LUCK is almost EVERYTHING in Video Poker

[Alan Mendelson]

Vegas_lover do you understand what I am referring to when I talk about Nigerian scammers? It refers to the people who send out emails promising huge lottery winnings in return for a deposit showing good faith, or the repatriation of forgotten bank accounts, or similar "found money" schemes. I just want to make sure we are on the same page.

Secondly, it doesn't matter if we discussed this subject before. It doesn't matter if we discussed it five times before or ten times before. It doesn't have to be new. And if you don't like what's being discussed stay away... don't read it... don't post here.

There are several other forums that might be of more interest for you. May I suggest Wizard of Vegas, Las Vegas Advisor, and Open Vegas.

While you never said you hoped Rob wouldn't reply, I am sure you are hoping that either Rob would go away or I would block Rob. Well I am not blocking Rob, nor would I block Arcimedes, nor would I block you.

[Vegas_lover]

Vegas_lover do you understand what I am referring to when I talk about Nigerian scammers? It refers to the people who send out emails promising huge lottery winnings in return for a deposit showing good faith, or the repatriation of forgotten bank accounts, or similar "found money" schemes. I just want to make sure we are on the same page.

Secondly, it doesn't matter if we discussed this subject before. It doesn't matter if we discussed it five times before or ten times before. It doesn't have to be new. And if you don't like what's being discussed stay away... don't read it... don't post here.

There are several other forums that might be of more interest for you. May I suggest Wizard of Vegas, Las Vegas Advisor, and Open Vegas.

While you never said you hoped Rob wouldn't reply, I am sure you are hoping that either Rob would go away or I would block Rob. Well I am not blocking Rob, nor would I block Arcimedes, nor would I block you.

I've been around the block once or twice so you don't have to explain what those Nigerian scammers do. I get 100's of e-mails every day and run a healthy family business. I've received more than one of these great e-mails.

I know it doesn't matter to you that all of this has been discussed a zillion times. It's the only thing that keeps this ringy ding place going. So you really need the same old same old because otherwise, you've got nothing.

And since you won't block Rob, Arci or me, no need to get all aggitated with me acting like a troublemaker. Funny how you get so annoyed with my jabs while you continue to graciously take all the shit certain other people throw into your direction. So, I think I'll stick around for a while and annoy you some more. Gotta love that freedom of speech. Cheers!

[regnis]

VL--another arci or singer we don't need. Why not try using your intelligence to make a relevant point rather than imitate them.

[Vegas Vic]

VL--another arci or singer we don't need. Why not try using your intelligence to make a relevant point rather than imitate them.

Reg....beat me to it. I picked up this thread tonight at the point where I had last viewed it (at about page 3). As I moved through it, I noticed an additional and courtesy of VL...the very thing he was complaining about. He calls it "Freedom of speech" when he does it. "Same old same old" when others do it.

[Vegas_lover]

Reg....beat me to it. I picked up this thread tonight at the point where I had last viewed it (at about page 3). As I moved through it, I noticed an additional and courtesy of VL...the very thing he was complaining about. He calls it "Freedom of speech" when he does it. "Same old same old" when others do it.

Reg, Vic, thank you for noticing. That's exactly what I'm doing and for a good reason. Isn't it strange that when I do it, some people get all aggitated but when Singer or Arci does it, it doesn't really matter any more. Business as usual, we're used to it, etc.

I'm using the freedom of speech thing because Alan always pulls that card whenever he is confronted about what goes on around here. Alan still does not get the difference between freedom of speech and anarchy. And the few times he actually said he was going to help Singer and Arci tone it down because he was going to moderate and delete all the personal attacks he sticked to that for one or two posts. And than he changed his mind again.

Now, it's very easy to come back with 'It's Alan's forum and he decides what to do with it", which of course is true. But come on, is there really anybody participating here that isn't fed up with all the Singer-Arci nonsense?

I'll give you another example. This thread is the same old discussion all over again. I lost count. Alan actually says it doesn't matter to him. Now, if I'm going to post a new thread with the same subject every day and just change my position slightly or choose slightly different wording, how long do you think it's going to take before Alan is going to ask me to stop poluting his forum by posting the same question every day?

Alan even gives his own forum a G-rating. Doesn't anybody think that's disturbing? Especially when you take into account that little to no effort is being made to change this? Why does someone set up a forum and start running it into the ground from day one? That's beyond me.

[Alan Mendelson]

And the few times he actually said he was going to help Singer and Arci tone it down because he was going to moderate and delete all the personal attacks he sticked to that for one or two posts. And than he changed his mind again.

I didn't change my mind. I gave up. I thought one of them would take the high road, and then I could stop the other. I was wrong. As long as the two of them were "going at it" I had no choice but to let them continue. The rest of us... for the most part we just watched and chuckled. But you had a cow. LOL

is there really anybody participating here that isn't fed up with all the Singer-Arci nonsense?

Yes, the nonsense we can do without. Sometimes there is worthwhile discussion.

This thread is the same old discussion all over again. I lost count. Alan actually says it doesn't matter to him. Now, if I'm going to post a new thread with the same subject every day and just change my position slightly or choose slightly different wording, how long do you think it's going to take before Alan is going to ask me to stop poluting his forum by posting the same question every day?

Nope it's free and open. You can post freely and the same stuff over and over again. But be prepared to account for your claims and allegations. For example:
1. Why won't Rob Singer go back to the storage locker? Is Jimmy Hoffa buried there too?
2. Why can't Arc believe that Singer has more than one cell phone? Because there aren't enough cell phone towers in Minnesota?

Alan even gives his own forum a G-rating. Doesn't anybody think that's disturbing? Especially when you take into account that little to no effort is being made to change this? Why does someone set up a forum and start running it into the ground from day one? That's beyond me.

Well, it did have a G-rating Vegas_lover until you wrote this:

You give new meaning to the word asshole and not in a good way.

And this...

Yep, asshole written all over this again.

And this...

You're just addicted to being an asshole.

And several more like it.

Yep, I think you were the first. Thanks for the PG rating... or is it R now?

[arcimede$]

Alan, it's obvious you and a few others missed the point of the Nigerian analogy. The point is people who follow the advice of the scammers will lose money. Exactly the same situation as with people who follow the Singer strategy. You are giving the scammer a voice where people may be tempted to follow the scam to its inevitable conclusion.

What does Singer get? An ego boost. That's what it is all about for him. Remember, this is a man who failed at becoming an APer. He developed a hatred for those of us who are successful. His system is an attempt to regain lost esteem. Hence, his actions are not criminal but that doesn't change the fact that those who follow his scam are extremely likely to lose money just like those who follow the Nigerian scam.

You and you alone control the keys to the media here. You have been told that Singer's approach is worthless and been given access to a mathematical proof that demonstrates that fact. Hence, you are promoting a scam just as much as if you promoted the Nigerian scam.

[regnis]

Vegas-I get your point--but although we are all sick of the Arci-Singer stuff, there is from time to time some funny stuff there.

As to you--my mommy always told me 2 wrongs don't make a right. You're smart enough to comment without resorting to their crap.

On a separate note, I finally had a royal yesterday--only my 3rd lifetime and first in 3 years. Unfortuneately, I was only killing 20 minutes b4 a free slot tournament and just playing for quarters (which I never play anymore). The interesting thing, and remember this thread started out with claims about luck, is that I was playing a horrible 7-5 DDB game, and I accidently threw away a pair of 7's and held AK spades. and drew the royal. So I failed on proper play and strategy and was rewarded. Maybe that 95% LUCK ain't so far off.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, you continue to use the words "Singer" and "scammer" in the same sentence. Prove that he is a scammer or stop it once and for all.

I don't think Rob's strategy is totally worthless. For the most part I don't follow his special plays. I do embrace his ideas about win goals and loss limits. So, we disagree.

[Vegas_lover]

Yes, the nonsense we can do without.

Thank God we agree on that



But be prepared to account for your claims and allegations.
Besides claiming Rob is an obnoxious jerk (that's better right?) I haven't claimed anything. I do think his approach is highly questionable and something I would never recommend to others.



Well, it did have a G-rating Vegas_lover until you wrote this:
And this...
And this...

I'm glad obnoxious jerk is better.

And thank God that all the things he has said about your gambling addiction and the medical situation Arci's wife is in aren't nearly as disgusting

Let's just leave it at that.

Regnis, I am smart enough and used this approach on purpose. It's sad to see that when I do it, it gets noticed followed with disapproval but when Singer and Arci continue everybody seems to be numb. That's a troubling development.

[redietz]

It was clear immediately that Vegas Lover was making a point by emulating Singer's posting style.

And I think the point Arci is making is, "Does Alan's allowing Rob carte blanche with his gambling claims likely do harm to a forum audience?" I think almost every professional mathematician would say yes. Alan hasn't chosen to ask his local professional mathematicians. Draw your own conclusions.

I suspect that Mr. Argentino's favorite crutch, karma, will bite he and his family down the road.

[Vegas_lover]

It was clear immediately that Vegas Lover was making a point by emulating Singer's posting style.

And I think the point Arci is making is, "Does Alan's allowing Rob carte blanche with his gambling claims likely do harm to a forum audience?" I think almost every professional mathematician would say yes. Alan hasn't chosen to ask his local professional mathematicians. Draw your own conclusions.

I suspect that Mr. Argentino's favorite crutch, karma, will bite he and his family down the road.

I take my hat off for you sir. I'm glad to see there are still some sensible people around here. We might not always agree on everything but that's no problem

From a math 'point of view' Arci does make a lot of sense. When it comes to insults, hyjacking threads and all other undesirable things, there's only one champ around here and it's not a pretty sight.

[arcimede$]

Arc, you continue to use the words "Singer" and "scammer" in the same sentence. Prove that he is a scammer or stop it once and for all.

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/unfair.htm

Once again here is the PROOF. You do understand what the word "proof" means, right? It's an absolute fact that Singer is promoting a system that will not work and you are allowing him to do that.

I don't think Rob's strategy is totally worthless. For the most part I don't follow his special plays. I do embrace his ideas about win goals and loss limits. So, we disagree.

Sorry, the win/loss goals also don't change anything. So, it doesn't matter if you embrace nonsense, it's still nonsense. This is not a subject where agreement is a factor. I have provided you 100%, absolute proof that Singer's system is worthless. And, you are allowing the mathematically challenged people who visit your forum to be scammed. Do the right thing.

[Alan Mendelson]

Thanks for posting guys. But where has Rob Singer ever said "the math" is not correct? We have done "battle" over this question many times. Rob has never denied the "math" of the game, and he has never told me anything that says the "math" of the game is not correct. He even cites the math correctly in discussing his special plays.

What he has told me is that if he plays the game differently and "gets lucky" he will win more. He has also said that if he "times" his exits from the game properly (his win goal system) he will win more. None of that violates "the math" of the game, unless you want to say that "luck" is not part of the math, and "leaving the game" is not part of the math? And if you do, I have no disagreement and I'm guessing Rob won't disagree either.

That brings us to the core question: did he win more and is it because he did get lucky? And that my friends sums up the whole enchilada, magillah, and story.

If you want to challenge Rob's math, challenge how he balances out his wins and losses, because that's the only math to challenge here guys.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, I don't pass judgment on Rob's system. You do, and you can. I just present it for everyone to consider on their own.

My only concern here is that people keep the facts in the conversation and debate correct.

I know you say his system should not work. Yet Rob reports he won nearly a million dollars. So the way it appears to me the tale goes like this:

Rob Singer played a system that shouldn't work but he won a million dollars. And everyone lived happily ever after.

[Vegas_lover]

Alan, please tell me how many times Rob has stated he has won all that money BECAUSE of his system? How can his system overcome a negative EV game, consistantly over a period of ten years? How come Rob claims people will win consistantly when they play according to his system? And adding up all of this, please tell me how Rob isn't challanging the math? Either he is or he isn't. You can't have it both ways or we have to conclude you're mathimatically challenged. So in other words, Rob has constantly challenged the math of the game as I look at it. He cites the math correctly in discussing his special plays but at the same time his results violate the math principles completely. To me, that's wanting to have it both ways.

And on a different note: how come you're so surprised when people challenge you for endorsing Rob's system when you go out of your way so often to defend Rob's statements even when he's contradicting himself in more than one ways?

If 95% of his play is based on Optimal Play (in other words, based on the math principles) and he only uses special plays in about 5% of all hands. How come Rob states AP-ers can only lose (even when they are playing positive EV games) and Rob constantly wins even when he's playing negative games? Please do explain this, based on mathimatical facts. Please use your own mathimatical knowledge and don't ask Rob to answer this one. We already know his position in the matter.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, please tell me how many times Rob has stated he has won all that money BECAUSE of his system? How can his system overcome a negative EV game, consistantly over a period of ten years? How come Rob claims people will win consistantly when they play according to his system? And adding up all of this, please tell me how Rob isn't challaging the math? Either he is or he isn't. You can't have it both ways or we have to conclude you're mathimatically challenged. So in other words, Rob has constantly denied the math of the game as I look at it. He cites the math correctly in discussing his special plays but at the same time his results violate the math principles completely. To me, that's wanting to have it both ways.

And on a different note: how come you're so surprised when people challenge you for endorsing Rob's system when you go out of your way so often to defend Rob's statements even when he's contradicting himself in more than one ways?

If 95% of his play is based on Optimal Play (in other words, based on the math principles) and he only uses special plays in about 5% of all hands. How come Rob states AP-ers can only lose (even when they are playing positive EV games) and Rob constantly wins even when he's playing negative games. Please do explain this, based on mathimatical facts. Please use you own mathimatical knowledge and don't ask Rob to answer this one. We already know his position in the matter.

You're right, Rob claims to have won using his system. So if you think he didn't then you have to challenge his income and tax statements.

However, let me point out that even Arc has said it is possible for Rob to have won, but not likely that he won.

So what would you like to do now, Vegas_lover? Those are the facts. And let me sum it up for you again:

Rob Singer says he won nearly a million dollars using his "system."
The "math" says such a win is unlikely.

There, that's it.

Now, would you like to discuss how Bob Dancer keeps throwing thousands of dollars at promotions that he loses?

[Vegas_lover]

Why don't you try to come up with real answers to the questions I'm asking? No more evasions, just real answers. I'm not asking for tax statements, I'm looking for your math knowledge. I know Arci said it is possible Rob won that money with his system. Arci, Redietz and I probably all know how small chances are his wins came because of his system. My statement, anybody could have won that kind of money without any system, Chances are really really small, but it's possible. Is it probable that this will happen consistantly over a period of 10 years? I don't think so. All those shiny buildings weren't built on enthousiasm.

If I tell you I won 11,000,000 on Megabucks because I did the chicken dance every time I pushed the button and spit in my neighbor's drink would you believe I won that money BECAUSE of the chicken dance and the spitting? Or would you be convinced I was just one lucky bastard? If it's the latter, do you understand how small chances are somebody wins consistantly for 10 years BECAUSE OF A SYSTEM that challenges the math and reduces the EV of the game? You know, the same math that makes these casinos all that money and the same math that makes all those AP-ers lose their shirts on positive EV games? Try to come up with an insightful, factual answer.

Why do you feel the urge to bring in Bob Dancer? I don't see Bob Dancer active on this forum, patting himself on the back constantly. Stick to the system you choose to broadcast, it seems to be difficult enough.

[Alan Mendelson]

You should be asking Rob Singer your questions. I have no answers for you. I just tell you what he told me and what I've experienced myself.

[Vegas_lover]

You should be asking Rob Singer your questions. I have no answers for you. I just tell you what he told me and what I've experienced myself.

How convenient. Let me make a suggestion, don't respond to anything that's being discussed about Rob's system. You do it all the time and as soon as you don't know the answers (because you don't really understand the math) we have to ask Rob because you're 'just a reporter'. If you're just a reporter, tell the story and let others do the discussing. This is part of the reason why it often looks as if you're endorsing Rob's system. You discuss every aspect of it, but as soon as it starts to be too difficult for you, you play the reporter's card: "Back to you Rob".

You don't even have an answer to the second part of my post? That part shouldn't be too difficult to figure out? You have enough VP experience to be able to answer those questions.