LUCK is almost EVERYTHING in Video Poker

[Rob.Singer]

I expected a lively discussion, and even arci's bevy of lies, hatred, misinformation & envy can't derail it. I guess he didn't win that bowling tournament yesterday, and we all know thanks to his camera and several awkward comments he probably wishes he could retract, that he really REALLY needed to win it

The easiest part of all this is arci's lie that using a special play lessens the chance I'll hit a win goal. Again, he's looking at the issue in a long-term setting, and he should know better than to assume any such analysis can be accurately applied to short-term play. This particular play may appear once or twice in a session, and how often are you going to get an opportunity like being dealt 3 aces? So if you don't take advantage of the opportunity, you have no chance of hitting the big hand. So obviously, YES, making that special play is the right thing to do--not in the 50-play setting Alan just mentioned--but always in a goal-oriented strategy where hitting the aces achieves a goal.

I wish I could continue the schooling of the AP's here like I've always done, but we have something more important to do that it seems the whining AP's have no clue about. It's something called LIVING, and we're headed down to Mammouth Lakes & Yosemite today and possibly overnight.

Enjoy all that wonderful downtime contemplating all that "could have been" arci

[Vegas_lover]

Ahhhh, let me take some time to take this one apart and devide it into the usual ingredients (as Rob never disappoints in his patterns and unfortunately nore does Arci)

I expected a lively discussion, and even arci's bevy of lies, hatred, misinformation & envy can't derail it. I guess he didn't win that bowling tournament yesterday, and we all know thanks to his camera and several awkward comments he probably wishes he could retract, that he really REALLY needed to win it

You see, back to the playground pissing contest (hé can you top this one?)

The easiest part of all this is arci's lie that using a special play lessens the chance I'll hit a win goal. Again, he's looking at the issue in a long-term setting, and he should know better than to assume any such analysis can be accurately applied to short-term play. This particular play may appear once or twice in a session, and how often are you going to get an opportunity like being dealt 3 aces? So if you don't take advantage of the opportunity, you have no (absolutely without a doubt WRONG. You're basically saying that without your special plays there's no way anybody would hit a big pay in a short-term session (whatever the hell that means)) chance of hitting the big hand. So obviously, YES, making that special play is the right thing to do--not in the 50-play setting Alan just mentioned--but always in a goal-oriented strategy where hitting the aces achieves a goal.

When hitting the aces is needed to reach a win goal, disregard anything optimal play suggests. The only thing you should do is hold any ace and hope for the best. Insert a win goal and loss limit and there you have all the strategy needed (in the wonderful world of Rob)

I wish I could continue the schooling of the AP's here like I've always done, but we have something more important to do that it seems the whining AP's have no clue about. It's something called LIVING, and we're headed down to Mammouth Lakes & Yosemite today and possibly overnight.

Ahh, I was wondering when the patting on one's own back would return. Thank you for not letting me down Rob. Predictable as always. Ain't life sweet?

Enjoy all that wonderful downtime contemplating all that "could have been" arci

More playground foolishness

Get the routine Alan?

[Alan Mendelson]

One thing at a time, Arc. First this:

Alan, when you have a 2-card draw you have 2 chances to draw the ace. That gives you a 2/47 chance.

There is only one ace left in each hand, two chances to draw it. I have, in each hand when dealt 3 aces, only a 1/47 draw meaning there are 47 cards left in the deck and only one of those 47 cards will give me the quad aces.

Let's go on to your battle with Rob:

Now, since Alan appears to want people to lose more money playing VP, let me once again point out that giving up those credits on the vast majority of Singer special plays actually REDUCES the chances of hitting a win goal. That Alan allow Singer's lies to continue unchallenged says he is willing to have the people that read his forum believe a lie. Since this has been pointed out multiple times in the past it clearly calls Alan's ethics into question.

Arc, again, if you think that reporting on Rob's system is the same as endorsing his system, then I can't argue with you. Your mind is made up. I don't endorse his special plays, though I do admit when dealt AAA3X in triple double bonus (or any kicker with three aces) I would just hold the three aces.

I think even Rob was very careful to point out in ALL of the videos about his special plays that his special plays have a lower expected value, but are used trying to get a bigger "session ending win." Okay, so you don't agree with that strategy. I don't either. But reporting that doesn't mean I endorse it or want people to lose money.

What is important is that I was the first reporter EVER to give Rob a chance to show everyone his special plays in ONE PLACE. And I am proud that I did it, so everyone has a chance to look at them, examine them, and make up their own minds outside of the rumors and the hearsay.

As for this:

Now, as for Singer ... just look at all his posts. On one hand he claims to hit one big winner after another. Then, he claims he doesn't play very often as that would indicate an addicted APer. When you combine his lack of play with fantastic claims of winning there's only two possibilities. Either he's the luckiest person in the Universe or he's a lying sack of bovine excrement. Alan appears to be complete oblivious to these facts.

I don't care. I don't care how often Rob plays, and I also don't care how often you play Arc. You guys think it's a big deal who wins what, and I don't. I wish you both many one eyed jacks and royal flushes.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well I have done that but there was hardly any interaction because most were to entangled into the playground fights. And besides that, the two playground toughies hyjack every other topic within a couple of posts without any restriction. Until that changes we are all limited to kick the same dead horse over and over again.

I could make the same argument about your own contributions. You make little effort to bring diversity to your own forum so we're not getting anywhere. Why do you think the number of active posters on your forum is still limited to about 10? You know the answer but I guess sometimes it's more convenient to pretend you're blind.

And by the way, this was the only thing you could think of in response to my post (#26)? Please, again, tell me where did I say in this thread I hoped Rob wouldn't reply? And pretty please, explain to me how this thread is completely new and the content hasn't been discussed at lenght before (maybe in slightly different wording)? Waiting for the education

Sorry if I got it all wrong. Continuing giving your trip reports, your strategy reviews, your reviews about casinos and service and hotels and restaurants. Let us know about the travel deals, the best hosts you run into, and I love the reports about the promotions being offered and the latest incentives that casinos are dishing out. Yes, please continue all of those reports. Thanks.

[Alan Mendelson]

No one has ever questioned the fact that mathematically the special plays will lower the expected return. However, you are not taking into account that the special plays increase the chance of hitting a big hand, albeit possibly sacrificing a small % long term. So someone playing on a session by session basis may find the special plays are more suitable for their goals. If you eschew proper strategy and gon for the royal every hand, you probably will hit more royals that a player using proper strategy. If you hit that extra royal before you go broke playing poor strategy (LUCK) you will win.

Again, this all ain't that hard to understand.

Well said.

[Alan Mendelson]

NO ... that is not correct. Most special plays REDUCE the chance of hitting a big hand.

You see Alan, people do get led astray by the lies that Singer spews. By allowing Singer's lies to have a voice you are part of the problem.

Arc, let's use my favorite example: AAAKK in 7/5 Bonus. Rob says to hold the three aces for the chance to draw the quad aces. He sacrifices the full house for the chance of a big win. This special plays INCREASES the chance of the big hand. Correct strategy says hold the full house... but holding the full house gives you ZERO chance of getting quad aces.

Why can't you accept Rob's special plays for what they are? Even Rob concedes they need "luck" to come out ahead, but when you get lucky you do come out ahead. Quad aces is certainly worth a lot more than a full house in Bonus Poker.

[Alan Mendelson]

And exactly as I was saying earlier today, same old discussion all over again. Now, Alan want to question that? Or should we now start discussing the colour of the gift wrapping? Polish a turd, it's still a turd.

I have a solution: Do not participate. Read something else. There are 284 pages on my website www.alanbestbuys.com That's 284 pages OVER AND ABOVE the pages on this Forum. I have more than 500 videos on the site... over and above the 24 or so about Rob.

Also, three years of my complete weekly TV shows PLUS most of my half hour TV infomercials are also on this site. Please watch them all.

Thanks.

[Alan Mendelson]

More playground foolishness

Get the routine Alan?

Vegas_lover, I will not deny that a lot of this forum is filled with examples of bad, immature behavior between two grown men, neither of which has accepted my invitation to take the high road.

One can only hope that one day one of them will wake up first and end the ridiculousness. I am on your side in this regard.

My policy lately has been to let them continue their childish rants and leave it here online as their legacy forever... because Google archives this site, and it will be kept forever.

[arcimede$]

Arc, let's use my favorite example: AAAKK in 7/5 Bonus. Rob says to hold the three aces for the chance to draw the quad aces. He sacrifices the full house for the chance of a big win. This special plays INCREASES the chance of the big hand. Correct strategy says hold the full house... but holding the full house gives you ZERO chance of getting quad aces.

Why can't you accept Rob's special plays for what they are? Even Rob concedes they need "luck" to come out ahead, but when you get lucky you do come out ahead. Quad aces is certainly worth a lot more than a full house in Bonus Poker.

Alan, I know this is your favorite and it may be the only special play that actually does increase the chances of hitting a win goal. I've mentioned this before. One out of how many? You want to make a wager that the majority of his special plays will increase the chances of hitting a goal? I say the majority REDUCE the chances and I can (well I already have for 5 or 6 or them last year) prove it.

So, get off of your duff and do the work you should have done a couple of years ago.

PS. You also want to wager on your 1/47 claim? I'm all in.

[Vegas_lover]

Sorry if I got it all wrong. Continuing giving your trip reports, your strategy reviews, your reviews about casinos and service and hotels and restaurants. Let us know about the travel deals, the best hosts you run into, and I love the reports about the promotions being offered and the latest incentives that casinos are dishing out. Yes, please continue all of those reports. Thanks.

Selective searching Alan, I started a couple of new topics with completely different subjects but they got little respons or were hyjacked within a couple of posts. Keep sticking your head in the sand, that thick skull is working perfectly for you. A G-rating for this forum is stretching it A LOT.

Please continue the sarcasm and continue to put no effort into making this place any better than it is. At this point my contributions will be restricted to exactly what I'm doing now. You know, freedom of speech

[Alan Mendelson]

I say the majority REDUCE the chances and I can (well I already have for 5 or 6 or them last year) prove it.

You may be right. I don't play most of the games Rob wrote about.

So, get off of your duff and do the work you should have done a couple of years ago.

I did my job. I presented Singer's strategy for everyone to see. That is the job of a reporter.

PS. You also want to wager on your 1/47 claim? I'm all in.

Wager what? That when you have one ace left in a deck your chance of a draw is 1/47 vs. 2/47 ?? Okay, you win. You have two chances to find the one ace in the remaining 47 cards.

How is the buffet at that casino?

[Vegas_lover]

I have a solution: Do not participate. Read something else. There are 284 pages on my website www.alanbestbuys.com That's 284 pages OVER AND ABOVE the pages on this Forum. I have more than 500 videos on the site... over and above the 24 or so about Rob.

Also, three years of my complete weekly TV shows PLUS most of my half hour TV infomercials are also on this site. Please watch them all.

Thanks.

I have absolutely no use for all the other stuff on your website since I'm from the other side of the world. The Vegas part is the only part that could mean anything to me. You have no solution or vision for where to go with this Vegas forum. Don't like my comments? Get used to them. You've had stuff thrown in your direction the last year way worse than I'm doing and I'm just voicing my opinion and since it's a free world...

[arcimede$]

You may be right. I don't play most of the games Rob wrote about.



I did my job. I presented Singer's strategy for everyone to see. That is the job of a reporter.



Wager what? That when you have one ace left in a deck your chance of a draw is 1/47 vs. 2/47 ?? Okay, you win. You have two chances to find the one ace in the remaining 47 cards.

Whether you were trying or not you stated the situation correctly. You have 2 chances. Or, you could look at all 1081 possible 2 card draws. The ones that work are an ace with anyone of the other 46 cards. So, that comes out to 46 out of 1081. Can you divide 1081 by 46?

[arcimede$]

I did my job. I presented Singer's strategy for everyone to see. That is the job of a reporter.

Let me see if I understand this. You believe that giving the Nigerian scammers a voice is a valid approach. Let them have access to all the little old ladies so they can get money from them. Nice to know you're such a nice guy to the crooks of the world.

[Alan Mendelson]

Let me see if I understand this. You believe that giving the Nigerian scammers a voice is a valid approach. Let them have access to all the little old ladies so they can get money from them. Nice to know you're such a nice guy to the crooks of the world.

Arc, now honestly, how can you equate Rob Singer advocating a method to play video poker with Nigerian lottery scammers? Show me how Rob's system or anything connected with it is a criminal enterprise or breaks any laws? Tell you what -- show me how his strategy violates any rules of any casino?

[Vegas_lover]

Arc, now honestly, how can you equate Rob Singer advocating a method to play video poker with Nigerian lottery scammers? Show me how Rob's system or anything connected with it is a criminal enterprise or breaks any laws? Tell you what -- show me how his strategy violates any rules of any casino?

How's this for a resemblance:

Rob states that if you follow his instructions, great fortune will come your way (you will be a consistant winner, hey you could even win a million bucks in about ten years if you've got the right bankroll).

Don't those Nigerians scammers operate the same way? They promise you great fortune if you follow their instructions.

One important difference between the Nigerians and Rob: the Nigerians ask politely.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob states that if you follow his instructions, great fortune will come your way (you will be a consistant winner, hey you could even win a million bucks in about ten years if you've got the right bankroll).

Don't those Nigerians scammers operate the same way? They promise you great fortune if you follow their instructions.

Let's see some of the differences:

1. Rob doesn't ask for any money. Yes, he has a book but you didn't have to buy it.
2. I don't recall Rob guaranteeing any kind of wins. All of the videos talk about "luck" and he states openly that his special plays have a lower expected return.
3. Why don't you guys raise the same question with any of the other video poker authors and those who talk about pouring thousands of dollars on special promotions? But you can't because they aren't asking for money either, nor are they making any promises.

So what is the difference with Rob Singer? The difference is you don't like Rob Singer. You don't like Rob Singer because he makes obnoxious comments and he is rude and he insults people and you don't want to be friends with him because he is offensive and mean and a son-of-a-bitch, right? He hasn't broken any criminal laws. Has he broken the laws of being a nice human being? Yeah, he has. So go ahead and call him an obnoxious jerk -- but don't say he's a criminal.

[Vegas_lover]

Has he broken the laws of being a nice human being? Yeah, he has. So go ahead and call him an obnoxious jerk -- but don't say he's a criminal.

For somebody who claims to be objective you draw conclusions very fast and unfortunately most of them are wrong. Please, I'm still waiting for a couple of answers. But as usual you seem to evade giving any answers as soon as you realize you jumped to conclusions again. Again (and this time don't ignore this because it's not convenient for you) tell me where did I say in this thread I hoped Rob wouldn't reply? And pretty please, explain to me how this thread is completely new and the content hasn't been discussed at lenght before (maybe in slightly different wording)?

Now a new question I'd like you to answer before you jump of your seat again to defend Rob: Where did I say Rob was a criminal? Last time I looked I only compaired his approach to the approach of Nigerian scammers. There's a difference you know. But your objectivity is blocking your view.

[Alan Mendelson]

Now a new question I'd like you to answer before you jump of your seat again to defend Rob: Where did I say Rob was a criminal? Last time I looked I only compaired his approach to the approach of Nigerian scammers. There's a difference you know. But you objectivity is blocking your view.

This is a new one for me: Nigerian scammers are not criminals?

[Vegas_lover]

This is a new one for me: Nigerian scammers are not criminals?

Oh so if some old time mobster uses the phrase "forget about it" and wears tailor made clothes, and I compare you to him because you use the same phrase and wear ditto clothes, that automatically makes you a criminal as well? Thanks for educating me! Are you really this? Never mind.

Again (and this time don't ignore this because it's not convenient for you) tell me where did I say in this thread I hoped Rob wouldn't reply? And pretty please, explain to me how this thread is completely new and the content hasn't been discussed at lenght before (maybe in slightly different wording)?