Is Las Vegas Real Estate really recovering?

[Alan Mendelson]

Is Las Vegas real estate really recovering? We keep hearing about better sales rates and higher prices but when you look at how prices today compare to prices of a year ago or during the peak of the housing rush in Vegas you have to ask has there really been a recovery?

Look at the latest numbers from the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. These were sent to me last week:

*Existing home prices in Southern Nevada are now nearly 31 percent higher than they were one year ago.

*But median home prices are just over half-way back to the $315,000 peak hit in 2006

*The median price of single-family homes sold in April was $167,000, up 3.7 percent from $161,000 in March and up 30.6 percent from $127,900 one year ago.

*The median price of condominiums and townhomes sold in April was $85,000, up 6.1 percent from $80,150 in March and up 41.9 percent from $59,900 one year ago.

*A danger sign that shows the true frailty of the market is that in April, 32.5 percent of all existing local home sales were short sales.

*The GLVAR said the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in April was 3,789 and down from 3,924 total sales in April 2012.

*GLVAR reported 3,161 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 24.1 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,261 properties listed without offers in April represented an 8.6 percent increase from one year ago.

So how do you view the market now? The economy is still fragile. The casino business is still fragile, and manufacturing still is weak nationwide.

[Dan Druff]

I would stay away, but the relatively low prices at the moment carry far less of a danger to investors than there was at the 2006-2007 peak.

Definitely stay away from condos, unless you get a bargain. There are enough condos to satisfy demand until 2025, according to certain studies. Condos are also most susceptible to huge price dips. Also, condos complexes can change quickly. The nice, upscale condo complex of today could be a hotel or short-term-rental flophouse of tomorrow.

Right now you can actually get a good buy on renting houses, as many bought up Vegas homes at "bargain" prices, and now have the properties up for rent.

[anthonysweeney]

Las Vegas Real estates market will show rising prices in all sectors,especially luxury condos and high rise condos since rocketing home prices are spreading to other sectors.

[Alan Mendelson]

Dan what do you know about Vegas properties for retirement living? I'm thinking that with prices low as they are it's got to make the Vegas area better for retirement budgets? I remember back in the 1990s many of my neighbors from here in LA who were nearing retirement age were selling their LA homes and moving to Vegas. Could this be the right time again?

anthonysweeney, thanks for joining us. I am a former Miamian -- and worked for WTVJ from 1981 to 1987 so I know the Sunny Isles area well, along with Aventura. I lived in Kendall, however, when I was in Miami. I regularly get the reports from Condo Vultures about the condo market in South Florida and the picture is mixed. While developers are planning and building new units, there are still hundreds of units that were built during the boom of 5 years ago that still aren't sold and are vacant. Maybe you could give us some updates on the Miami-area market? Thanks.

[Dan Druff]

Dan what do you know about Vegas properties for retirement living? I'm thinking that with prices low as they are it's got to make the Vegas area better for retirement budgets? I remember back in the 1990s many of my neighbors from here in LA who were nearing retirement age were selling their LA homes and moving to Vegas. Could this be the right time again?

I think the Vegas home prices are done crashing (at least for awhile), and while they may not appreciate that much, they're probably a safe buy at this point.

You can get a LOT more home in Vegas than you would in LA for the same money.

I will warn you that Vegas has a lot of downsides to it, and enjoying living there is NOT the same as enjoying visiting as a tourist. I've done both. It can be a depressing place, even if you're not a gambler. Crime is worse in Vegas than many realize, especially property crime. Health care is not particularly good there, at least by big city standards.

LA transplants may also hate the summer and winter. The summer is brutally hot in July and August, while the winter is surprisingly cool and windy between December and February. Spring and fall (especially spring) are beautiful in Vegas, where you'll find some of the best weather in the country. It's not uncommon in late April, for example, to have an 85 daytime high and mid-70s throughout the evening.

[Alan Mendelson]

My wife has family living in Summerlin and Henderson which I think are beautiful suburban areas. Would you include those areas among those with higher crime?
And you're right about health care. She has a cousin who comes to LA for specialists.

[Dan Druff]

My wife has family living in Summerlin and Henderson which I think are beautiful suburban areas. Would you include those areas among those with higher crime?
And you're right about health care. She has a cousin who comes to LA for specialists.

Those areas are fine, for the most part, but the problem with Vegas is that it's relatively small, so there isn't a lot separating the good from the bad.

Fortunately I have not had any major health problems (in Vegas or otherwise), but my few experiences in Vegas were pretty LOL.

I have noticed that a lot of the specialists get together in "groups", which causes you to end up at a large, impersonal office with long waits and doctors rushing through the diagnoses.

I remember in 2010, when I ended up with pink eye, I went to an opthamologist there. Again, it was part of some giant optometry/opthomology center, and I waited a staggering 90 minutes past my appointment time before I got seen. When the doctor finally made it into my examination room, he introduced himself and asked, "How are you?"

I said something like, "Pretty long waits today, huh?"

And he snapped at me with some nasty retort as if I had just insulted his mother.

Then he rushed through the diagnosis and prescribed me some drops, "just in case" I had bacteria rather than viral pink eye (even though all of the signs pointed to viral).

I had another doctor's office (a dermatologist) demand all of my insurance info three weeks in advance, which I provided. Then they screwed up checking my insurance and didn't bother telling me before I came in. When I showed up for my appointment, they hadn't yet verified it, so they demanded $150 in advance payment before I could be seen. I told them absolutely not, and left the office.

Come to think of it, I never had a good health care experience in Vegas. All of my experiences there ranged from bad to mediocre.

[Alan Mendelson]

Bill and Fran specialize in the Green Valley/Henderson area of the Las Vegas Valley. They have years of experience selling homes throughout the Las Vegas Valley. Bill and Fran have helped relocation buyers from out of state

So here's the obvious question: what are Bill and Fran finding about buyers and sellers and pricing? Is the demand there for prices to keep going up? Are more families likely to sell soon and will that put a damper on prices? I'd love to hear from agents in the trenches.

[Alan Mendelson]

New report shows that home prices in Las Vegas area in September fell for the first time in 19 months. See: http://alanbestbuys.com/id205.html

The Realtors group there says the market is cooling.