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Thread: All or Nothing

  1. #1
    When I played professionally, each week I could always "expect" to see at least one quad--and I did. And some of the times, one special quad was all it took to attain a win goal and go back to Az. I played with a maximum 2400 credits, and although there were some very large in-session swings up & down thru the six denominations at times meaning some long sessions timewise, those 2400 credits always produced at least one quad on each and every session. Always.

    Recently I wrote how I went 3000 credits playing quarters thru dollars without a four-of-a-kind--while losing $1100. So overnight I went to a different casino nearby, and because of the quad drought I was only interested in seeing one, so I played only 50c. This time, by the time I got up to leave (which was the longest I've sat at a machine in years) I had run thru another 3400 credits without hitting one again. That's 6400 total and no quads.

    I don't think I'm too far off base for saying this. A streak such as this one would NEVER had happened when I used to play for a living. In fact it never did as I said up front, in over 11 years of that type of almost weekly play. If it did I would have seen my bankroll run out. So what's up with the machines today? I don't know. I did get 3 royals lately and a few other nice hits. But are the machines really that much against quads? I think so.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    But are the machines really that much against quads? I think so.
    Rob: you should stop using your post-retirement players card. As soon as you inserted it the machine turned-off the quads function.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    When I played professionally, each week I could always "expect" to see at least one quad--and I did. And some of the times, one special quad was all it took to attain a win goal and go back to Az. I played with a maximum 2400 credits, and although there were some very large in-session swings up & down thru the six denominations at times meaning some long sessions timewise, those 2400 credits always produced at least one quad on each and every session. Always.

    Recently I wrote how I went 3000 credits playing quarters thru dollars without a four-of-a-kind--while losing $1100. So overnight I went to a different casino nearby, and because of the quad drought I was only interested in seeing one, so I played only 50c. This time, by the time I got up to leave (which was the longest I've sat at a machine in years) I had run thru another 3400 credits without hitting one again. That's 6400 total and no quads.

    I don't think I'm too far off base for saying this. A streak such as this one would NEVER had happened when I used to play for a living. In fact it never did as I said up front, in over 11 years of that type of almost weekly play. If it did I would have seen my bankroll run out. So what's up with the machines today? I don't know. I did get 3 royals lately and a few other nice hits. But are the machines really that much against quads? I think so.
    This is what I was trying to say a few months ago in my "terrible stages" on artt and rtt strategies. HOWEVER, go on a CERTAIN day (never known) at a CERTAIN time frame, and I can hit 5-7. In my "guesstimation", the cold cycle "time frames " have been lengthened and stored for a short "time frame" hot cycle period-to simulate the "randomness" to meet "standards".

  4. #4
    Alan, I put this thread up as a point of info since this occurence is highly unusual--at least for me. It may be that others have experienced something like this, I don't know, but I've never read about it. I'll be in a casino to play again in about 2 weeks so I'll update this.

    Sling, while arci would cough up blood reading your reply, I have no problem with it. It's no secret casinos have been having a tougher and tougher time making money the past 5 or so years. It's also no secret we don't see all the regs, and that casinos are not run by the Nuns of Navarone.

  5. #5
    Well, Rob, I wonder if your "special plays" get in the way of drawing quads? After all, you are the only player I know who when dealt three queens and three to the royal will elect to go for the royal? See the video below.


  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Well, Rob, I wonder if your "special plays" get in the way of drawing quads? After all, you are the only player I know who when dealt three queens and three to the royal will elect to go for the royal? See the video below.

    Didn't I just see you scold that reporter for making comments about the billion dollar lady that were made with less-than-adequate knowledge of the subject matter? And I've explained this before, only you probably didn't let it sink in.

    That 3 Q's vs. 3-to-a-royal hold: it was only a required special play at the $25 & $100 levels, and I only saw/did it twice, working once. And today, I make only some of the special plays because many of them were tied to credits remaining and denomination levels--things that aren't as important to the scaled down for-entertainment way I play today.

  7. #7
    So Rob, if you were dealt As Js Jc Ks 5d and this was your very first hand of your trip/session how would you play it? Since it's the very first hand of your session, win goals wouldn't be a factor, right?

    How about As Js Kc Qd 5h whow would you play it?

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    So Rob, if you were dealt As Js Jc Ks 5d and this was your very first hand of your trip/session how would you play it? Since it's the very first hand of your session, win goals wouldn't be a factor, right?

    How about As Js Kc Qd 5h whow would you play it?
    When I played SPS, ARTT, and RTT as well as for entertainment today, in the first case I would hold the two J's. The only change would be in playing the first 3 strategies, where I would hold the three royal cards on the first hand if I were behind ytd.

    In the second example, I always hold the AJ suited.

  9. #9
    I agree with Rob's second example pick-but since I'm playing much shorter versions of the strategies, I would ALWAYS hold 3 to the Royal since, if it doesn't give anything, means I'm usually gonna be outta there pretty pronto. On these bad days, I've found playing BP and just trying for 20 credits keeps me going.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    When I played SPS, ARTT, and RTT as well as for entertainment today, in the first case I would hold the two J's. The only change would be in playing the first 3 strategies, where I would hold the three royal cards on the first hand if I were behind ytd.
    I vividly remember three times in my life when I held the high, paying pair, but had I held either two royal cards or three royal cards I would have drawn the royal.

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    In the second example, I always hold the AJ suited.
    I've seen differing opinions on this hand: some pros say hold the two royal cards, while others say hold the four high cards. With three royal cards I would also go for the royal.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I vividly remember three times in my life when I held the high, paying pair, but had I held either two royal cards or three royal cards I would have drawn the royal.
    Probably not. Since the time to make the different holds is not the same, your timing would have been different. That doesn't mean you wouldn't have hit the RF at other times.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I've seen differing opinions on this hand: some pros say hold the two royal cards, while others say hold the four high cards. With three royal cards I would also go for the royal.
    One of the interesting things is that Singer always claims the law of large numbers works for the casinos. If you think about his claim we know the law states that hitting 3 to a RF occurs once out of 1081 tries on average. Since Singer claims he hit it once in 2 tries that means other players who try this won't hit at all in other 1079 tries to maintain the average.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Probably not. Since the time to make the different holds is not the same, your timing would have been different.
    This is true with today's modern machines, but it's also a side issue that I would like to leave on the side for this discussion. Instead I would like to -- for a matter of simplicity -- just deal with "card selection" here. What the RNG is doing between the breaths we take is a whole other issue.

  13. #13
    Tell us the truth, Alan, did you make this sign?

    http://i.imgur.com/KkscfO9.jpg

  14. #14
    That reminds me of some Syracuse, New York history... when Syracuse University opened its first high rise dorm back in the 1960s, Mayor Lee Alexander at the ribbon cutting said that it was the "tallest erection in the city."

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I vividly remember three times in my life when I held the high, paying pair, but had I held either two royal cards or three royal cards I would have drawn the royal.



    I've seen differing opinions on this hand: some pros say hold the two royal cards, while others say hold the four high cards. With three royal cards I would also go for the royal.
    In this example, I'm always thinking quads if I don't hit the Royal. STILL possible, and i just did it today-quads.

  16. #16
    One really has to wonder how arci can have any humor left in him.

    That law of large numbers--it has nothing to do with what happens to any player on any single session....today's, OR tomorrow's. Arci's said it himself many times: I could see that hold convert half a dozen times in a row because that's how "random" works. It's all about giving yourself the OPPORTUNITY to be able to see it convert and not just the opportunity to hopefully see a few more deals that more likely will not present such a chance in the session again , vs. making the "safe" optimal hold that will likely put more points on your sacred little slot club cards. Praise be to the offers that come in the mail!

  17. #17
    All lies from Singer. If his statement is true about the probabilities working for casinos then they also MUST work on the players. After all there is nothing else but players. How can the probabilities only work one way? So, Rob can't have it both ways. It's nonsense. Opportunities are meaningless if you only hit at the average rate of success. You end up losing money.

    And, as I've pointed out many times, even at a session level the chances for success (winning that particular session) are often much higher by making optimal plays then throwing away credits on a silly special play.

    Everything I say is supported by basic mathematics. Singer claims to have done an analysis which we were supposed to see last October. Bwah haha haha. As I predicted we never saw it. Everything I've said can be verified as fact. That is the bottom line.

  18. #18
    Let me separate your thoughts and comments here Rob, so I can respond. First, about your style or strategy, you wrote:

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    It's all about giving yourself the OPPORTUNITY to be able to see it convert and not just the opportunity to hopefully see a few more deals that more likely will not present such a chance in the session again , vs. making the "safe" optimal hold that will likely put more points on your sacred little slot club cards.
    I have to admit that many times players will deviate from the expected strategy or hold to try for something bigger. I see this all the time in double double bonus when players are dealt two pair including one paying pair, such as KK55 and they will hold the kings hoping for the quads. The math says that over the long term they are more likely to hit a full house holding two pair, and will make more money going for full houses. OK, I accept the math, but some players are more concerned about the "here and now" session they are playing and don't care about any long term. This is also why players break up full houses with three aces in Bonus Poker -- and even I did it once and hit the case ace. But I did it only once and even though Ive been presented with the same opportunity many times since then, I've kept the dealt full house.

    Another reason for the safe or optimal hold comes down to the saying: a bird in the hand is worth two in bush... or... three of a kind in the hand is worth a royal in the bush. Of course there is a little complication here and that is the three of a kind in the hand could become four-of-a-kind.

    I wonder Rob if you lack of quads over so many hands is also because of the way you play? Or, are you now playing strictly conventional strategy because you are retired?

    Your second comment refers to players cards and comps and offers:

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Praise be to the offers that come in the mail!
    Yes Rob, when you total up all my offers over a given month just from Rincon -- if I went there twice a week -- I would have in excess of $3,000 a month of free play, plus some blankets, pots, towel sets. And if I got lucky on some of the mystery slot plays, that total could be as much as $7,000 a month. And this year, if I got lucky on the last Saturday of the month drawings another $100,000 per month is up for grabs and on New Year's Eve there is that one-million dollars jackpot. Why do you advocate leaving all that money on the table without the FREE chance to get some of it?

    You must be a very wealthy man to say to people don't bother playing with your players card.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I have to admit that many times players will deviate from the expected strategy or hold to try for something bigger. I see this all the time in double double bonus when players are dealt two pair including one paying pair, such as KK55 and they will hold the kings hoping for the quads. The math says that over the long term they are more likely to hit a full house holding two pair, and will make more money going for full houses. OK, I accept the math, but some players are more concerned about the "here and now" session they are playing and don't care about any long term. This is also why players break up full houses with three aces in Bonus Poker -- and even I did it once and hit the case ace. But I did it only once and even though Ive been presented with the same opportunity many times since then, I've kept the dealt full house.

    Another reason for the safe or optimal hold comes down to the saying: a bird in the hand is worth two in bush... or... three of a kind in the hand is worth a royal in the bush. Of course there is a little complication here and that is the three of a kind in the hand could become four-of-a-kind.

    I wonder Rob if you lack of quads over so many hands is also because of the way you play? Or, are you now playing strictly conventional strategy because you are retired?
    Yes Rob, when you total up all my offers over a given month just from Rincon -- if I went there twice a week -- I would have in excess of $3,000 a month of free play, plus some blankets, pots, towel sets. And if I got lucky on some of the mystery slot plays, that total could be as much as $7,000 a month. And this year, if I got lucky on the last Saturday of the month drawings another $100,000 per month is up for grabs and on New Year's Eve there is that one-million dollars jackpot. Why do you advocate leaving all that money on the table without the FREE chance to get some of it?

    You must be a very wealthy man to say to people don't bother playing with your players card.
    Players care about the so-called here & now because that's exactly how they play, always. As I've said so many times, the math only applies to the casinos. AP's have dove-tailed onto what is then nothing but a theory to them, solely for the purpose of justifying playing too much and too often....ie, to give credence to the addiction brought on by advantage play antics. {SECTION REMOVED BY MODERATOR. A PERSONAL ATTACK AND INAPPROPRIATE.}

    Special plays are all about giving oneself the opportunity to see that session-ending winner. Critics would say that they give the player less chances, but that's because they don't understand the math and only WANT the plays to cause losing. Anyone who plays understands that when you're at a machine, you will never attain any type of long term because only the casino holds that card. So what can you do? That's why the special plays were developed. They have ended many sessions--some with huge profits--and never have cost a losing session. Why? Several reasons. First, you're not running into these plays millions of times a session, and anything can happen at any time. Next, because overall, since the player is climbing in denomination and when the big hit eventually comes you automatically go back to a lower or the lowest denomination IF play need be continued at all, these plays over time absolutely do result in better results than not making them. Of course, the critics will never afgree to that because they cannot grasp onto how a player can go DOWN in denomination after hitting one.

    My current lack of a quad isn't related to these plays because I don't make them now UNLESS I play ARTT or RTT, which I have not done during this dry spell. You may recall, however, that the picture you posted of my $6000 four Aces on $5 TBP+ actually WAS the result of a special play, and that is the last quad I have hit in 6400+ hands.

    Alan, where have I said not to use a slot club card?? What I keep saying is that, in your case for example, you get so giddy over all the free stuff and invites etc., and that's exactly how the casinos want you to feel. You act like these casinos like to pay people for beating them at the machines! I'm also saying that they are not giving you these things out of the kindness of their hearts. I don't know if you are currently winning or losing, but you can be sure that these rope 'em in offers and freebies make the casinos LOTS of money, simply because players are too addicted to the "free" things and are unable to stay out of the casinos because of them. So what's that lead to? Of course....LOSING OVERALL for almost every player who gets caught up in all that nonsense!
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 02-16-2013 at 05:18 PM. Reason: Inappropriate, personal attack, removed by moderator

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Alan, where have I said not to use a slot club card?? What I keep saying is that, in your case for example, you get so giddy over all the free stuff and invites etc., and that's exactly how the casinos want you to feel. You act like these casinos like to pay people for beating them at the machines! I'm also saying that they are not giving you these things out of the kindness of their hearts. I don't know if you are currently winning or losing, but you can be sure that these rope 'em in offers and freebies make the casinos LOTS of money, simply because players are too addicted to the "free" things and are unable to stay out of the casinos because of them. So what's that lead to? Of course....LOSING OVERALL for almost every player who gets caught up in all that nonsense!
    Rob, what makes you think that the rest of the world doesn't realize that free play and other offers are incentives similar to supermarket and department store loss leaders? The rest of the world wasn't born yesterday. I think we (the community of players club members) are well aware of why casinos make offers. We're not as stupid as you make us out to be.

    We are also not all addicted like you seem to think. On the other hand, many of us would not even show up in a casino unless there was an offer that made the trip worthwhile.

    So I have to ask which is worse: a player who goes to a casino without an offer, or a player who goes to a casino with an offer? Rob, did you actually go to a casino without an offer?

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