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Thread: John Grochowski writes about money management.

  1. #1
    New article by noted gaming author John Grochowski about money management including win/loss goals and raising your win/loss stops when you do win.

    http://grochowski.casinocitytimes.co...nagement-62117

  2. #2
    That kind of logical thinking will never fly here

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    That kind of logical thinking will never fly here
    You're right. After all, it's logical.

    BUT I wonder what Grochowski would say if we used the AP argument: "I have the advantage on every hand I play, why should I stop?"

  4. #4
    From the article:

    "Money management systems can’t change the house edges on the games. A slot machine that returns 90 percent of wagers to players is going to keep 10 percent in the long run no matter how disciplined the players’ approach. Your results in any one session can be good, bad or indifferent, but that’s all built into the odds of the game. Your money management approach has nothing to do with it."

    Gosh, exactly what I have been saying for how long now ... And then:

    "Jeff took it all in, and said, “I’ll pass that all on to Darcy, but I think she was hoping for something a little more magical that would make her win.”

    I laughed. Everyone wants that. But not losing too much is a start."


    "Magic" is exactly what I see claimed around here all the time. There is no magic.
    Last edited by arcimede$; 06-07-2013 at 06:20 AM.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You're right. After all, it's logical.

    BUT I wonder what Grochowski would say if we used the AP argument: "I have the advantage on every hand I play, why should I stop?"
    Why don't you ask him.

  6. #6
    Of course I'm going to point out the cliched phrase "noted gaming author." Rob's a "noted gaming author." I'm a "noted gaming author." There are a lot of those crawling around. Just because one is a "noted gaming author" doesn't mean anything in terms of the strength of an argument or position. But you guys knew that.

  7. #7
    I have to disagree with you, redietz. Grochowski is a noted gaming author. Rob happened to have written two books. I'm not sure what you wrote. And before you say it -- I certainly am not a gaming author, nor have I ever made the claim.

  8. #8
    John Grochowski is one of the best gaming authors in the business and he is on the money when it comes to random games. In terms of advantage play he would believe you should...why not write him and ask him?

  9. #9
    Okay, Frank. I sent him an email. Since he writes for you, please point out that I sent it to his "casinoanswerman" address.

    Here's what I sent:

    Hello Mr. Grochowski: I am one of your regular readers and I regularly refer to your book "Video Poker Answer Book" as a refresher before I head off to play.
    I have a question about your "money management" column: http://grochowski.casinocitytimes.co...nagement-62117
    If you were at a positive expectation game -- a game with a positive pay table -- and if you also had the benefits of cashback or some other comps from your play -- would the advice in your article still hold? Or, can players who are playing a positive expectation game with additional benefits ignore the need and advice for win/loss goals?
    How would you respond to a comment such as this: "I have the advantage on every hand I play, why should I stop?"
    Thank you.

  10. #10
    Alan-he will get back to you. I have previously corresponded with him at that e-mail on some issues here in Chicago.

  11. #11
    Wouldn't it be funny if grochowski's response to Alan was: "Say hi to Arci".

  12. #12
    Some of the advice he gave might still be applicable to positive games. For example, if you go on a trip it would still be reasonable to save some of the trip bankroll for multiple days. While it's unlikely a good APer would have insufficient funds to play as much as wanted, it is possible.

    Otherwise, it will be interesting to see what John says. One thing I can count on is it will be misinterpreted, just like the content of this article.

  13. #13
    Arc, I think the article is very clear. However, he did not mention APs or positive games... hence my question.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Arc, I think the article is very clear.
    Yes it was ... win/loss goals don't change the return of the game or anyone's results over time.

  15. #15
    And there is our difference Arc. While no one ever said win/loss goals don't change the return of any game, if you can manage to quit playing more sessions with profits than with losses you can improve your results over time. And if you are unable to grasp that I am very sorry.

  16. #16
    Alan, if the return doesn't change then your overall results will see the effect of that return. Sorry if you are unable to understand simple math. There is no magic.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Alan, if the return doesn't change then your overall results will see the effect of that return. Sorry if you are unable to understand simple math. There is no magic.
    How many times have we gone over this Arc? The expected return does not have to be your actual return. But you can't understand that. In fact Arc, I have never (repeat: NEVER) had the expected return of any game of video poker I have ever played in my life. I have played 9/6 Jacks or Better and I have NEVER had a session or a year where I finished with 99.54% of my bankroll. I have played 8/5 Aces and Faces and I have NEVER finished with a return of 99.2% of my bankroll. And at the game of craps, I have NEVER finished playing with 98.6% of the money I wagered on the passline. Never, never, ever.

  18. #18
    He'll get back to you. He is a great guy.

  19. #19
    Oh, you know, let me answer this. I think as an advantage player you have a total bankroll that you bet against. You do not use "sessions stakes" or "win/loss goals." Fatigue is the key variable here. In blackjack, fatigue can screw up your count. In craps, fatigue can screw up your shooting. So as a general guideline I will play blackjack for maybe 45-60 minutes and then take a break. In craps, three or four times with the dice and if I am not on I take some time off. These are guidelines which I will disobey at times.

    In games where I can't get an edge? I rarely play those but then I would use a "loss limit" to guide me.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    How many times have we gone over this Arc? The expected return does not have to be your actual return. But you can't understand that. In fact Arc, I have never (repeat: NEVER) had the expected return of any game of video poker I have ever played in my life. I have played 9/6 Jacks or Better and I have NEVER had a session or a year where I finished with 99.54% of my bankroll. I have played 8/5 Aces and Faces and I have NEVER finished with a return of 99.2% of my bankroll. And at the game of craps, I have NEVER finished playing with 98.6% of the money I wagered on the passline. Never, never, ever.
    No one said you'd get the exact return. You'd approach it over time. Win/loss goals cannot change the return of a game nor can they change the effect it has on your results. There is no magic.

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