Why Won't Alan Consult a Mathematician?

[arcimede$]

Can't have it both ways. If I have been rolling the dice for 5 minutes or 20 minutes or an hour, the odds of me throwing a 7 on the next roll are the same, and they are the same on every roll thereafter.

I certainly never said anything different. However, you didn't cover all the situations. You can compute the odds of throwing a 7 in multiple throws. That is what I've been pointing out. When looking in the future you can look at the probabilities covering multiple events.

[Alan Mendelson]

You an compute the odds of throwing a 7 in multiple throws. That is what I've been pointing out. When looking in the future you can look at the probabilities covering multiple events.

Since when?

The odds of throwing a seven are one in 6, no matter how many rolls you want to compute. I can't believe you are saying this Arc? You should rewrite the gamblers fallacy.

[arcimede$]

Hold on, Arc, you didn't answer my question.

So let me try one more time, and also your friend redietz might also want to respond to this:

Do the odds of getting four of a kind improve the more hands of video poker you play?
Do the odds of getting a royal flush improve the more hands of video poker you play?
Do the odds of rolling a 7 in craps improve the more times you roll the dice?

Alan, you are asking ambiguous questions which is why you are confused. You have to be specific. If you are not specific the answers are undefined. That is, there is no answer.

For example, when you say "Do the odds of getting four of a kind improve the more hands of video poker you play?" you didn't specify whether you meant (1) for each individual hand played or (2) over all the hands played. The answer to (1) is no, and the answer to (2) is yes.

[arcimede$]

Since when?

The odds of throwing a seven are one in 6, no matter how many rolls you want to compute. I can't believe you are saying this Arc? You should rewrite the gamblers fallacy.

Alan, one of these days you will learn to read. Until then I suggest you avoid anything that requires reading for comprehension. I never said the odds change for a single roll of the dice. Look what I said. I specifically stated multiple rolls of the dice.

Here let's make this as simple as possible. What are the odds of throwing at least one head in two flips of a coin? Alan, show your work.

[redietz]

That was good, Arci. That's what we need --- Alan, show your work. Rob, show your work.

Honest to God, I think Alan and Rob are just getting a good horselaugh out of your patience, Spock's precision, and my bewilderment.

Somewhere deep in Faber College, Blutarsky figures he could make a mathematical contribution to this forum.

[Alan Mendelson]

Well, Arc, thats all we are talking about, the single roll of the dice. If you want to start talking about your theoretical long term whatevers keep doing it. But when we play in a casino it is one roll at a time, one spin at a time, one draw at a time, one deal at a time. In fact, it's only one lifetime at a time.

[a2a3dseddie]

Well, Arc, thats all we are talking about, the single roll of the dice. If you want to start talking about your theoretical long term whatevers keep doing it. But when we play in a casino it is one roll at a time, one spin at a time, one draw at a time, one deal at a time. In fact, it's only one lifetime at a time.

Alan,

Sure the odds of a single event occurring, like rolling a 7 in craps will always be 1 in 6 or 5 to 1 against happening. Red and Arc are merely stating that the odds or probability of something occurring like rolling a 7 increase when you roll more than 1 time. Ask yourself, is it more likely a 7 will appear within 1 roll of the dice or 10 rolls?

[Alan Mendelson]

It doesn't matter. Each roll is independent, unless you think the dice have a memory? Do you think the dice say to themselves... gee, it's time for a seven??

[a2a3dseddie]

On several other threads, I threw this out there but both you Alan and Rob have avoided discussing it.

On all VP machines the eventual EV (and casino profit if the machine is -EV) is determined by ALL play on that machine. All the sessions, every single hand. Some of the sessions played on the machines will be profitable for the players, and some will be profitable for the casino. If you play a -EV machine, all the millions of hands played by all the players on that machine combine to make a profit for the casino. So, once again, how can any strategy ensure only you will play the profitable sessions, and leave all the losing sessions for other players to suffer through?

[a2a3dseddie]

It doesn't matter. Each roll is independent, unless you think the dice have a memory? Do you think the dice say to themselves... gee, it's time for a seven??

No Alan, I still don't think you understand what they are saying. Let me try to re-phrase it.

The "Any 7" bet in craps is a 1 roll bet right? It's a high house edge bet that only pays 4 to 1 right? Let's say a casino offers the "Any 7" bet at 4 to 1 but the bet stays up for 10 rolls. Wouldn't you like this bet a lot more and wouldn't the casino eventually go broke offering it?

[Rob.Singer]

Horselaugh is right, redietz! The funniest part is watching arci backpeddal after realizing he goofed, then submitting multiple answers to multiple situations when cornered. And, of course, that roped redietz into his land of confusion, since he had no other way out.

Let's all confer with Ward Churchill on this. He used to be the master of disguising the truth.

[Rob.Singer]

On several other threads, I threw this out there but both you Alan and Rob have avoided discussing it.

On all VP machines the eventual EV (and casino profit if the machine is -EV) is determined by ALL play on that machine. All the sessions, every single hand. Some of the sessions played on the machines will be profitable for the players, and some will be profitable for the casino. If you play a -EV machine, all the millions of hands played by all the players on that machine combine to make a profit for the casino. So, once again, how can any strategy ensure only you will play the profitable sessions, and leave all the losing sessions for other players to suffer through?

Not sure about Alan, but I'm busy most days leading a normal and active life, so I may miss some posts or questions.

Your first error is by insinuating -EV machines always make a profit for casinos, and +EV machines don't. I investigated that AP claim several times on and off the Strip, and NO CASINO ever keeps any loser on the floor. So all those AP-sacred FPDW & 10/6 DDBP etc. machines out there? THEY ARE NOT ATM WITHDRAWAL MACHINES FOR THE "EXPERTS". And I listed plenty of incidences over my 8 yrs. writing for GT where so-called -EV machines were pulled from various casino floors because they were losing the casinos' money.

On your question, once you understand the aforementioned you'll see that it is only the machines that ever experience the "long-term", so it's completely possible that the smart goal-setting player can regularly walk away from ANY machine with some kind of profit. Just keep this most important edict of vp players in mind as you continue your education process on this subject: NO HAND HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH ANY HAND THAT HAS COME BEFORE OR HAS YET TO COME; AND THE SAME GOES FOR INDIVIDUAL PLAY SESSIONS.

[a2a3dseddie]

Not sure about Alan, but I'm busy most days leading a normal and active life, so I may miss some posts or questions.

Your first error is by insinuating -EV machines always make a profit for casinos, and +EV machines don't. I investigated that AP claim several times on and off the Strip, and NO CASINO ever keeps any loser on the floor. So all those AP-sacred FPDW & 10/6 DDBP etc. machines out there? THEY ARE NOT ATM WITHDRAWAL MACHINES FOR THE "EXPERTS". And I listed plenty of incidences over my 8 yrs. writing for GT where so-called -EV machines were pulled from various casino floors because they were losing the casinos' money.

On your question, once you understand the aforementioned you'll see that it is only the machines that ever experience the "long-term", so it's completely possible that the smart goal-setting player can regularly walk away from ANY machine with some kind of profit. Just keep this most important edict of vp players in mind as you continue your education process on this subject: NO HAND HAS ANYTHING TO DO WITH ANY HAND THAT HAS COME BEFORE OR HAS YET TO COME; AND THE SAME GOES FOR INDIVIDUAL PLAY SESSIONS.

Thanks for your reply Rob. I do understand that each hand in VP is independent of the one that came before it. I also know that anyone on any day can pull a profit out of any machine. I do have a problem though with thinking someone could do this enough times to turn a net yearly profit and make a living out of playing these -EV machines.

[Alan Mendelson]

No Alan, I still don't think you understand what they are saying. Let me try to re-phrase it.

The "Any 7" bet in craps is a 1 roll bet right? It's a high house edge bet that only pays 4 to 1 right? Let's say a casino offers the "Any 7" bet at 4 to 1 but the bet stays up for 10 rolls. Wouldn't you like this bet a lot more and wouldn't the casino eventually go broke offering it?

Do you play craps? I didn't think so. The any 7 bet is indeed a one-roll high house-edge bet that few players make. It is an exotic bet.
If you are a "right way player" and a 7-rolls on the come out you win, and if a 7 appears after the come out rolll all of your bets on all numbers except the 7 lose.

This is why craps is a negative expectation game. There are more ways to roll a 7 than any other number and there is only a small opportunity to win with the 7. And for the "don't players" the house maintains its "edge" because the payoffs are lower than for right-way players.

But we digress. This has nothing to do with Arc's claim and convoluted math. Craps is a game that is played ONE ROLL at a time. And on any given roll of the dice the 7 can appear one out of six times. Sure, he can say whatever he wants about long term probabilities but they are meaningless at the game table. And the reason why is that most (but not the passline) of your bets can be removed at any time.

If I recall, Arc never played craps in his life.

[arcimede$]

Well, Arc, thats all we are talking about, the single roll of the dice. If you want to start talking about your theoretical long term whatevers keep doing it. But when we play in a casino it is one roll at a time, one spin at a time, one draw at a time, one deal at a time. In fact, it's only one lifetime at a time.

No Alan. That is not what I've been talking about. And, no, this has nothing to do with long term. BTW, did you forget one session at a time? Is that different than one hand?

Alan, I'm still waiting ... What is the probability of getting at least one head in two flips of a coin. Show your work.

[Alan Mendelson]

Each roll of the dice in craps is independent of the previous roll, or the roll that will follow it. The dice have no memory, they have no consciousness, they cannot be programmed. You cannot predict what the next roll of the dice will be.

Do you agree?

[Alan Mendelson]

What is the probability of getting at least one head in two flips of a coin. Show your work.

It's 50-50. And the chance of getting a 7 on the next roll of the dice is one out of six.

[a2a3dseddie]

Do you play craps? I didn't think so. The any 7 bet is indeed a one-roll high house-edge bet that few players make. It is an exotic bet.
If you are a "right way player" and a 7-rolls on the come out you win, and if a 7 appears after the come out rolll all of your bets on all numbers except the 7 lose.

This is why craps is a negative expectation game. There are more ways to roll a 7 than any other number and there is only a small opportunity to win with the 7. And for the "don't players" the house maintains its "edge" because the payoffs are lower than for right-way players.

But we digress. This has nothing to do with Arc's claim and convoluted math. Craps is a game that is played ONE ROLL at a time. And on any given roll of the dice the 7 can appear one out of six times. Sure, he can say whatever he wants about long term probabilities but they are meaningless at the game table. And the reason why is that most (but not the passline) of your bets can be removed at any time.

If I recall, Arc never played craps in his life.

Yes Alan, I do play craps. You didn't seem to understand Arc's and Red's and everyone else's explanation, so I thought using craps as an example would be easier for you. Re-read what I wrote. I know you're going to say that the "Any 7" roll doesn't work like that...It was merely a thought exercise to show you that the number 7 would have a greater chance to appear within 10 rolls of the dice than on just 1 roll.

[a2a3dseddie]

Each roll of the dice in craps is independent of the previous roll, or the roll that will follow it. The dice have no memory, they have no consciousness, they cannot be programmed. You cannot predict what the next roll of the dice will be.

Do you agree?

Yes I agree. Now, What are the chances that you'll roll a 7 if you must roll the dice 10 times?

[a2a3dseddie]

It's 50-50. And the chance of getting a 7 on the next roll of the dice is one out of six.

No Alan. You flip the coin twice. The results could be: H-H, H-T, T-H, T-T. Therefore the chances that you will get at least 1 head if you flip the coin twice is 75%

Is that right Arc? My badminton game was cancelled tonight so I guess I'll spend it here arguing with you guys.