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Thread: John Grochowski writes about money management.

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    come on Arc, when did I say that machines give out better hands early in a session.
    You say it every time you claim win goals will make a difference in your results over time.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Look at what happened to me last night -- look at the Big Wins thread. I started out on a $2 machine, moved up to $5 Aces and Faces and then to $5 DDB where I hit the best win of the night. (Finished up $8,500 Arc... not bad for those negative expectation games. Oh... it was all on free play of $360.)
    Ah yes, winning one night proves that win goals work. It had nothing to do with the higher frequency of good paying hands. The fact is your session demonstrated the problem with win goals. Had you quit after your first $800 win you never would have hit the latter winners that led to more than 10x that amount.

    Over time all the various scenarios will play out. Win early ... win late. Win early ... lose late. Lose early ... win late. Lose early ... lose late. Don't confuse luck with knowledge.

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    So, casinos thrive on it to make profits, but the exact same math fails for players. If one can't see the illogical nonsense being spewed by this doofus they should avoid gambling altogether.

    Here's A hint to the "tested genius": If the math is working in the casino's favor--which it ALWAYS IS, barring some kind of stupid error--it cannot also work for the player. Is that too hard for a loner to take in....or is the lack of anything interesting to do any more with Olive Oil getting to you?

  3. #43
    Alan, you will not get arci to respond to your win last evening because first of all, it's too much money for him to comprehend (except on medical bills ) and next, because he doesn't want to believe it keeps happening to you over and over again, when his books and the Internet claims it's just not the right way.

    BTW, all Grocho did was repeat what Paymar wrote years ago, then re-published it a dozen times. I used Paymar as a standard bearer when I discovered the math books only talked theory but in reality, at the casinos, it does not work. Thank God I had the ability to think for myself after that fiasco.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Here's A hint to the "tested genius": If the math is working in the casino's favor--which it ALWAYS IS, barring some kind of stupid error--it cannot also work for the player. Is that too hard for a loner to take in....or is the lack of anything interesting to do any more with Olive Oil getting to you?
    The math that the casinos use is called probability theory and odds. The APer uses exactly the same math. Hence, they are identical. Only a complete doofus would claim the exact same math works differently for casinos than it does for players. Of course, Singer has proven many times he is incompetent in all phases of math. His claims are hilariously funny.

  5. #45
    Yup, I was right! Our "tested genius" ducked the issue again. And I was right on the money AGAIN when expecting to get under his skin with a little more of that greasy "olive oil"

    Here's the final hint: it's the same math, but it cannot and does not work the same way for both at the same time! Check it out on that slide rule of yours....

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Here's the final hint: it's the same math, but it cannot and does not work the same way for both at the same time! Check it out on that slide rule of yours....
    It doesn't work at the same time. APers don't play the negative games that the casinos put out there to make there profits. Only a complete doofus would think APers are playing negative games. APers play positive games only. The only reason casinos have put in positive games is the vast number of players still lose money due to poor play.

    This poor play the casinos factor in using theo which is based on the average player. APers get around this because they use expert play. Once again we can see that Singer is a complete doofus and doesn't even understand the most simple concepts of casino play.

    This is all based on simple arithmetic. The fact Singer is completely unable to do simple math tells us everything we need to know.

  7. #47
    Arc, you are the "master twister" of all statements and logic. If you care to look back what you will see is that last night, and on my quickie trip to Vegas over Memorial weekend when I was at Caesars for all of about six hours, I kept raising my stop loss as the winners kept coming, and I also did this when I hit my two $20,000 royals this year.

    I'm going to tell you something that you're not going to believe but you should because it is based on all machines being random:

    All machines provide winners and losers. The trick for each individual player is to recognize when to stay at the machine to either win more and lose more, which is what win/loss goals accomplish.

    Since no one can tell what the next hand will give you from an RNG you have to decide about playing that next hand based on the money you have won or lost and what your tolerance is for more losses. It does not challenge any math. It is not pixie dust. It is not magic. It is a decision that each player makes.

    If I were playing 25-cent video poker, win and loss goals would be of no consequence to me and like you my only limiting factor would be fatigue or hunger or restroom breaks. But when I'm betting $10 or $25 on a push of the button win/loss goals become mandatory.

    Arc, take your gambling budget next time and instead of playing your $1 One Eyed Jacks game, go play a $5 game of your choice and then tell me if your "AP mantra" still applies?

    And please don't come back telling me that I am playing "over my budget" at $5 because I could be playing $25 a hand but $5 VP is a level that gives me the most enjoyment as a recreational player.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    APers play positive games only.
    I sure do wish that Bob Dancer would for once write about winning at one of those positive games and positive promotions. All he has written about, it seems, are how much money he has lost chasing the positive plays for winning cars and for gift cards.

    I would like to believe Arc that when you are playing a positive game its like having your own personal ATM to withdraw the casino's cash from. But it is not like that at all. Even Bob Dancer loses at positive games and positive promotions. Gosh, if the king of video poker knowledge loses, what chance does a poor schmuck like me have? And Arc, when you tell me that you win perhaps one out of three sessions, what chance does a poor schmuck like me have?

    Well, I'll tell you my current position: I won enough from the Memorial Day quickie to Caesars to have three losing sessions of $1,000 each (my stop loss at $2), and I won enough last night to have eight more losing sessions of $1,000 each. That's 11 more sessions. Do you think I might turn a profit on at least one of those if I don't go crazy and lose more than I budget for?

  9. #49
    Alan, all arci can come back with is "Dancer wins oodles of these, only he sells enough of his vp-wares so he need not mention them at this time". But we all saw and can deduce what has really been going on, now that Dancer was forced to humiliate himself publicly, somehow, into submitting an obfuscation of the facts about his derailed personal life to his readers. Arci can relate.

  10. #50
    Rob, I became disillusioned with professional tournament poker players a few years ago when I met so many of them asking others to help them buy in to qualifiers for larger tournaments because they couldn't come up with the $50 for these satellites and they certainly didn't have the $550 and up to buy the actual tournament seat. And then I met the guys who made final tables at the WSOP but live in their cars at the big casinos here in LA and hope to scratch up enough money to get a nearby hotel room... and they need those casino comps to get a meal.

    I am also becoming disillusioned with all of the claims of "video poker winners" because it seems their claims are all dependent on 25-cent games at the Palms and frankly I can't live on 6 or 8 or 12 dollars an hour.

    I will never quit my day job to be an "advantage play" gambler. I promise you.

  11. #51
    Alan, you hang around long enough, and you can eventually get to the bottom of every advantage player claim out there. My book publisher's office manager in LV had always said she was a professional poker player--and maybe she was--yet the Burger King bags inside her collection of junk cars told me even more. And her boyfriend, now there's an AP that beats all odds. He claimed to be a successful mini-baccarat player who said he and his group had an edge at it whenever they played. But of course he went broke, lost his mind, and had a sex change just to complete the job.

    In my years of playing and training, I ran into so many "vp AP's" who were disillusioned by the concept, and I still do. My AP story is basically their AP story. You just don't sit at fpdw or any other "+EV" games for 5 hours or more a day with whatever cash back and comps, and not expect to see your bank account dwindle the more you play. The reason we hear so much about these people being "winners" is because that's what theory claims and that's what the authors sell in order to have a gaming bankroll. These other mosquitos like arci who latch on to this mythical adventure, only do so because that's the way they always thought it should be, and there's a virtual life inside there waiting for them, somewhere. Take it from me Alan, a highly educated/highly experienced intelligent vp player who's also always had the most favorable support system in place in the form of a loving family. It doesn't work. It sounds like it does when you read the books and on-line lies about it. But it just doesn't work. Or, you could listen to the plethora of failed and famous "AP's" who either had to leave LV for their own financial good--or stayed and ended up like Dancer or even that character Frank. IT DOESN'T WORK!

  12. #52
    So little time, so many lies. The only failed VP advantage player I know is Rob Singer. Of course he fantasizes about all the other players failing because his narcissistic personality has to believe he is superior. That is why he has always hated successful players like Dancer, Scott, myself, etc.

    PS. Successful APers don't play quarter FPDW. Only a complete doofus would believe that was the road to success. From this projection we now know this was the road Singer took, No wonder he went bankrupt.

  13. #53
    So far Arc, the "advantage players" of the world have some very poor public examples.

    There's a joke that makes the rounds at poker tables that goes like this:

    "How do you get a professional poker player to leave your house? Pay him for the pizza delivery."

    If there are advantage players who have a good living from their AP play at casinos then God bless them and good for them.

  14. #54
    Alan, you should correct that to "If there are advantage players who have a good living from their VIDEO POKER play TODAY, then God bless them and good for them." Twenty years ago, people could make a decent living playing video poker. But you know that, having interacted with Frank.

    The phrase "Advantage Player," despite Rob's improper usage, does not refer exclusively or even primarily to video poker players. It's the skewed expertise on this forum that makes it seem this way. If all someone knows is video poker, then -- on this forum -- all "advantage play" involves video poker. That is not correct.

    So please try to get the definitions right. "Advantage Play" does not refer exclusively to video poker. An "advantage player" does not exclusively play video poker.

  15. #55
    And then I met the guys who made final tables at the WSOP but live in their cars at the big casinos here in LA. At least they're not homeless.

  16. #56
    redietz, I can't include Frank anymore in the ranks of "advantage players" because he really didn't play. He was an employee and a paid adminstrator who sometimes played on a team. But because in fourteen years of playing that he did not bet his own money and was betting only the money put up by "investors" in teams I can't include him as an "advantage player."

    On the other hand, because he played video poker with other people's money, and never risked any of his own, and was paid based on success only and never feared a financial loss when he lost, you might call him the "ultimate advantage player"!!

    Even I am an "advantage player" of sorts. I will take advantage of free play, and comps, and cash offers, and bonuses. Everyone who joins a players club at a casino is an advantage player to some degree.

    Of course what we'd all like to see is someone who makes a "real living" from advantage play exclusively. Do you know anyone like that today?

  17. #57
    Alan, you don't even know most of the VP APers. Their goal is to remain off the radar. I've never worried about it because I was always a low roller. Dancer/Scott and a few others decided to create a name to make money in other forms. Of course, they did not use their real names.

  18. #58
    People who win don't want to be king of the frat or make the six o'clock news. They are not going to tell you they win, so you're not going to be able to identify them. The fact Rob shows disdain for how people dress, what they drive, or what they eat (Leno likes In-and-Out Burger) is really quite funny. In this business, the more you think you see, the less you actually know.

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    People who win don't want to be king of the frat or make the six o'clock news. They are not going to tell you they win, so you're not going to be able to identify them. The fact Rob shows disdain for how people dress, what they drive, or what they eat (Leno likes In-and-Out Burger) is really quite funny. In this business, the more you think you see, the less you actually know.
    Which is why I'd be very suspect of Mr. Dancers claims.

  20. #60
    Very true Red and Qua. When I recently won that Pick 6, I called the manager and arranged to pick up a check in her office without any fanfare etc.. All the mooches at the OTB need to think I am a loser because I am also an easy touch when they are "borrowing" (I use the term loosely cause they never pay me back). So I never cheer for winners or give any public display of the amounts that I am betting or the amounts of wins (or losses).

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