Ok, I've got all the "in the know" people here....

[arcimede$]

That makes no sense arci. It's always you who claims one hand means nothing unless you lump it in with every hand you've ever played. Of course the strong player tries to hit a session win goal....so he can quit. I've always said that also. Your confusion about the special plays is obviously behind your inconsistent rants, because you've never really understood the math behind them. Like I've suggested: you need a new slide rule.

Methinks the laughing is a product of you putting on those spectacles and having a good look around.

What math is it that you understand? It must be one where having less chance of hitting your win goal is a better play because that is exactly what most of your special plays accomplish. And, unlike you I provide the logic behind my analysis. You, on the other hand, try to assert you know what your doing but provide no evidence whatsoever. Anyone with half a brain can see you're lying. If you had any evidence you would post it. Something about last October comes to mind.

[arcimede$]

I don't understand this. The win goal that Rob talks about is always based on the one hand that is presented to you with a special play. You said he has created something new? What is it that he has created that's "new." I thought this was his plan the entire time?

What's new, Alan, is that hitting a win goal is no longer the most important thing.

[Alan Mendelson]

Of course you can. It's simple math.

Arc, it might have been the wrong play according to the math, but the reality is the guy hit quad Kings. This really happened. And when the guy was gloating I said to him "I saw what you did. Good for you." In all honesty, how could you say what he did was wrong when he has $1250 to show he was right.

Now, if he had missed the quad Kings but he had made the full house with the smaller pair he would have been out $200. He still had his pair of kings worth $25. Playing $5 DDB (at the time it was a 9/5 game, now it's 8/5) an extra $200 is not going to make much difference to you. Either you hit big or you get wiped out.

Holding the 3 aces is the correct play in DDB.

Yes it is, but I was referring to Aces and Faces when there is a pretty good argument to just hold the three aces. Only once did I break up a full house with three aces and that one and only time I happen to hit the quad for $2K... and I needed it.

By the way... Rob... you never responded to this question:

On my last trip to Caesars playing a 50-line 7/5 $1 Bonus game I was dealt AAATT. It paid $1750. I held the full house, but I thought about dumping the tens, but realized I would need three quad aces to win more than the dealt $1750. What would you have done on this 50-play game???

[Alan Mendelson]

What's new, Alan, is that hitting a win goal is no longer the most important thing.

I don't understand where Rob said that.

Rob??

[Rob.Singer]

Rob I don't think it has anything to do with slot club fluff or your other usual rants against advantage play, but I concede that I see a lot of players holding only the paying pair in double double bonus for the chance at the quads. I can't sit there, however, and say "you're making the wrong play" because the one time I wanted to the player next to me holding a pair of kings with a small pair held only the kings and drew the quads. He called himself a genius. How can you say he made the wrong play when he had just won $1250 ?? In other words, you can't argue with getting lucky.

I honestly think you have a better argument when dealt three aces with a full house in games where aces pay some sort of bonus, even in Bonus Poker and Aces and Faces. In Bonus you would always hold the two pair, of course. In double double bonus I guess it's a toss-up. But I still wouldn't do it.

The Aces argument only seems better because it has an overall better reward, but these other quads that pay 600, 800, or even 400 easily found their way into the special plays because of their potential contributions to the session-ending win goals. In a structured strategy, you don't just work with the best and toss the rest--and as you've seen in the videos there are quite a few others also--similar to how many AP's work the seemingly insignificant penalty card angle. In a successful strategy every move has a purpose, whether it be to win and go home like mine, or to play a statistics game at home on your computer and pretend it works like the book says it will throughout infinity, at a casino session.

Good luck: you can't have a good life without it. Just ask my buddy

[Rob.Singer]

I don't understand where Rob said that.

Rob??

Of course I haven't said that. It's arci getting lost trying to argue something for the sake of argument.

[arcimede$]

Arc, it might have been the wrong play according to the math, but the reality is the guy hit quad Kings. This really happened. And when the guy was gloating I said to him "I saw what you did. Good for you." In all honesty, how could you say what he did was wrong when he has $1250 to show he was right.

Now, if he had missed the quad Kings but he had made the full house with the smaller pair he would have been out $200. He still had his pair of kings worth $25. Playing $5 DDB (at the time it was a 9/5 game, now it's 8/5) an extra $200 is not going to make much difference to you. Either you hit big or you get wiped out.

Alan, I'm simply pointing out the long term value. Like I said, I wouldn't comment to the guy. Look, he is going to hit the quad once in every 360 tries. Just because you happen to see one of those does not make it the right play.

Yes it is, but I was referring to Aces and Faces when there is a pretty good argument to just hold the three aces. Only once did I break up a full house with three aces and that one and only time I happen to hit the quad for $2K... and I needed it.

Yes, you've mentioned that several times.

[arcimede$]

I don't understand where Rob said that.

Rob??

He said that when he started to babble about a single hand being the focus. Of course, in the past he has always claimed that his system is built around reaching a win goal and going home. So, what is it?

[Alan Mendelson]

Just because you happen to see one of those does not make it the right play.

Absolutely agree.

[slingshot]

Arc, it might have been the wrong play according to the math, but the reality is the guy hit quad Kings. This really happened. And when the guy was gloating I said to him "I saw what you did. Good for you." In all honesty, how could you say what he did was wrong when he has $1250 to show he was right.

Now, if he had missed the quad Kings but he had made the full house with the smaller pair he would have been out $200. He still had his pair of kings worth $25. Playing $5 DDB (at the time it was a 9/5 game, now it's 8/5) an extra $200 is not going to make much difference to you. Either you hit big or you get wiped out.



Yes it is, but I was referring to Aces and Faces when there is a pretty good argument to just hold the three aces. Only once did I break up a full house with three aces and that one and only time I happen to hit the quad for $2K... and I needed it.

By the way... Rob... you never responded to this question:

On my last trip to Caesars playing a 50-line 7/5 $1 Bonus game I was dealt AAATT. It paid $1750. I held the full house, but I thought about dumping the tens, but realized I would need three quad aces to win more than the dealt $1750. What would you have done on this 50-play game???

the fact that you took the time to think it out. Most just respond from strategy cards or whatever.

[Rob.Singer]

Arc, it might have been the wrong play according to the math, but the reality is the guy hit quad Kings. This really happened. And when the guy was gloating I said to him "I saw what you did. Good for you." In all honesty, how could you say what he did was wrong when he has $1250 to show he was right.

Now, if he had missed the quad Kings but he had made the full house with the smaller pair he would have been out $200. He still had his pair of kings worth $25. Playing $5 DDB (at the time it was a 9/5 game, now it's 8/5) an extra $200 is not going to make much difference to you. Either you hit big or you get wiped out.



Yes it is, but I was referring to Aces and Faces when there is a pretty good argument to just hold the three aces. Only once did I break up a full house with three aces and that one and only time I happen to hit the quad for $2K... and I needed it.

By the way... Rob... you never responded to this question:

On my last trip to Caesars playing a 50-line 7/5 $1 Bonus game I was dealt AAATT. It paid $1750. I held the full house, but I thought about dumping the tens, but realized I would need three quad aces to win more than the dealt $1750. What would you have done on this 50-play game???

I would have held the FH. I don't play above five play, and I'm assuming if I did then win goals or special plays wouldn't be a part of the session. However, if the game were 10/7 DB, I'd definitely hold only the Aces because nowhere does it state that you can't get at least 3 quad Aces in such a scenario. In fact, anyone who holds the FH is a very weak player. Everyone who plays that game in single line format, including AP's, would die to have a 3 Aces draw, and they know those possible 7 additional hands (possible because you can still get another FH) have little opportunity to see another 3 Ace deal.

[Rob.Singer]

Absolutely agree.

I don't agree. You absolutely did make the right play. You can never judge if a play is correct or not until your machine responds. It is only the result that counts--not prior theory or expected return or any of that BS. Many people blindly play highly -EV games like the lottery all the time--AND WIN! So did they make the "right play" as they collected their millions....or was the "right play" not to play?