Warning to Forum Readers -- Gambling Credentials

[Alan Mendelson]

But I do agree with Red that the belief that a casino would get fined a significant amount and/or lose its license is fairy tale. The state, city, municipality---whatever--that relies on the casino revenue is not going to bite the hand that feeds it.

What both of you seem to be overlooking is that the casino business is competitive, and no one casino and no one slot maker dominates the industry. So if one casino has rigged machines or if one slot maker is making rigged machines I am sure there is no way that the regulators would protect them when there are other competitors ready and I am sure willing and able to take up the slack.

If for example Casino X knew that Casino Y were cheating, don't you think Casino X would be bringing on the pressure? And the same with VP Maker A if they found out that VP Maker B had a problem with its machines -- don't you think Company A would be raising holy hell?

As long as the market is competitive, and as long as government officials are either elected or appointed, they will be looking over their shoulders to be sure they do the right thing. Only rarely do the bad guys get away with it -- and not for long.

Let's be realistic here. Rob has been making these same allegations for years and so far they've gotten no where. Why?

[redietz]

"Only rarely do the bad guys get away with it." Yowza. Talk about statements that can't be falsified. Alan appears to be of the opinion that "bad guys" rarely being caught means they rarely get away with anything. Gag me with a spoon.

[regnis]

So Red--you keep dancing around this. Do you think the RNG is in fact random or not. And if not, is it malfunction or intentional.

[Alan Mendelson]

"Only rarely do the bad guys get away with it." Yowza. Talk about statements that can't be falsified. Alan appears to be of the opinion that "bad guys" rarely being caught means they rarely get away with anything. Gag me with a spoon.

You misinterpreted. What you should be thinking is this: there are few bad guys who do few bad things. This is why I don't think there is any conspiracy to have non random video poker machines. It is also why on the Wizard's forum I fought with those who suggest there is a conspiracy to use biased dice on craps games and that the casinos and the employees and dice makers are all part of the conspiracy to manufacture and use biased dice.

I dont believe any of this crap. There is no reason for anyone to cheat when they can make money legally. And if there were biased dice and non random video poker machines, someone in the world besides the couple of fanatics on the Wizard forum who talk about biased dice, and Rob Singer who talks about VP machines here, would have said something. The silence of everyone else is deafening.

[slingshot]

There's a lot of differnece-and it fit's into the casino's hold, take, and staying legal.

[Alan Mendelson]

Slingshot, I'm sorry but I really don't understand what you are talking about with "simulated randomness." To me the system is either random or it isn't. If it's "simulated" then does that mean it's made to look like it's random but it really isn't? Pleases explain this to me.

Also, you keep talking about the "casino's hold." This is a term which is better suited for slot machines and not video poker. The hold or profit from video poker is determined by the pay table only. If you don't believe that are you saying they program video poker machines to only hit a certain number of winners?

[Rob.Singer]

I'm shaking my head in disbelief Alan. You actually do believe the caSINo industry does not sin and does everything related to the vp machines according to the book because they make "enough" money "legally"! Phew!! And I'll bet you think no one in the Obama Administration has broken any laws, the murder of 4 Americans in Benghazi was "unfortunate" and the entire story is on the up & up, Wall St. bankers never broke any laws, and priests could NEVER have committed any crimes because they all took vows.

Wow!!

[arcimede$]

Alan, the conspiracy nuts will never accept that business follows rules and regs because it really is in their best interest. The number of potential whistle blowers in the casino industry is huge. But, the illogical, nut jobs will never go away.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob until you show me any evidence how can I believe you? Show me something.

Over on the Wizard's forum, I think the guys who came up with the conspiracy theory about biased dice did so after they found they couldn't "influence" the dice. It's a pretty imaginative excuse, isn't it? Oh... I'm throwing too many 7s because the dice are biased. Yeah, sure.

[Rob.Singer]

Alan, the conspiracy nuts will never accept that business follows rules and regs because it really is in their best interest. The number of potential whistle blowers in the casino industry is huge. But, the illogical, nut jobs will never go away.

Absolutely brilliant. Watch the IRS as they "follow the rules" because "it really is in their best interest"!
ROTFLMFAO!!!

[Rob.Singer]

Rob until you show me any evidence how can I believe you? Show me something.

Over on the Wizard's forum, I think the guys who came up with the conspiracy theory about biased dice did so after they found they couldn't "influence" the dice. It's a pretty imaginative excuse, isn't it? Oh... I'm throwing too many 7s because the dice are biased. Yeah, sure.

Other than the cases you already have read about, nothing I can show you would prove wrongdoing because the machines are not totally random by agreed upon design. Even so, it's no stretch at all to expect casino hanky panky with machines in order to make an even higher profit and/or percentage. The gaming industry doesn't exactly sit at the right hand of God.

[Alan Mendelson]

the machines are not totally random by agreed upon design.

What agreed upon design? Who agreed to what?

In video poker each card is supposed to have an equal chance of showing in the deal and in the draw each of the remaining cards is to have an equal chance. Do you have any evidence that shows this is not true?

[Rob.Singer]

What agreed upon design? Who agreed to what?

In video poker each card is supposed to have an equal chance of showing in the deal and in the draw each of the remaining cards is to have an equal chance. Do you have any evidence that shows this is not true?

We're back to the regs that are confidential but you don't believe exist again. Tell me this: have you even seen, written, or been involved in a Federal, State, County, or City Government Contract, and have you ever seen the multiple proprietary and/or confidential clauses contained within? Many have them Alan. And then, what in the world makes you want to believe that the casino business is any more ethical than the prostitution business, which is "against the law" in Clark County?

[Alan Mendelson]

We're back to the regs that are confidential but you don't believe exist again. Tell me this: have you even seen, written, or been involved in a Federal, State, County, or City Government Contract, and have you ever seen the multiple proprietary and/or confidential clauses contained within? Many have them Alan. And then, what in the world makes you want to believe that the casino business is any more ethical than the prostitution business, which is "against the law" in Clark County?

Come on Rob, do something that matters: tell us about the other gunmen at Dealey Plaza, find where Jimmy Hoffa is, uncover the studio used to broadcast man walking on the moon and why they forgot to put stars in the sky, and how about showing us the bodies of those aliens who crashed in the flying saucer?

[Rob.Singer]

Here's something that matters. We've got the family all coming up to Tahoe again the first week in July, so we're taking off today for a ride up the Oregon coast and an RV park we like that's right on the ocean. The nights in Carson City are very cool which is great, but the days are just a little warmer than we'd like. And after our get-together for the 4th we'll head over to the N. Calif coastline, where it's also on the comfortable side. So adios northern Nevada, and when we're in the Lake Tahoe area next month I hope to be able to put up some more winners. In the meantime, I'll be on the lookout for Jimmy Hoffa C ya in a month!

[redietz]

Quick comment -- for regnis. I believe 99.99% of all RNG's operate properly. I would estimate, at any given time, a very tiny number go rogue in and of themselves. I think it very possible that a similarly small number go rogue not in and of themselves, and that these would happen in specific conditions that most folks could figure out.

Points to consider -- if you are relying on tenths of percentage points to make your vp profit (as huge players sometimes do), then running into one rogue machine at any time flips you into the negative and means you are losing money. And you will never, ever know if a machine is rogue if it is intentionally adjusted.

I don't think these observations are flawed or illogical, but if there's a lack of logic here, please point it out.

Rob and I consider, given human nature/history/inclinations, that what's been suggested here has occasionally happened, and will occasionally happen going forward. Other folks argue that it has never happened and will never happen. I think the first position is eminently more reasonable. The second position requires an unhealthy dose of hubris.

[redietz]

For those who think the gaming commission keeps tabs on everything, let me repeat that they get around to checking each machine every 18-24 months, if they are on schedule, which they never are. And if their schedule is leaked by anyone (as in anyone) in the commission office, then it all becomes just a wink-wink shell game.

But you all knew that, right?

[regnis]

Quick comment -- for regnis. I believe 99.99% of all RNG's operate properly. I would estimate, at any given time, a very tiny number go rogue in and of themselves. I think it very possible that a similarly small number go rogue not in and of themselves, and that these would happen in specific conditions that most folks could figure out.

Points to consider -- if you are relying on tenths of percentage points to make your vp profit (as huge players sometimes do), then running into one rogue machine at any time flips you into the negative and means you are losing money. And you will never, ever know if a machine is rogue if it is intentionally adjusted.

I don't think these observations are flawed or illogical, but if there's a lack of logic here, please point it out.

Rob and I consider, given human nature/history/inclinations, that what's been suggested here has occasionally happened, and will occasionally happen going forward. Other folks argue that it has never happened and will never happen. I think the first position is eminently more reasonable. The second position requires an unhealthy dose of hubris.

Thanks Red-that's all I was looking for. So in theory, if 99% are indeed random, you can, with some degree of comfort, play as an AP. I thought from your earlier comments that you believed that a greater % of non-randomness was out there.

[redietz]

I think certain scenarios are more likely to result in you running into a non-reg situation, but playing 25-cent machines isn't one of them.

I place no faith in anecdotal evidence, but it does seem as if the high-stakes vp population is taking an unprecedented beating that appears to be way out on the end of the bell curve. I suspect Frank could have something to say about that, if he appeared from the internet ether.

[arcimede$]

Absolutely brilliant. Watch the IRS as they "follow the rules" because "it really is in their best interest"!
ROTFLMFAO!!!

Absolutely hilarious. Speedo thinks the IRS is a business. No wonder he is such a doofus.

However, the situation is perfect evidence of what I just said. Eventually, breaking the law comes back to bite you.