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Thread: Why reduced pay tables don't matter in video poker.

  1. #1
    I titled this thread "why reduced pay tables don't matter in video poker" because I don't think they do matter to many players. I'm not saying the players who ignore the lower pay tables are doing the right thing -- I'm just saying that many players do ignore the lower pay tables.

    It is why they also play "negative games" because the negative pay tables don't mean much when they are trying for the big win such as a royal or a progressive.

    So what is the difference between a positive game and a negative game? Well, on many games it comes down to the difference on certain quads, and the difference usually on the payout of a full house and a flush.

    9/6 Jacks or Better returns 99.54% while 8/5 Bonus pays 99.2%. But to most players the differences in the middle paying hands such as full house or flush don't really matter because most players (pros and "experts" excluded) are always playing for a Royal Flush or a run of big quads to "make their day."

    I see players all the time at casinos like Caesars and Rincon near San Diego gladly playing 8/5 Jacks or 8/5 Double Double Bonus and ignoring the poor paytable that the pros wouldn't touch because these are the games with the progressive jackpots and the lure of the big royal is what the players are playing for. Often, these games with the lower paytables also have the progressive royals-- another big lure.

    I would suggest that many players wouldn't care if they had a run of full houses paying 9 coins or 8 coins or 7 coins or even 6 coins because they aren't playing for full houses.

    Again, I'm not saying this is the "right thing to do" but I think it's what people do.

    Expert or better informed players would say "but if you play the better pay tables your money will last longer and you will have a better shot of hitting the royal." And I think that's true, too.

    But I would like to ask this question: has anyone busted out of a video poker session because they hit too many full houses that paid a lower amount? Has anyone busted out of a video poker session because their big run of flushes paid a lower amount?

    I don't think so. I've busted because I didn't hit enough of any full houses or any flushes -- not that the payoffs on the flushes and full houses were lower.

    I've never kept track of how much more money I would have won, or how much money I would have, if my full houses and flushes on Bonus Poker or Double Double Bonus paid one extra coin. Would I have won 10 extra coins in a session, or five extra coins? Would I have been able to play one extra hand or two extra hands?

    If the chance of a royal is one in 40-thousand hands, would playing the better paytable for full houses and flushes have helped me?

    Full houses and flushes will never give me the "win" to call it quits, and in the overall scheme of things I don't think the difference among full houses and flushes on various paytables makes that big a difference. And I don't think a higher pay on a full house or a flush is what's going to make me a winner -- those payoffs might keep me playing longer -- but they won't make me a winner.

    So what's my point? My point is sure, we'd all like to play 10/6 Jacks or Better, or 9/6 Bonus Poker... but the reality is those games just ain't around. And kicking and screaming over half a percentage point just doesn't make much sense.

    I think it's why Rob feels that he can win just as well on a negative expectation game:

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    It's just simple common sense: If it's possible to win TODAY on a machine that's just slightly less than 100%, theoretically of course, and just slightly less than what a so-called +EV machine is, it is always just as possible and likely that you can win similarly on EVERY day you play them.

  2. #2
    Sorry Alan, your long diatribe does not address Singer's claim. Singer's claim is what you expect from a con. It is a logical fallacy. Winning one day has nothing to do with winning every day. Anyone who has played VP knows that none of us win every day. It is pure fiction but he uses that claim to support his system. Why would anyone trust someone who lies right up front?

    As for your response you never did address how "you can win similarly on EVERY day" works. It's ridiculous and that's the first thing you should have addressed in his statement. There's no doubt that the vast majority of gamblers don't know or care about pay tables, but that nothing to do with what Singer said.
    Last edited by arcimede$; 03-23-2013 at 05:54 AM.

  3. #3
    You may as well have entitled the thread, "Why most people are idiots."

    You are right, as most people don't care about paytables and most people lose. Good for them. Lose until the cows come home, and I salute you. Collect your diamond, adamantium, or zirconia merit badges. Have a blast.

    If sports books ever change the house take to 6/5 instead of 11/10, I stop wagering on sports. Pure and simple. I'm not in the business to lose. I'm not in the business for "entertainment."

    If you're hellbent on losing, give your money to charity and save yourself some time. "Entertainment" like watching different color rectangles pop up on a screen is really pretty lame.

  4. #4
    I'll give a thumbs-up to the explanation that getting FH's and/or flushes that have lowered paytables really has zero effect in any given session's outcome. If arci weren't so focused on his frustration with knowing I am able to win 85% of my INDIVIDUAL sessions--and if he could ever learn not to toss & turn thinking about it all night--he, as a self-proclaimed "AP", would have addressed that issue first. He as usual chose to go on a stampede of lies, which I'm sure Vic will take notice of

    Now, how does one "win similarly" on almost every day? Easy. You follow the blueprint you used when you won yesterday. Remember, the geeks, the nerds, and the neurotics of the world have never been able to see outside the straight & narrow of the boundaries of the box. To them, playing every hand robotically perfect is the best one cando. They cannot and will not see that video poker is a game where human interaction offers the opportunity to make choices. What game, what denomination & when, what money management system, what paytables, and what cards to hold are all choices given to the player, and the player can choose to lose almost every day if he wants to end up far below what optimal play expects. SIMILARLY but a bit harder, the player can adjust these choices to end up far better than the optimal play scenario TODAY if he chooses to.

    It is all in how much the player chooses to learn about what they're doing. AP's Don't allow themselves any movement. Look at the basic set of very dumb comments made by Dancer in his latest column. He, like arci, thinks he's smarter than everybody (ironic that arguing with each other is what got arci permanently banned from vpFree ) but all he did was show the flaws of being a simple one-dimensional thinker....a common trait of true believers. He claimed that losing more than $20,000 trying to win $15,000 in freeplay was a "smart gambling decision" and then exhibited his apprehension by saying he was "nearly 100% sure" he'd be ahead by year's end. And while that statement was only put in to appease his true believer base, he actually knows nothing of the sort.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 03-23-2013 at 09:27 AM.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    You may as well have entitled the thread, "Why most people are idiots."

    You are right, as most people don't care about paytables and most people lose. Good for them. Lose until the cows come home, and I salute you. Collect your diamond, adamantium, or zirconia merit badges. Have a blast.

    If sports books ever change the house take to 6/5 instead of 11/10, I stop wagering on sports. Pure and simple. I'm not in the business to lose. I'm not in the business for "entertainment."

    If you're hellbent on losing, give your money to charity and save yourself some time. "Entertainment" like watching different color rectangles pop up on a screen is really pretty lame.
    Redietz, where players like you & arci get lost is in saying how you'll stop playing if the "good plays ever go away". You know you won't, and Dancer is the poster boy for that nonsense. AP's simply keep peeling down the onion to create new reasons to continue to gamble, and thin air has a lot to do with it. Arci likes to say he won't play vp any more when those crummy old oej machines are removed. Yeah right. You think a guy hooked on video poker so much that he's willing to leave a sick wife behind a day a week, will ever "just stop playing"?

    Get real.

  6. #6
    Poor Robbie, once again we see his projection. As an addicted player he simply can't understand how anyone could just quit. It oozes out of his last comment. Sorry to disappoint you Robbie but I will quit when I no longer have an advantage.

    Oh yeah, I don't leave my sick wife behind. She's not really sick in the normal meaning of the word and she has company while I'm gone. One can only feel sorry for Cindy Lou if you force yourself on her 24 hours a day.

  7. #7
    I know I won't, Rob?

    Evidently you think you know me.

    Tell you what -- let's get that polygraph operator and test me on that question. We can put up 10K, 25K or whatever figure you can afford on the outcome.

    Now, Rob, I have a problem with what you just said regarding me. A serious problem. I suggest you either make the wager or retract the statement.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Tell you what -- let's get that polygraph operator and test me on that question. We can put up 10K, 25K or whatever figure you can afford on the outcome.

    Now, Rob, I have a problem with what you just said regarding me. A serious problem. I suggest you either make the wager or retract the statement.
    I like to keep track of the wagers and challenges here, so would you specifically state what the wager/question is?

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Poor Robbie, once again we see his projection. As an addicted player he simply can't understand how anyone could just quit. It oozes out of his last comment. Sorry to disappoint you Robbie but I will quit when I no longer have an advantage.

    Oh yeah, I don't leave my sick wife behind. She's not really sick in the normal meaning of the word and she has company while I'm gone. One can only feel sorry for Cindy Lou if you force yourself on her 24 hours a day.
    So then we're still waiting for the picture of what you feel so good about leaving behind, arci. STILL waiting....

    And how 'bout one of the company too....you know, we ALL long for that kind of "company"....

  10. #10
    Don't go here Rob...

    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    So then we're still waiting for the picture of what you feel so good about leaving behind, arci. STILL waiting....

    And how 'bout one of the company too....you know, we ALL long for that kind of "company"....
    Because we are all still waiting for your evidence that's locked up in a storage unit and we hope you can get at it before it shows up on Storage Wars.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I know I won't, Rob?

    Evidently you think you know me.

    Tell you what -- let's get that polygraph operator and test me on that question. We can put up 10K, 25K or whatever figure you can afford on the outcome.

    Now, Rob, I have a problem with what you just said regarding me. A serious problem. I suggest you either make the wager or retract the statement.
    Of course you have a problem with an undeniable truth such as that, just as arci does, only he keeps his anger pent up inside until he's chipped away at just enough to make him crack. Not so with you, only I can't see why such an opinion would offend you. If or when the time comes and you find what you're gambling on just isn't there any more, 6 months AFTER that is the time to do the polygraph. You don't do them on intentions as far as I know.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Don't go here Rob...



    Because we are all still waiting for your evidence that's locked up in a storage unit and we hope you can get at it before it shows up on Storage Wars.
    Well, my only reason for such a delay is because of a healthy & happy person who doesn't NEED such company, and we both want to spend our time together doing the things WE want to do. Chasing storage isn't too high on the list right now!

    But you did bring up a real good point. I pay for this thing once every year. I have to find & dust off my will to update it with clarity on how it continues to get paid until my grandson's 25th birthday or he graduates from college. And I'll designate all the boxes of video poker stuff--including twenty copies of each book--to you, just in case.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 03-23-2013 at 02:55 PM.

  13. #13
    Watching Singer scramble when his mythical papers are mentioned is totally hilarious. Add to that his scrambling to avoid taking the bet from redietz and popcorn futures are soaring. Could Singer's babbling look any more ridiculous?

  14. #14
    What? You mean you're still dodging posting that picture we're all absolutely dying to see? Are you really THAT embarrassed to show what you leave home once a week over??

    C'Mon man!!

  15. #15
    I don't understand this whole argument between Singer and arcimedes, so I will just stick to the original topic at hand.

    It is a huge mistake to ignore the pay tables in video poker.

    It is also a big mistake to count the number of "winning sessions", as this is irrelevant. For example, if you win 100 sessions in a row for an average of $5, and then lose the 101st session for $600, you are still a net loser, even if you won over 99% of those sessions. It's best to think of the whole thing as "one long session" so you don't confuse yourself into believing that walking away ahead most times is equivalent to being an overall winner.

    It is impossible to be a winner at video poker if you are playing 8-5 for the long term. There's no way that will happen, even if you start off lucky and hit a few royals. The lowered pay table will eventually grind your profits down to zero, and then negative.

    I understand Alan's point that "most people don't play for flushes and full houses", and indeed most casual video poker players tend to ignore the pay tables. For that reason, if I owned a casino, there's no way I would offer better than 8-5 (that is, 8 for full house, 5 for flush), and very possibly would go as low as 7-5, because most players are ignorant to what the right pay is, so you might as well pay them less. It is important, however, to keep the player from losing TOO fast, or otherwise it won't be fun and he'll quit a lot sooner. There's a "sweet spot" for casinos where the player loses quickly enough to be highly profitable for the establishment, but has enough of a chance for a short-term win to where it keeps him coming back for more.

    Anyway, you should absolutely NEVER play any Jacks or Better video poker machine for less than 9-6 unless you're just there for fun.

    I have also noticed a recent prevalence of "Double Double Bonus Poker" machines replacing the Jacks or Better. This is another innovation that absolutely kills people's bankrolls. Double Double Bonus Poker raises the pay table for Four of a Kind and often pays 9/6 for full house/flush, BUT it comes with the crippling penalty of paying even money for 2-pair, instead of 2x money. That's an absolute killer, and most don't realize it. It also requires a major strategy change, as pairs below jacks are now not worth as much to hold, as 2-pair doesn't win you any money. Most people don't know the strategy changes, and most also don't realize that the even-money 2-pair really costs you big time.

    If you're going to play video poker, always stick to Jacks or Better unless you know the strategy modifications really well. Don't play Double Double Bonus, Deuces Wild, or any of that other crap.

    Here is another tip:

    If you see a machine offering "Jacks or Better" and "Bonus Poker", inspect both pay tables. Sometimes Bonus Poker is identical to Jacks or Better, except it offers a little better pay for four of a kind, with everything else being equal! In that case, make sure to play Bonus Poker instead, but verify that none of its payouts are WORSE than Jacks or Better. Specifically, make sure 2 pair pays at 2x.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Double Double Bonus Poker raises the pay table for Four of a Kind and often pays 9/6 for full house/flush, BUT it comes with the crippling penalty of paying even money for 2-pair, instead of 2x money. That's an absolute killer, and most don't realize it. It also requires a major strategy change, as pairs below jacks are now not worth as much to hold, as 2-pair doesn't win you any money. Most people don't know the strategy changes, and most also don't realize that the even-money 2-pair really costs you big time.
    Dan I have to ask you this: if playing DDB and dealt KK22 what do you hold? What is your strategy?


    And it is very interesting that you wrote this, especially after your visit to Rincon:

    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    If you see a machine offering "Jacks or Better" and "Bonus Poker", inspect both pay tables. Sometimes Bonus Poker is identical to Jacks or Better, except it offers a little better pay for four of a kind, with everything else being equal! In that case, make sure to play Bonus Poker instead, but verify that none of its payouts are WORSE than Jacks or Better. Specifically, make sure 2 pair pays at 2x.
    I don't know if you noticed but all of the Jacks or Better games are at 8/5, the same as Bonus Poker and Aces and Faces, making it a no brainer not to play Jacks or Better and to go for the bonus games.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Don't go here Rob...



    Because we are all still waiting for your evidence that's locked up in a storage unit and we hope you can get at it before it shows up on Storage Wars.
    Freakin' funny Alan. The beauty is the guy going through the unit and saying to his partner "Jackpot! these here papers will fetch at least 25 G's"

  18. #18
    Let's see if we can have a decent discussion without irrational disruption. I have a different perspective from Dan's baseline about what to play and what it means. First, I've never played JoB after leaving the AP world. Even at 9/6 (or even the 10/6 versions they had for a few years at the Stratosphere) the game is a loser. You cannot go in expecting to come out a winner because there are only 2 hands that can get you back and/or home a winner if you're a smart goal-setter: the SF and the royal. Such a game is only meaningful to those who value points, comps, and slot club status over winning money regularly.

    That odd BP paytable is similarly useless, so I agree. There are also some BP tables that pay the A's thru 4's bonus, they have 10/8/6 for the FH/flush/straight, but two pair pays 1. I never play that one either.

    However, while paytables have some importance, I've played 7/5 BP far more than 8/5 BP, and I've beaten both of them very regularly with neither leading the way percentagewise. I completely disagree that you will lose "over time" on any paytable for the few games that I do play within my strategies (BP, SDBP, TBP+, SABP, & DDBP) IF you follow what I say to do to the letter. I did this successfully for 11+ years, and to some extent, I am doing even better today in retirement, though I am not strictly following the guidelines.

  19. #19
    The wager in question is whether I would bet on sports if the house edge went to 6/5 instead of 11/10. This is not a theoretical question, as when the LV books were taking a beating briefly last season, some floated the idea. My formal response, and what I told my clients, is that we do not wager at 6/5 and never will.

    This 6/5 stuff is also the case in Hawaii, where illegal books offer primarily 6/5 because they have the market cornered.

    Now Rob, in his omniscience, says he knows me so well that he knows I would wager at 6/5.

    The question, for 10K, 25K or whatever Rob wants to put up, is simply, "Do I know I will stop wagering on straight plays if 6/5 are the only odds available for straight plays?"

    C'mon, Robby, be a man and put your bankroll where your omniscience is, baby.

  20. #20
    So how long will it be before this wager can be resolved? One year? Five?

    Do I understand this correctly: you are going to be hooked up to a polygraph and the polygraph is supposed to prove that sometime in the future you will keep your word whether or not you would make a sports bet if the odds are reduced?

    Do polygraphs also foresee the future? I thought that a polygraph could only detect lies or truths about known facts, and not whether or not you might do something when and if odds are lowered by casinos some time in the future?
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 03-24-2013 at 01:52 PM.

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