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Thread: John Grochowski writes about money management.

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    No one said you'd get the exact return. You'd approach it over time. Win/loss goals cannot change the return of a game nor can they change the effect it has on your results. There is no magic.
    You continue to spew the same garbage. You keep saying youll approach the expected return over time. Well, I don't want to get the expected return over time. I want to pocket more money than what the expected return is... even if the expected return is 100.17% I want more than that. And the only way to do that is to quit when you have a profit that is more than the expected return.

    Again you keep whining that win goals don't change the expected return of a game. That's right they don't change the EXPECTED RETURN but they change the ACTUAL RETURN. And each time I cash out a win it does change my results. If I cash out with a $50 profit it has a different result than if I cash out a $25 profit.

    And you're right there is no magic. It is just simple bankroll management.

    Are you just a "math troll"??

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by FrankScoblete View Post
    Oh, you know, let me answer this. I think as an advantage player you have a total bankroll that you bet against. You do not use "sessions stakes" or "win/loss goals." Fatigue is the key variable here. In blackjack, fatigue can screw up your count. In craps, fatigue can screw up your shooting. So as a general guideline I will play blackjack for maybe 45-60 minutes and then take a break. In craps, three or four times with the dice and if I am not on I take some time off. These are guidelines which I will disobey at times.

    In games where I can't get an edge? I rarely play those but then I would use a "loss limit" to guide me.
    Frank what you write about card counting and "precision throwing" at craps is true. But we are talking about video poker here, for the most part, which I don't think you play. The roots of this discussion go waaaay back to the idea that even when you play a negative expectation game there are swings when you are ahead, and if you cash out at those "high points" in the swing you can be a winner even at a negative expectation game.

    It's also true at craps. Craps players seem to know when to color up and cash out after a big run with the dice... they don't stick around at the table to give the wins back. The "advantage video poker players" reject that thinking.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You continue to spew the same garbage.
    There's a better name for it. What I spew are called facts.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You keep saying youll approach the expected return over time. Well, I don't want to get the expected return over time. I want to pocket more money than what the expected return is... even if the expected return is 100.17% I want more than that. And the only way to do that is to quit when you have a profit that is more than the expected return.
    There is no way to do that. That is why I keep telling you there is no magic. Look, I wanted to win the $590 million powerball jackpot, wanting is not the same as getting. And, now you have John Grochowski also spewing the same story. He specifically told you that you can't get a better return. Why do you reference his article, ignore it and continue to believe in fairy tales?

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Again you keep whining that win goals don't change the expected return of a game. That's right they don't change the EXPECTED RETURN but they change the ACTUAL RETURN. And each time I cash out a win it does change my results. If I cash out with a $50 profit it has a different result than if I cash out a $25 profit.
    Except for the problem that you won't always have a profit. You will reach your loss limit many times and cancel out winnings just like happens if you don't have win/loss limits. Over time the actual return approaches the expected return. There is no magic.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    And you're right there is no magic. It is just simple bankroll management.
    Which doesn't change the return of the game. John just told you that more than once in this article.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Are you just a "math troll"??
    More like a "fact" troll.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Frank what you write about card counting and "precision throwing" at craps is true. But we are talking about video poker here, for the most part, which I don't think you play. The roots of this discussion go waaaay back to the idea that even when you play a negative expectation game there are swings when you are ahead, and if you cash out at those "high points" in the swing you can be a winner even at a negative expectation game.

    It's also true at craps. Craps players seem to know when to color up and cash out after a big run with the dice... they don't stick around at the table to give the wins back. The "advantage video poker players" reject that thinking.
    Alan, there is only one description for this ... pure nonsense. What you are saying is you can manufacture more winning hands than someone else. What magic informs the RNG (or dice) that you are using win/loss goals so that it will give you those extra winning hands?

  5. #25
    If Alan can't understand what Grachowski and Scoblete are saying, then there is no point in further discussion, Arci. I mean, Scoblete just said the classic -- loss goals help with negative expectation games. Other than that, when he's playing positive, fatigue dictates when he stops. That's what I've been saying in dozens of posts, but it goes against Alan's magic.

    Just let Alan be. Pixie dust is probably addictive.

  6. #26
    Good day for a break. I see a little common sense is required to help the AP's cope. Then I'll run over to help the new poster that I was e-mailed who needs expert advice.

    Redietz, there's a reason "AP" authors, infrequent vp players like yourself, and an Internet hack who just wants and needs to belong-like arci-find solace in TALKING about "advantage play" video poker instead of actually PLAYING it where they could post numerous winning hits like the rest of us do---and that reason is simply because they love the sound of "probability theory over time" but they know better than to try and make it work. Alan had a good question one day that you ducked. He asked what your purpose was in being here as a die hard AP who does who knows what, but who plays not a heck of a lot of vp....and at not for a heck of a lot of stakes, either. My guess is you came to learn from me. As for arci, I've said numerous times why he hangs around: his life is basically over except for this forum nonsense. It gives him the ability to make up any scenario he likes, then spew it, and then live it in a virtual fantasy. Name another saddled old man who spends endless hours scouring video poker forums of all things, then says as many stupid things about it as he does.

    Your comment about playing negative games is just as shallow as any misled AP's comments. Win & loss goals absolutely do make a huge difference in any term's results....if utilized consistently. For the past 15 years that's all I've done, and I know I've netted a much higher overall vp profit during that timeframe than all of the so-called AP's here, and more than any single AP anywhere. Those geniuses play a losing game, they believe "expectation" means more than actual results after the session is over, and they ALL hypocritically claim they "know" they'll "be OK somewhere down the road" because that's how "the math's supposed to work". Yet when anyone else goes in and plays a 99.9% game instead of a 100.1%er and says THEY expect to win, it's "magic"! That's why no one believes in the theory approach, and why most of you hardly play (unless you're like Dancer and have no problem making a public fool out of yourself by exposing how video poker has wrecked your personal life). You guys all want it both ways.

    The single largest hole in the AP "theory" about -EV games is in how you toot that "you can't win on them over time, but you can win any session"...then when my play strategy is employed, "you will win a lot of sessions, but the few big losses means you will lose overall--and all because you are playing a game that's 99.99% instead of 100.01%!" Completely absurd. If I can win a session playing a very advantageous method developed to WIN a session, why should that not be the case in the next one, the one after that, and the one after that etc.? And of course, conveniently left out of every AP's story is that the large "wins" actually do occur--and much more often that those large losses you theoretically want to wipe out the many small wins.

  7. #27
    Rob, to be honest, one reason that I hung out here is because your systems and spiel are very much of a piece with pseudoscientific presentations and theories of other kinds. In fact, your self-presentation and behaviors are so textbook that they're classic. I have always had a heavy interest in debunking the paranormal -- which, more often than not, involves applying actual math to real-life events.

    In Alan, you found the classic opportunity -- a journalist who likes to gamble and who combines some intellectual hubris with a contempt for math. It's the perfect synergy. That's why I asked about copying material from this site -- I could not write a better textbook than what goes on here.

    The material by you, Alan, and the occasional suspected sock puppet rivals "When Prophecy Fails" by Leon Festinger as a primer for cognitive dissonance theory and psychological commitment.

    This site is insular, and I suspect it'll stay that way, because that's how cults survive.
    Last edited by redietz; 06-08-2013 at 01:04 PM.

  8. #28
    redietz don't put me in the same camp using Rob Singer's strategy. I am not in his "camp" and I don't use his strategy. I do, however, use win goals and loss limits. I do respect the math of the game. But if the meter on the machine is showing a profit, as a man of free will, I have the ability to push the cash out button and leave.

    It's a funny thing... but I would estimate that there is a time in 90% of the sessions I play (if not more) that the meter shows a profit. And when I don't have a profit, my losses are limited. There is no challenge to the math here. It's just common sense. You pick up some money and you leave and you return another day to do it again.

    Using this "hit and run" approach no one is required to play a certain number of hours. I don't need to play 4 hours a day for comps, or to put thru XXX-number of dollars thru the machine for comps.

    What I do is sit down at a machine, decide what my limit is for the day, play and as is very often the case with 8/5 Aces and Faces or Bonus Poker, hit the cash out button. Why do you see that as an impossible dream?

    But if you stay at the machine too long, then the edge that the game has will whittle down the credits on your meter. And even on a game with a positive expectation you run the risk of hitting a bad streak that will take away your credits.

    But using a win goal allows you to leave with a profit. Sure, you might not hit the royal that was coming up on the next play. But you also might avoid another loss on the next play. As they say on Wall Street: bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

    Only APs can't grasp the concept that the credits on the meter or the chips in the rail are "your money" and you are not obligated to gamble it back.

    Now, if Frank Scoblete comes back to this forum and tells me that the strategy of leaving the craps table and taking the profit after a hot roll is not a good strategy I will be very surprised. This is exactly what I did when I made my quickie trip to Caesars over Memorial Weekend. I hit the craps table and cashed out a $600 profit over and above the $1,000 marker I took out and went on to play 8/5 Bonus for an additional $2800 profit, and I paid off my marker and came home with $3,400 profit.

    It's a nice "system." Does it work all the time? No. But what did I write in my original trip report: I had a $1,000 loss limit. I came back with a $3,400 profit which gives me three more trips with a $1,000 loss limit. I think over the next three trips I'll have at least one profitable session. Does it start to make sense to you yet?

    By the way, I'm not even talking about my two $20K royals, my two $4k royals, or my single 25-cent royal (cost for that royal was $40), all won on negative expectation machines. Go figure your "expected return" and then you can think about my "actual return."
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 06-08-2013 at 01:41 PM.

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    It's a funny thing... but I would estimate that there is a time in 90% of the sessions I play (if not more) that the meter shows a profit. And when I don't have a profit, my losses are limited. There is no challenge to the math here. It's just common sense. You pick up some money and you leave and you return another day to do it again.
    The problem is you do not cash out when you are ahead 5 or 10 credits. You will never come close to being at your win goal 90% of the time. You see, the higher the win goal the less often it will be reached ... and the more often you will end up at your loss limit.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    But if you stay at the machine too long, then the edge that the game has will whittle down the credits on your meter. And even on a game with a positive expectation you run the risk of hitting a bad streak that will take away your credits.
    Here is where you go off the rails. You accept that a machine is random yet you appear to believe it gives out better hands early in a session and then later starts to "eat" at your credits. If that was true the machines would not be random. So, do you or don't you believe in randomness? It appears you don't.

  10. #30
    Alan, redietz wants your approach to lose. That's all there is to it. He will never understand how often players get ahead and if they cashed out every time that happened, they'd continue to be ahead forever. Now add in my large bankroll/small profit requirement and increase in denomination & game volatility approach along with the special plays, and even the blind can see there would very easily be a gargantuan number of winning sessions. But even with all that, he wants it to be that playing a 99.99% game WILL NEVER allow you to win over any amount of time because it just isn't right! Get a $10 royal and a $33,000 profit in your first session, and redietz says the math will come by and take it all away--and MORE--in an unknown amount of time. But do that on a 100.01% machine, and you will forever stay ahead!

    No wonder he hangs around. He still hasn't figured it out.

  11. #31
    Arci and his love of theory.....now you know why he wanted to step out of having to live a REAL life, and into the rut he landed in. Only an idiot would claim math is the only way to beat the casinos, who by the way, thrive on it.

    If I started at dollars and went thru the $100 machines playing SPS, and QUIT WHEN $5 MINIMUM AHEAD, I would win at least 99% of my sessions. The AP rap on that would be "but gee Rob, nobody does that, and besides, when you lose you lose BIG!" And of course, they'd be selectively incomplete. For some reason, they just don't want to see any large winners along the way--some that are so large it would make their low-rolling heads spin.

  12. #32
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    The problem is you do not cash out when you are ahead 5 or 10 credits. You will never come close to being at your win goal 90% of the time. You see, the higher the win goal the less often it will be reached ... and the more often you will end up at your loss limit.
    How can you say this without knowing what my win goal is? Or what any player's win goal is?

    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Here is where you go off the rails. You accept that a machine is random yet you appear to believe it gives out better hands early in a session and then later starts to "eat" at your credits. If that was true the machines would not be random. So, do you or don't you believe in randomness? It appears you don't.
    Never did I say a machine gives out better hands early in a session. What I want you to consider is if you happen to have winners early in the session, why sit there and risk giving it back?

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Arci and his love of theory.....
    All this theory is good until you step back and realize that it's your money that you put in the slot and those credits on the meter represent your money that you can cash out. Then suddenly the theory about the "right way to play" doesn't matter as much anymore.

  14. #34
    I'm sorry but the thread was inadvertently locked and it is now re-opened.

  15. #35
    John Grochowski has responded to my email, and here it is, complete and unedited:

    Hi Alan,

    The win goals/loss limits advice applies only to negative expectation games, which means it applies to a vast majority of players. I'd put no such restrictions on players who have an edge on the house, provided bankroll is sufficient.

    I'd just add a couple of cautions. Advantage players in blackjack need to be wary of surveillance catching onto their edge. The longer you play, the more likely it is that you're going to be spotted. Counting cards is not illegal, but casinos are private clubs and can bar you from playing. One defense is to play short sessions and to move on after an hour or so, win or lose.

    And advantage players at any game need to be wary of fatigue. Regardless of whether you're a blackjack card counter, dice controller at craps or a video poker player who sticks to expert strategy at the best games, if you play when weary you're going to start making mistakes. Get some rest, and come back to the games refreshed.

    Good luck,

    John Grochowski

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    How can you say this without knowing what my win goal is? Or what any player's win goal is?
    You've commented on your play. I take you at your word.

    And, the key point to take home is the percentage of times you will achieve a win goal is inversely related to the size of the win goal. Hence, you could have a win goal of 5 credits and a loss limit of 100 credits. You might hit the win goal 95% of the time but it is wiped out by one loss.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Never did I say a machine gives out better hands early in a session. What I want you to consider is if you happen to have winners early in the session, why sit there and risk giving it back?
    Yes you did say that. It is inherent in believing a win goal will lead to better overall results. You MUST overachieve the frequencies of certain results in order to be ahead. If you continue to overachieve in those results you are not dealing with a random distribution.

    The idea of not giving back a win is perfectly fine. The problem is you will not see the situation arise enough to cancel out your losses over time. It's all based on a random distribution of cards. If you think you can beat a negative game with win goals you are also claiming the distribution is not random.

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by View Post
    The win goals/loss limits advice applies only to negative expectation games, which means it applies to a vast majority of players. I'd put no such restrictions on players who have an edge on the house, provided bankroll is sufficient.

    I'd just add a couple of cautions. Advantage players in blackjack need to be wary of surveillance catching onto their edge. The longer you play, the more likely it is that you're going to be spotted. Counting cards is not illegal, but casinos are private clubs and can bar you from playing. One defense is to play short sessions and to move on after an hour or so, win or lose.

    And advantage players at any game need to be wary of fatigue. Regardless of whether you're a blackjack card counter, dice controller at craps or a video poker player who sticks to expert strategy at the best games, if you play when weary you're going to start making mistakes. Get some rest, and come back to the games refreshed.

    John Grochowski
    Oh no, not another expert saying exactly what I have been saying for years. Obviously he doesn't understand how to apply the right pixie dust.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Arci and his love of theory.....now you know why he wanted to step out of having to live a REAL life, and into the rut he landed in. Only an idiot would claim math is the only way to beat the casinos, who by the way, thrive on it.
    So, casinos thrive on it to make profits, but the exact same math fails for players. If one can't see the illogical nonsense being spewed by this doofus they should avoid gambling altogether.

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Yes you did say that.
    come on Arc, when did I say that machines give out better hands early in a session. Look at what happened to me last night -- look at the Big Wins thread. I started out on a $2 machine, moved up to $5 Aces and Faces and then to $5 DDB where I hit the best win of the night. (Finished up $8,500 Arc... not bad for those negative expectation games. Oh... it was all on free play of $360.)

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Oh no, not another expert saying exactly what I have been saying for years. Obviously he doesn't understand how to apply the right pixie dust.
    I sent him a followup question and I hope he responds. Basically I asked him if he saw any need to protect his profits against a run of bad luck even on games a player might have an edge on. Really that is the issue. Do you protect your profits and throw caution to the wins because you have an "edge."

    What do you do, Arc? Do you protect your profits or would you willingly put them all back in the machine leaving yourself to hit the ATM the next time you play?

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