Craps as a game of skill.

[FABismonte]

A couple of years ago at the Peppermill at Reno, I was chastised by the box man at a craps game for tossing the dice softly to the other end of the table. He yelled: "Throw those dice harder, it is a game of luck not skill!" In that circumstance, I had already hit two points. My hunch is that if I had just doing "Point-Seven-Out", he would not have yelled at me.

FAB

[dicesetter]

Game of skill


When we talk about this type of stuff. we start to ruffle more than just a few feathers...... certainly true, but the real question is
why.

People in the various sites on craps all have their central positions, and when you go against that, whether that is the GTC
site, Wizard site, or any of the other sites, your going to be on thin ice and catch hell.

Why I wonder, since it should be clear enough to any level headed player that there is no one single answer to beating a
craps table, there cant be since all tables and dice are different. So there cant be one single way to throw, or sets to use,
and therefore there cant be one single way to bet. All systems or styles or what ever you think you can use to get an edge
has to be able to be tweaked a tad.

I am baffled by this circle the wagon mentality.

I do agree 100% with Alan that craps is a game of skill. But what kind.

I have found and said on other sites there is no question you can develop a toss that is repeatable to some
extent. Then you can change sets and get a different arrangement of outcomes. So If you can change outcomes, why
does it not follow you can beat a casino anytime you want.

The answer is for 2 reasons, changes sets and getting different main number sets does not remove your exposure
to the 7. It is always there. The GTC shot for instance with the hardway set and an on axis finish brings you closer
to a 7 on every roll than a random player would be, because that finish has 4 ways to make a 7. Now an off
axis set and finish, say a 3v exposes your finish to only 2 ways to make a 7.

So here is where the skill comes in, you have to be able to throw consistently enough to where you can keep your
dice in a finishing position or set of 2v 3v or crossed 6's, not easy to do.

Alan has said a number of times he saw what he thought were dice setters because they had a repeatable roll
and got repeatable result.... exactly correct, most dice setters see that themselves, some days on some tables
you have better results with different sets than others, because for what ever reason, at that time your toss
was better. All things that require a release, archery, bowling, pitching etc, craps, show different results from
day to day because we are different or the setting was different... this is not rocket science, it should be
expected. Then couple that with the fact that the craps toss is 10 times harder than any of the rest, and you
would expect variance.

Part of the skill in craps is to have more than one type of shot, because some shots don't work well on longer
or bouncy tables. You have to pay attention to land position on tables, that can affect your results, then their
are the dice, which can and do vary.

I have talked about charting a table, by that I don't mean in a way that the results you see tonight can be
used tomorrow. I mean is there something you see at this session which can be exploited.

Part of the skill is how to bet the money you bring to the table.

As I have said, I don't believe in dice control... the type that you can take with you from table to
table, day to day.... and fill your pockets with their money..... I view that as sheep dip.......

But I know you can be skilled enough in these areas to bend the HA and when your on, it will dam
well feel like your in control, and when your off, you still have a better than average chance.

To me that is skill

dicesetter

[Alan Mendelson]

dicesetter you make a lot of good points.

I don't see the point in charting a table, but I do see a reason to chart your own results. If you have a particular set and a particular throw, then your results will vary table by table -- and for the reasons you said including the bounce and the length. So yes, before you start betting heavily even on your own throw you should see what numbers your own throw are producing.

I think the other key thing you mentioned is having the skill of betting. The key to winning at craps is to bet the numbers that the dice are showing. If you are betting 6 and 8 but your dice are showing 4, 5, 9, and 10 you won't win. For that reason you have to see how your rolls are going, what numbers are showing, and then hope that the trend continues.

I've never had a talent or a skill for hitting numbers on command or even knowing which numbers I will hit. I simply want to avoid rolling 7s. If I can avoid the 7s eventually the numbers where I have bets placed will be hit. This is why I love the Small, Tall, All bets -- I have hit the All several times and I have hit the Small or Tall on their own multiple times. I use the Cross-6s set which favors the outside numbers which is critical for hitting the Small, Tall, All.

The most important thing is this: yes, craps is a game of skill because you, the shooter, have the ability to win because you throw the dice. There is no RNG. There is no dealer shuffling cards. The fate of your money is in your own hand or fingers. To deny that it is a game of skill is foolish. And again, that doesn't mean anyone has the skill needed. But it is a game of skill.

Because it is a game of skill why not try to learn the skill? The critics of Dice Influencing won't even concede that it's okay to TRY it. Why are they so closed-minded? They will advocate playing BlackJack where you can have some help from the "count" and card counting -- but whether or not you get that count depends on the shuffle. In craps there is no shuffle. It's all up to you and you can tell if your set and toss is working or not.

[jbjb]

The dice ARE the RNG.

[Alan Mendelson]

The dice ARE the RNG.

One of the most ridiculous things Ive ever read. Think about it, and then correct your statement.

[jbjb]

One of the most ridiculous things Ive ever read.

And exactly why you are and always will be a habitual casino loser.

[Rob.Singer]

Wait a minute Alan. What he means is how he cruises the casinos with a bagfull of 400 die. He then takes them over to the cashier and after counting them out she hands him 40 EXTRA die, making it 440 after dragging him in for this oh-so-special promotion. It was truly an advantage play, and he now has 40 new die that when two are selected for the roll, he can say they participated in a "Really Neat Game".

This is what he meant. And he considers it a 10% advantage.

[RS__]

This thread is hilarious.

[jbjb]

This thread is hilarious.

Well...this whole site has to be a joke. Right? More nonsense here than it's possible for 18 yo's!

[Alan Mendelson]

Over the years I've been part of many online discussion groups and the critics of dice influencing have always demanded proof. There probably isn't proof and there probably never will be. There can be statistics but the critics will always discount "good statistics" as being luck.

In baseball, a batter who gets on base fewer than one-third of the time but is a .300 hitter is a great hitter. How many great rolls does a Dice Influencer need in craps to be a dice influencer?

Tiger Woods doesn't win every tournament (Woods won 25.2% of his starts on the PGA Tour). Dan Marino didn't complete every pass (lifetime completion 59.4%). Pete Rose didn't win every bet (oops, wrong thread).

The point is simply this: the casino gives the dice to a player to throw. If the player can throw the dice to hit the numbers he is betting on he will win. That makes craps a game of skill because the shooter will determine the outcome.

Craps tables are fixed objects. They don't have moving pyramids or bouncing layouts that can alter the dice's path once they are thrown. So it all comes down to the shooter's ability to hit the right numbers with the dice.

Are the records of Tiger Woods and Dan Marino good enough for a casino craps dice influencer?

[a2a3dseddie]

Sure, a golfer could drive a ball off the tee 300 yards, 301 yards, 299 yards or 300.5 yards. A baseball player could hit a 475ft, 480ft or a 500ft home run. A quarterback could have the skill to throw a football right on the receiver's number or just within reach of his outstretched arms. They would all still be successful because what they are doing does not require the same level of precision as a shooter trying to hit his numbers playing craps. Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sure, a golfer could drive a ball off the tee 300 yards, 301 yards, 299 yards or 300.5 yards. A baseball player could hit a 475ft, 480ft or a 500ft home run. A quarterback could have the skill to throw a football right on the receiver's number or just within reach of his outstretched arms. They would all still be successful because what they are doing does not require the same level of precision as a shooter trying to hit his numbers playing craps. Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

And this begs the question how do you define or rate that skill?

[Alan Mendelson]

Not only does he have to hit his number, he has to avoid rolling the seven as well.

This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

[a2a3dseddie]

This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

Well, craps is gambling, so the only metric that makes sense is if the shooter is able to make a long term profit "influencing the dice". That might mean rolling a seven more than 1 one 6, less than 1 in 6 or rolling the numbers he has bet on.

Since the casino is able to offer the game and make money operating on what... a 1.41% edge?... I'd say if you were able to influence the dice, negate that 1.41% edge and get anywhere into positive EV territory I'd consider that successful. Factor in the comps and you'd be nicely ahead.

[RS__]

This is the key question: what metric do you use to accept that someone is influencing the dice? How many times does he have to roll the dice without a 7? How many passes does he have to make? How many numbers does he have to roll if he isn't making passes?

How do you judge whether someone is influencing the dice or not?

In baseball, for example, there are great hitters for hitting home runs... and there are great hitters for just getting on base.

It depends on how far away their SRR is from expectation. If their SRR is 10, it shouldn't take many rolls before you can say "there's a 1% chance this is a freak occurrence, and a 99% chance he's actually influencing the dice". Whereas, if his SRR is 6.1, then it's going to take many many rolls before the same type of conclusion can be drawn.

[Alan Mendelson]

It depends on how far away their SRR is from expectation. If their SRR is 10, it shouldn't take many rolls before you can say "there's a 1% chance this is a freak occurrence, and a 99% chance he's actually influencing the dice". Whereas, if his SRR is 6.1, then it's going to take many many rolls before the same type of conclusion can be drawn.

How many tests of the SRR must there be? I hit the ALL at Bellagio four times. Does that make me a DI?

One time at Caesars I rolled a 6 on the come out. I rolled for the next 25 minutes without hitting the point and made several dozen numbers... does that make me a DI?

I don't think I'm a DI even though on occasion I've shown a very high SRR.

[Alan Mendelson]

the only metric that makes sense is if the shooter is able to make a long term profit "influencing the dice".

I can't influence the dice-- but I try.

But frankly, to say that if someone only needs a long-term profit I don't think properly defines a dice influencer. Random shooters, chicken feeders, can win at craps and can have long-term profits.

[jbjb]

And I'm certain that many times, your very first roll was a 7 as well bringing that SRR ratio back to normal.

[Alan Mendelson]

And I'm certain that many times, your very first roll was a 7 as well bringing that SRR ratio back to normal.

Sure you can roll a 7 on the first roll... and on the first three rolls. If you are a passline bettor and you are not concerned about losses on the Small, Tall, All bets you welcome those 7s. And if your passline bet amount is more than your STA bets, then you still make a small profit. For example: $25 pass, $5 on the Small, $5 on the Tall, $5 on the All... you still come out ahead $10.

What's more important in craps is not your SRR, but if you are hitting the numbers that you have money on. A shooter with a great SRR but pets only 6, 8 but rolls only outside numbers is going to lose.