Originally Posted by
Alan Mendelson
I'm not struggling with the idea at all, Arc. I just think we should be clear about our definitions here. So allow me to repeat the definitions that I am working with:
Expected Return is theoretical and applies to each hand and to the future.
Actual Return is what happened in the past whether it be a particular hand or session or lifetime of play.
Now I have to question your use of "expected return" for the game and "expected return" for the player. I thought that the expected return is the expected return... period. Unless, of course, the player is not using "proper strategy" because I think all of the expressions of "expected return" are based on "proper strategy."
For the record, Rob has always said that the "expected return" on his strategy and holds and special plays has pretty much always been lower than the "expected return" of conventional play. But he says his strategy differences allow for the possibility of winning certain big hands. And this brings us back to the original starting point of this discussion: Rob never challenges the "expected return."
To be correct, I think the proper statement would be something like this:
Video poker games have an expected return. But Rob believes that by utilizing so-called special plays and utilizing a win goal strategy that his actual return can exceed the expected return.
Now will that work?
edited to add:
The reason why I want to point out what Rob has said before (you can see the videos, since the info is there) and what the "working definitions" of certain terms are, is because Rob is not as crazy as his critics make him out to be. In the first place he is no different from anyone else who walks into a casino: he tries to win and he is motivated to win. Secondly he will sometimes take chances or change his play to maximize his chances of winning.
For some reason only the so-called "advantage players" have a problem with the concept of quitting when ahead, whether that objection is based on the short term, the long term, or when the next session will be played. The rest of the world, I submit, does not have a problem with the concept of quitting when you have a lead.