Losing $1 billion playing VP?

[Alan Mendelson]

I was watching KCAL9, the CBS owned station here in Los Angeles (and where I worked for 16 years) and on tonight's Prime 9 News they carried a CBS Network report with an interview with the ex-Mayor and again repeated how she lost one billion dollars... but only had $50 million to begin with.

It is disappointing that even CBS News -- the standard bearer for the highest journalistic standards -- would make this same mistake even after several media outlets have now reported that she didn't lose a billion dollars.

I personally got a chuckle out of watching this tonight, because one of the anchors introducing the story is herself no stranger to gambling. I won't say more than that.

But I would like to add this: I think the ex-Mayor and her lawyer love the publicity that she lost "one billion dollars" because they might think it will gain her some sympathy. They might be hoping that people are thinking "gee she lost a billion dollars and that's enough punishment, she shouldn't be prosecuted for taking the charity's money."

[arcimede$]

Nope, that lie doesn't come close to mitigating THE BOTTOM LINE you have to live with, as punishment for what you've caused.

I tingle....

I can imagine you're doing a lot of tingling these days. Tingling in embarrassment. I've demonstrated you're lies about me are indeed lies and you've proven beyond any doubt you are a pathological liar. Chuckle, chuckle.

[Rob.Singer]

I was watching KCAL9, the CBS owned station here in Los Angeles (and where I worked for 16 years) and on tonight's Prime 9 News they carried a CBS Network report with an interview with the ex-Mayor and again repeated how she lost one billion dollars... but only had $50 million to begin with.

It is disappointing that even CBS News -- the standard bearer for the highest journalistic standards -- would make this same mistake even after several media outlets have now reported that she didn't lose a billion dollars.

I personally got a chuckle out of watching this tonight, because one of the anchors introducing the story is herself no stranger to gambling. I won't say more than that.

But I would like to add this: I think the ex-Mayor and her lawyer love the publicity that she lost "one billion dollars" because they might think it will gain her some sympathy. They might be hoping that people are thinking "gee she lost a billion dollars and that's enough punishment, she shouldn't be prosecuted for taking the charity's money."

You have to put this overall story in context. Sure it's a big deal to us gamblers, and we know more than the reporters and interviewers about what she did and how she did it. And a story about a big city ex-mayor and millions and even a billion dollars would have meant a lot more ten years ago. But in these days where hundreds of billions of dollars are going from the Gov't. into bad energy investments, Wall Street bailouts, where trillions instead of billions are what our debt is now referred to, and where even presidential campaign expenditures make what this lady did seem almost trivial, these reporters who don't seem to comprehend gambling lingo couldn't really care less about getting it right. In fact, I'll bet that even if any one of us sat with one and explained the entire process just prior to them going on air with the story, they'd STILL get it wrong.

Arci, have your coffee before you post. You wouldn't sound like you tossed and turned all night

[regnis]

we have another Illinois politician just indicted for using his campaign funds to support his gambling habit. I am not surprised because I used to sit next to him playing the same game---a video poker game with a bonus wheel up above. If you got a quad you also got to spin the wheel. They no longer have them here.


But what I wanted to point out is how the press, AGAIN, is making a big deal outy of the fact he lost over $350,000, not taking into account the winnings that that came out of. They again make it sound like he LOST $350,000 which we know is not accurate.

[Alan Mendelson]

What was he accused of losing?

[regnis]

Reports are varied. But they say he took $225,000 in campaign funds. Also say he lost $350,000. But as usual, they don't net wins and losses.

He says they indicted him because he refused to be a stoolie against someone else.

Illinois politics at its best.

[regnis]

Now they say he lost $477,000 in 3 years, and they say it is from casino records (player tracking). If it is from casino records, it may be actual losses rather than gross.

[Rob.Singer]

What's important before we go calling this guy a loser, is that we know if he was playing a +EV game, or even a -EV game that with added slot club fluff came out to over 100%. If either of these are the case, then since every hand was played at a theoretical advantage, he actually made X amount of phantom bucks. And that's taking a page right out of the AP playbook. Does "I've won every year but one" ring any bells? Now you have the notes to go with the tune.

[Count Room]

Rob: Why would it matter if he was playing +EV or -EV with slot club goodies or not? Losing is still losing, especially when getting desperate enough to steal to keep playing!

EDIT: All this aside, this topic reminds me of some of the articles I've read about gamblers embezzling. Six-figure thefts from employers are commonplace and these incidents are what the casinos thrive on.

[regnis]

Unfortunately Rob, in Illinois/Indiana we have no positive EV games, and due to the onerous tax rates, comps and other fluff are minimal. Oddly, some people still win.

[Count Room]

Another question I wonder about: If businesses such as pawn shops are forced to return stolen property, why aren't casinos forced to disgorge embezzlement proceeds back to the original owner of the cash in a similar vein?

[Alan Mendelson]

Another question I wonder about: If businesses such as pawn shops are forced to return stolen property, why aren't casinos forced to disgorge embezzlement proceeds back to the original owner of the cash in a similar vein?

That is a very good question. Because the government can go after "drug money" when deposited in banks, and used to buy real estate and cars and jewelry and seize those assets.

[Rob.Singer]

Rob: Why would it matter if he was playing +EV or -EV with slot club goodies or not? Losing is still losing, especially when getting desperate enough to steal to keep playing!

In a theft case where actual monetary results are required for an investigation, the game EV doesn't matter. I was being facetious. But when you are treated to the AP's tooting their horn about all the winning they do, it is then that you are expected to understand the purpose of using phantom bucks as the advantage.

How many times have you seen someone like Dancer blab about finding and playing a $90/hour promotion, only to have him explain that his actual results were -$20,000, but in terms of theoretical play he actually made $1800 because of his per hour "earnings". It's a trick they use to build their image as well as to be able to say they "won" at every year's end. Even the Democrats couldn't put a better spin on it.

[Rob.Singer]

Unfortunately Rob, in Illinois/Indiana we have no positive EV games, and due to the onerous tax rates, comps and other fluff are minimal. Oddly, some people still win.

Bbbbbut.....acri & redietz both preach that negative games are unbeatable! Are we being misled??

[arcimede$]

Bbbbbut.....acri & redietz both preach that negative games are unbeatable! Are we being misled??

No, that is not true. Why do you lie like this constantly?

[Alan Mendelson]

For the sake of discussion, Arc, would you mind repeating what your position is? I think I know, but I think if it is stated again the conversations will flow better. Thanks.

[regnis]

My law partner and I were amazed that the defense lawyer, one of the high profile top litigators in Chicago, didn't have the understanding of gambling to cross examine the casino employee and the IRS lady about the fact that putting $500,000 into a machine does not mean he lost $500,000. At about 800 an hour he should have known this or called in a gaming expert to explain it.

[Rob.Singer]

For the sake of discussion, Arc, would you mind repeating what your position is? I think I know, but I think if it is stated again the conversations will flow better. Thanks.

I'll explain why he said it's "untrue". He has an explanation that's exactly the opposite of whatever I say on every issue, and that's because he wants to appear smarter than the smartest. "A" for effort of course, but the usual "F" for results.

What we have here though is a fact that redietz has continually claimed negative games are unbeatable over time. Arci has said the same thing, but he's also said, as everyone including a 5 yr. old knows, that any machine is beatable today. However, where he gets caught this time is in the discussion only being about how -EV machines are beatable over time. They are, of course, just as they are beatable "today". But neither one of these AP's wants to believe that fact.

[Alan Mendelson]

I was hoping Arc would respond by now, but to be fair, he has said that winning is possible on negative machines and at negative games. What I am not sure is if he also would say that it is possible to win over the long term playing negative games? I hope he will clarify.

[arcimede$]

For the sake of discussion, Arc, would you mind repeating what your position is? I think I know, but I think if it is stated again the conversations will flow better. Thanks.

Really, we haven't discussed the bell curve for a couple of months at most and you guys already forget what it is?

The shape of the bell curve is determined by the number of hands played (each hand being a sample in a random distribution). It takes a few hundred hands before the curve starts taking shape and the more samples, the higher and narrower the bell curve becomes.

The center of the bell curve for any individual player is their own personal results. A machine will have it's own results as well. Since were talking about results here it is what Alan calls actual return not expected return.