John Grochowski sums it up nicely about video poker and craps

[arcimede$]

So true-the RNG doesn't know if I have been winning or losing and can't decide it's time to "even things out". The RNG doesn't adjust up or down to make my results consistent with the expected return. LUCK!!!! That's the key.

Luck is the key in small number of samples. In the case of VP each hand is a sample. However, as the number of samples increases the overall result starts to approach the mean. In the case of VP the mean is the ER of your play (strategy used on game played).

[arcimede$]

I am sure that you can find a video poker math book somewhere that says the RNG is keeping track and knows that it owes you some royals -- and they will come to you when you least expect them. But they are "expected" because the math says so.

Won't find it in a math book. That sounds like something Singer would say.

[Alan Mendelson]

Won't find it in a math book. That sounds like something Singer would say.

Nah... it's something cloaked in satire.

The disagreement here is about the theoretical long term vs the here and now. It would be nice to believe in the long term but each of us plays one hand at time and so we need good luck on each and every hand.

I think everyone understands and accepts long term results which is why we look at and choose the best paytables but it is luck and not the paytable which determines what happens on the next play and the one after that and the one after that....

[arcimede$]

Nah... it's something cloaked in satire.

The disagreement here is about the theoretical long term vs the here and now. It would be nice to believe in the long term but each of us plays one hand at time and so we need good luck on each and every hand.

I think everyone understands and accepts long term results which is why we look at and choose the best paytables but it is luck and not the paytable which determines what happens on the next play and the one after that and the one after that....

True, and the luck you get varies. You don't have bad luck on every hand and you don't have good luck on every hand. The problem is always the same. There is no way to control luck. The only thing you can control is the games you play, the strategy you use and the amount you play.

That's why discussions about luck are worthless. It is also why Singer continually focuses on luck. He tries to convince people that luck can work for them. That's an obvious lie which makes him an obvious phony.

[regnis]

Here is my analogy. If I am flipping a coin non stop for several hours, and heads has come up way more than tails, I am going to start betting tails, even tho each flip is independent and a 50-50 prop. The coin doesn't know the odds but I do believe it will somewhat even out after a while.But that is 1 coin and 1 player---VP is thousands of machines and players and, if you don't believe there are cycles, then all are trying to get lucky by spinning the right machine at the right time, and no amount of play will change that.

In VP, I have no expectation that anything will even out because I'm not there long enough for it to do so. In fact, I am hoping to hit and run before it can even out. I am just a small blip on the VP trail, and all I can do is hope to get lucky in my timing of spinning the reel.

[arcimede$]

Here is my analogy. If I am flipping a coin non stop for several hours, and heads has come up way more than tails, I am going to start betting tails, even tho each flip is independent and a 50-50 prop. The coin doesn't know the odds but I do believe it will somewhat even out after a while.But that is 1 coin and 1 player---VP is thousands of machines and players and, if you don't believe there are cycles, then all are trying to get lucky by spinning the right machine at the right time, and no amount of play will change that.

Actually, the more you play the closer you will get to the mean. So, the amount you play does have an effect. That is a mathematical fact. If you want to deny math that is fine, just don't plan on anyone with a brain believing you.

In VP, I have no expectation that anything will even out because I'm not there long enough for it to do so. In fact, I am hoping to hit and run before it can even out. I am just a small blip on the VP trail, and all I can do is hope to get lucky in my timing of spinning the reel.

Pure nonsense. You can do much more. You can play the best games, you can use the best strategy, you can play within your bankroll ... that you would claim relying on "luck" is all you can do is just plain silly.

It's like saying the only way to avoid a traffic accident is to be lucky, hence you might as well ignore all red lights.

[regnis]

[QUOTE=arcimede$;10002

Pure nonsense. You can do much more. You can play the best games, you can use the best strategy, you can play within your bankroll ... that you would claim relying on "luck" is all you can do is just plain silly.

It's like saying the only way to avoid a traffic accident is to be lucky, hence you might as well ignore all red lights.[/QUOTE]

Best strategy, best games, and playing within your bankroll are givens here--these are not novices participating in this discussion on this website. But playing more or less does not increase your luck. It is all timing and luck--math doesn't know or keep track of my results either.

[regnis]

And I'm still owed dozens of royal flushes. How come the math fairy hasn't granted me these missing royals.

[regnis]

It's like saying the only way to avoid a traffic accident is to be lucky, hence you might as well ignore all red lights.

I was sitting at a stop sign 2 blocks from my home and a car lost control and that car and another on-coming car crashed right into me at 50 MPH right on my driver side door.

I was lucky that I was not wearing my seat belt, and that the air bag didn't go off, and the car did not have power locks and I was able to crawl out the back door and pass out right before the car exploded. At 6:42 a few days later they were going to call me dead and I woke up. THAT'S LUCK!!! I get up every day at 6:42 since then.

[Rob.Singer]

And I'm still owed dozens of royal flushes. How come the math fairy hasn't granted me these missing royals.

Because the AP's are getting them all...or at least that's what we're led to believe, because they are unable to post any jackpot pictures and instead, think that they're pulling the wool over everyone's eyes by running cash thru TITO machines and taking pictures of all the beautiful little tickets!

[Vegas Vic]

Luck is the key in small number of samples. In the case of VP each hand is a sample. However, as the number of samples increases the overall result starts to approach the mean. In the case of VP the mean is the ER of your play (strategy used on game played).

Luck remains a key factor in each and every hand and luck does not diminish. Any single spin in Las Vegas has the same luck factor as any single spin in Reno, Tunica, or your local casino in the Midwest. Therefore, if I were to take one spin and one spin only in 150 casinos around the U.S., the luck I might receive is identical. Same goes for taking 150 spins on the same machine during one session in any given casino. 150 hands is 150 hands... and 150 hands in each of 150 casinos will still be afforded the same opportunity to get lucky.

If you were truly a math guy and believed 100% in the ER, you would never, ever acknowledge "luck" as a part of VP. For you, the math would dictate and control everything. Now that you have stated that "luck is a key in small number of samples", it remains a key in any number of samples. The RNG doesn't know small from large, casino location from casino location, or the gaming habits or skills of any player....and neither does LUCK.

[arcimede$]

I used the term luck because that is what most folks here have been using. It is an "interpretation" of results. The reality is all hands have an equal probability of showing up. What is considered lucky in DDB is not necessarily lucky in a deuces game. Therefore, luck is not a definable entity. It is simply an after the fact interpretation of one's results. Hitting quad aces in deuces would not be "good luck" Hitting a wild royal in DDB would not be "good luck". Hence, luck itself is not correlated to specific hands.

Now, that doesn't mean we can't talk about interpretations. That is what I did. I discussed that "good luck" (winning money) and "bad luck" (losing money) will both occur within a mathematical structure. It really doesn't matter what constituted the good/bad luck. Luck is an abstract concept. The math still applies even when you abstract out the specific hands.