Craps as a game of skill.

[redietz]

Wow, slot machine craps! Come to think of it, they have a type of slot machine craps now with a giant bubble with two giant dice that are jumbled by the machine and you place your bets on a touch screen. But I won't play it.

I was playing video poker at Ellis Island and unfortunately one of those damn robot dice games was right next to me. The female voice on the thing made me want to grab a crowbar and smash it into a thousand pieces. It was the most annoying, too loud, repetitive blare. I could not stand it.

[Alan Mendelson]

dicesetter you make a lot of good points.

I don't see the point in charting a table, but I do see a reason to chart your own results. If you have a particular set and a particular throw, then your results will vary table by table -- and for the reasons you said including the bounce and the length. So yes, before you start betting heavily even on your own throw you should see what numbers your own throw are producing.

I think the other key thing you mentioned is having the skill of betting. The key to winning at craps is to bet the numbers that the dice are showing. If you are betting 6 and 8 but your dice are showing 4, 5, 9, and 10 you won't win. For that reason you have to see how your rolls are going, what numbers are showing, and then hope that the trend continues.

I've never had a talent or a skill for hitting numbers on command or even knowing which numbers I will hit. I simply want to avoid rolling 7s. If I can avoid the 7s eventually the numbers where I have bets placed will be hit. This is why I love the Small, Tall, All bets -- I have hit the All several times and I have hit the Small or Tall on their own multiple times. I use the Cross-6s set which favors the outside numbers which is critical for hitting the Small, Tall, All.

The most important thing is this: yes, craps is a game of skill because you, the shooter, have the ability to win because you throw the dice. There is no RNG. There is no dealer shuffling cards. The fate of your money is in your own hand or fingers. To deny that it is a game of skill is foolish. And again, that doesn't mean anyone has the skill needed. But it is a game of skill.

Because it is a game of skill why not try to learn the skill? The critics of Dice Influencing won't even concede that it's okay to TRY it. Why are they so closed-minded? They will advocate playing BlackJack where you can have some help from the "count" and card counting -- but whether or not you get that count depends on the shuffle. In craps there is no shuffle. It's all up to you and you can tell if your set and toss is working or not.

[jbjb]

The dice ARE the RNG.

[Alan Mendelson]

The dice ARE the RNG.

One of the most ridiculous things Ive ever read. Think about it, and then correct your statement.

[Rob.Singer]

Wait a minute Alan. What he means is how he cruises the casinos with a bagfull of 400 die. He then takes them over to the cashier and after counting them out she hands him 40 EXTRA die, making it 440 after dragging him in for this oh-so-special promotion. It was truly an advantage play, and he now has 40 new die that when two are selected for the roll, he can say they participated in a "Really Neat Game".

This is what he meant. And he considers it a 10% advantage.

[jbjb]

One of the most ridiculous things Ive ever read.

And exactly why you are and always will be a habitual casino loser.

[RS__]

This thread is hilarious.

[jbjb]

This thread is hilarious.

Well...this whole site has to be a joke. Right? More nonsense here than it's possible for 18 yo's!

[Alan Mendelson]

Over the years I've been part of many online discussion groups and the critics of dice influencing have always demanded proof. There probably isn't proof and there probably never will be. There can be statistics but the critics will always discount "good statistics" as being luck.

In baseball, a batter who gets on base fewer than one-third of the time but is a .300 hitter is a great hitter. How many great rolls does a Dice Influencer need in craps to be a dice influencer?

Tiger Woods doesn't win every tournament (Woods won 25.2% of his starts on the PGA Tour). Dan Marino didn't complete every pass (lifetime completion 59.4%). Pete Rose didn't win every bet (oops, wrong thread).

The point is simply this: the casino gives the dice to a player to throw. If the player can throw the dice to hit the numbers he is betting on he will win. That makes craps a game of skill because the shooter will determine the outcome.

Craps tables are fixed objects. They don't have moving pyramids or bouncing layouts that can alter the dice's path once they are thrown. So it all comes down to the shooter's ability to hit the right numbers with the dice.

Are the records of Tiger Woods and Dan Marino good enough for a casino craps dice influencer?

[a2a3dseddie]

Sure, a golfer could drive a ball off the tee 300 yards, 301 yards, 299 yards or 300.5 yards. A baseball player could hit a 475ft, 480ft or a 500ft home run. A quarterback could have the skill to throw a football right on the receiver's number or just within reach of his outstretched arms. They would all still be successful because what they are doing does not require the same level of precision as a shooter trying to hit his numbers playing craps. Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sure, a golfer could drive a ball off the tee 300 yards, 301 yards, 299 yards or 300.5 yards. A baseball player could hit a 475ft, 480ft or a 500ft home run. A quarterback could have the skill to throw a football right on the receiver's number or just within reach of his outstretched arms. They would all still be successful because what they are doing does not require the same level of precision as a shooter trying to hit his numbers playing craps. Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

And this begs the question how do you define or rate that skill?

[slingshot]

I was playing video poker at Ellis Island and unfortunately one of those damn robot dice games was right next to me. The female voice on the thing made me want to grab a crowbar and smash it into a thousand pieces. It was the most annoying, too loud, repetitive blare. I could not stand it.

Hilarious. Sit by one and when the voice said, "You can be the shooter!"' I wanted to shoot-her!

[Alan Mendelson]

Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

[a2a3dseddie]

This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

Well, craps is gambling, so the only metric that makes sense is if the shooter is able to make a long term profit "influencing the dice". That might mean rolling a seven more than 1 one 6, less than 1 in 6 or rolling the numbers he has bet on.

Since the casino is able to offer the game and make money operating on what... a 1.41% edge?... I'd say if you were able to influence the dice, negate that 1.41% edge and get anywhere into positive EV territory I'd consider that successful. Factor in the comps and you'd be nicely ahead.

[Alan Mendelson]

the only metric that makes sense is if the shooter is able to make a long term profit "influencing the dice".

I can't influence the dice-- but I try.

But frankly, to say that if someone only needs a long-term profit I don't think properly defines a dice influencer. Random shooters, chicken feeders, can win at craps and can have long-term profits.

[RS__]

This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

It depends on how far away their SRR is from expectation. If their SRR is 10, it shouldn't take many rolls before you can say "there's a 1% chance this is a freak occurrence, and a 99% chance he's actually influencing the dice". Whereas, if his SRR is 6.1, then it's going to take many many rolls before the same type of conclusion can be drawn.

[Alan Mendelson]

It depends on how far away their SRR is from expectation. If their SRR is 10, it shouldn't take many rolls before you can say "there's a 1% chance this is a freak occurrence, and a 99% chance he's actually influencing the dice". Whereas, if his SRR is 6.1, then it's going to take many many rolls before the same type of conclusion can be drawn.

How many tests of the SRR must there be? I hit the ALL at Bellagio four times. Does that make me a DI?

One time at Caesars I rolled a 6 on the come out. I rolled for the next 25 minutes without hitting the point and made several dozen numbers... does that make me a DI?

I don't think I'm a DI even though on occasion I've shown a very high SRR.

[RS__]

How many tests of the SRR must there be? I hit the ALL at Bellagio four times. Does that make me a DI?

One time at Caesars I rolled a 6 on the come out. I rolled for the next 25 minutes without hitting the point and made several dozen numbers... does that make me a DI?

I don't think I'm a DI even though on occasion I've shown a very high SRR.

Depends how many times you got the dice (at the B). 50 or 100 or 200 rolls is not sufficient unless your results are way out of the ordinary. And cherry-picking very small samples of data isn't going to "make you a DI".

[jbjb]

And I'm certain that many times, your very first roll was a 7 as well bringing that SRR ratio back to normal.

[Alan Mendelson]

And I'm certain that many times, your very first roll was a 7 as well bringing that SRR ratio back to normal.

Sure you can roll a 7 on the first roll... and on the first three rolls. If you are a passline bettor and you are not concerned about losses on the Small, Tall, All bets you welcome those 7s. And if your passline bet amount is more than your STA bets, then you still make a small profit. For example: $25 pass, $5 on the Small, $5 on the Tall, $5 on the All... you still come out ahead $10.

What's more important in craps is not your SRR, but if you are hitting the numbers that you have money on. A shooter with a great SRR but pets only 6, 8 but rolls only outside numbers is going to lose.