn't mean golf isn't a game of skill, does it?

The shooter who threw 18 yo's in a row didn't exhibit anything but random throws with dice bouncing all over the layout. He got lucky.

But that doesn't mean craps isn't a game of skill for someone who could influence the dice.

[FABismonte]

A couple of years ago at the Peppermill at Reno, I was chastised by the box man at a craps game for tossing the dice softly to the other end of the table. He yelled: "Throw those dice harder, it is a game of luck not skill!" In that circumstance, I had already hit two points. My hunch is that if I had just doing "Point-Seven-Out", he would not have yelled at me.

FAB

[dicesetter]

Game of skill


When we talk about this type of stuff. we start to ruffle more than just a few feathers...... certainly true, but the real question is
why.

People in the various sites on craps all have their central positions, and when you go against that, whether that is the GTC
site, Wizard site, or any of the other sites, your going to be on thin ice and catch hell.

Why I wonder, since it should be clear enough to any level headed player that there is no one single answer to beating a
craps table, there cant be since all tables and dice are different. So there cant be one single way to throw, or sets to use,
and therefore there cant be one single way to bet. All systems or styles or what ever you think you can use to get an edge
has to be able to be tweaked a tad.

I am baffled by this circle the wagon mentality.

I do agree 100% with Alan that craps is a game of skill. But what kind.

I have found and said on other sites there is no question you can develop a toss that is repeatable to some
extent. Then you can change sets and get a different arrangement of outcomes. So If you can change outcomes, why
does it not follow you can beat a casino anytime you want.

The answer is for 2 reasons, changes sets and getting different main number sets does not remove your exposure
to the 7. It is always there. The GTC shot for instance with the hardway set and an on axis finish brings you closer
to a 7 on every roll than a random player would be, because that finish has 4 ways to make a 7. Now an off
axis set and finish, say a 3v exposes your finish to only 2 ways to make a 7.

So here is where the skill comes in, you have to be able to throw consistently enough to where you can keep your
dice in a finishing position or set of 2v 3v or crossed 6's, not easy to do.

Alan has said a number of times he saw what he thought were dice setters because they had a repeatable roll
and got repeatable result.... exactly correct, most dice setters see that themselves, some days on some tables
you have better results with different sets than others, because for what ever reason, at that time your toss
was better. All things that require a release, archery, bowling, pitching etc, craps, show different results from
day to day because we are different or the setting was different... this is not rocket science, it should be
expected. Then couple that with the fact that the craps toss is 10 times harder than any of the rest, and you
would expect variance.

Part of the skill in craps is to have more than one type of shot, because some shots don't work well on longer
or bouncy tables. You have to pay attention to land position on tables, that can affect your results, then their
are the dice, which can and do vary.

I have talked about charting a table, by that I don't mean in a way that the results you see tonight can be
used tomorrow. I mean is there something you see at this session which can be exploited.

Part of the skill is how to bet the money you bring to the table.

As I have said, I don't believe in dice control... the type that you can take with you from table to
table, day to day.... and fill your pockets with their money..... I view that as sheep dip.......

But I know you can be skilled enough in these areas to bend the HA and when your on, it will dam
well feel like your in control, and when your off, you still have a better than average chance.

To me that is skill

dicesetter