+100% vp

[regnis]

Recently, in the Las Vegas Advisor, Anthony Curtis mentioned that he had consulted with a local bar on their VP in an attempt to generate some business for the bar. Under his guidance, they have a few positive EV games--15-8 Loose Duece (100.15%) and 10-7DB (100.17%). they also have some decent games and some lower pay games. He said he is not concerned about the +100% games because (and I quote from his article)
"regardless of the high returns, players aren’t going to beat these games. Most are still under 100%, and can’t be beaten over time. On the 100%+ machines, the edges are too small and the strategies too complicated to do damage. Hell, I can’t even beat 'em unless I’m holding a Bob Dancer strategy card in my hand. It’s a perfect situation: The bar makes money off the masses, while those who know what they’re doing have a terrific place to hang out and play good games, then spread the word."

Do you math guys agree? Would you make an effort to play these games or is the edge too small? Do you agree that the games can't be beat?

[Alan Mendelson]

I wouldn't care if the games paid 110% plus free play and cash back... I'm not going to a bar to play video poker when I travel to Vegas. Now, for all of the "professional video poker players" in Vegas, I am sure they don't mind playing in a bar to squeeze out their profits. By the way, did the article mention the denomination of the "positive" games? Because if they are low, you might be losing your profits with each drink you order.

[regnis]

Yes Alan-I wouldn't go there either--and i guess it is or was a dive bar. Stritcly for the pros. The denoms for the + games were .25 and .50. Other good games like 9-7-5 DB (99.11%) , 13-4-3 DWB (99.11%), and 9-6 JOB went to a dollar.

I assume the pros don't care where they play--and I assume there are no other benefits. So is the small + enough? Arci???

[redietz]

Personally, I would check the place out and play. At 50-cents a pop, the loose deuces would be fine. But I don't play a lot of video poker, so it's not like I would camp there.

The Palms has 10/7 DB, but I don't play much because I no longer have the strategy memorized. I did 15 years ago. Even checking the Dancer strategy cards with 10/7 takes a long time, so it's a hassle. But I'll play it versus an inferior paytable when it comes time to pump 1000 points on my card to stay active. The Four Queens also has 10/7 with a progressive downtown.

I really don't think you can make a living playing vp in LV these days. So play the positive paytables when there are promotions, and simply don't play the rest of the time.

[redietz]

I should amend that -- if you're a senior, certain days at certain locales have promotions good enough to make it okay even with NSUD,which is technically negative. So a senior day rotation can be okay if you don't mind food and comps instead of cash as your "profit." The Boyd properties, for example have an ongoing 40% bonus if you use points for food. I happen to like some Orleans restaurants, so that works out. Pssst -- keep that 40% bonus secret.

[redietz]

Alan, you gotta stop using that "math guy" phrase. There are no "math guys" and "non-math guys." There is only sanity or lack thereof.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm not a math guy and I am very sane. In fact, I can see the insanity that some math guys have... like throwing more money at a promotion than a car is worth.

[arcimede$]

I wouldn't play it unless there were some other added benefits. Let's assume you could play dollars and maintain a .15% edge. Playing 800 hands/hour is $4000/hour. That comes out to a whopping $6/hour. In Vegas you can play quarter FPDW for more money and very little risk. Even if you provided $5 games the $30/hour is hardly worth the risk.

[regnis]

Arci-do you agree with his statement that regardless of the high returns, players aren't going to beat these nachines. Is the + just too small?

[arcimede$]

Arci-do you agree with his statement that regardless of the high returns, players aren't going to beat these nachines. Is the + just too small?

I agree. While there would be a few winners who hit a larger share of the bigger jackpots the majority would lose. Consider the problems with just RFs. They average once every 40K hands. Those 40K hands cost around 2% of the bet. That's 2% of $200K or $4000. If you miss out on one just one royal over the course of your play it would take 4000/6 or 667 hours just to get back to even. Probably never happen.

[Alan Mendelson]

On deuces wild games, royals come about once in 48,000 hands because you never throw away deuces.

[Rob.Singer]

You may recall I did the same type thing at Wynn about 6 years ago, and the reason was the same--to get in more business. But these 25c thru $1 machines also had FPDW, and the locals hogged all the machines so hotel guests never had a chance. The end result, which Wynn gave me permission to publish, was a good overall profit for the casino that was less percentagewise, but the machines were ordered removed because of all the constant complaints from irate hotel guests. They actually should put these things in at all their bars, seeing how you have to pay 6 bucks for a beer even if you're playing $50/hand.