The Undeniable Truth Continues On....

[Rob.Singer]

Today I had conversations with the casino manager of the Palms as well as with the slot director at the Peppermill. My reason for calling them was initiated by reading the continuous claims by Dancer on vpFREE about how casino promotions are such a "lucrative" part of every AP's "approach to winning". This makes no sense to me, which prompted me to make the calls. I have thr Palm's CM's cell number and the other guy's home phone, so it was no problem chatting with them about this.

I don't need to go thru all of this in detail because it's so much common sense. But the main point, as you may imagine, is that these theoretical 2% to maybe 4% "promos" are constantly put in place on a regular basis in order to rope in the most bankroll-capable players, who are always claiming they somehow have an "edge" playing one of these for 24 hours--a spec in time vs. the "long-run". That would be someone like Dancer, and make no mistake, the casinos offering these things know 90%+ of the players they expect to respond--many of whom are directly invited in to play them.

The bottom line is, as you should already know, the only ones who win anything on these promos are those who have very good luck in the comparatively short amount of time they're playing them. Most lose their asses, which makes complete sense since there is NEVER a shortage of +EV creations to play. Further, if ANYONE were either an overall or consistent winner on these offers, THEY WOULD NO LONGER BE ALLOWED TO PLAY THEM!!

So, what does that tell you my friends? DO YOU GET IT YET?? Or do you prefer to remain in denial about this, and choose to look at a video poker-induced divorced loser as your ultimate vp hero? Think about that.

[arcimede$]

Singer's jealousy of successful VP players rears its ugly head yet again. By now most people should have noticed Singer's obsession with quality VP players. All due to his own failure and subsequent bankruptcy.

[Alan Mendelson]

Let's look at what Rob just said and use a microcosm example of it: a video poker tournament. You only play, for example, two ten minute sessions and highest score wins. You could be the greatest, most knowledgeable VP player in the world but in that short span of time if you don't get the big hands you won't win the tourney. This is short term play to the extreme and it's all luck. I played only one VP tournament and will never do it again. It was a DDB game and I don't think I had more than one full house in each session -- my top hand -- and that was rotten luck. The winner of the tournament had a royal -- right place, right time, all luck.

[Rob.Singer]

As I said Alan, it's just simple common sense. The first thing to do here is ignore arci's obvious Olive Oil-inspired rant. Then, think of all the promos Dancer says he plays in, and then read his columns and you'll find the majority of them have been at the Palms, South Point, and the M over the past 3 years. You'll also continually discover how he claims to be winning a bundle each year playing these things, yet the casino manager at one of them just reitterated that NO OVERALL OR CONSISTENT WINNER would ever be invited or allowed to play there again. So which makes more sense--the truth....or what arci wants to believe to help his own AP-fantasy survive just a little longer?

The AP rant about what you just said would be that these "experts" would alter their game strategy to play in vp tournaments. Of course, what they're really doing is incorporating some of the same special plays that I utilize in my strategies. They're smart enough to know that risk = reward, and when you have a goal (in this case, to score more points than the next guy) you have a chance. Otherwise, you're in the math-laced hands of the casinos.

[redietz]

So let's pin this down, Rob. Was it the casino manager at the Palms or the slot manager at the Peppermill who said, "No overall or consistent winner would be invited or allowed to play there again?" I like to get my facts straight in case I bump into one of them.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob there is no question that in a tournament situation you go for the extreme big winners, including royals, and drop the small paying hands. Yes tournaments are ideal for your special plays. In fact a long time ago on the LVA forum I suggested that your special plays were ideal for tournament play. Even Dancer talks about trying to "force Royals" in tournaments.

Heck, we do the same thing in craps tournaments. You max out the "crazy crapper" bets to get big points and conservative play in a craps tournament won't get you anywhere.

Rob: repackage your special plays as a "tournament guide for poker tournaments and special plays"

[redietz]

I've played a couple dozen video poker tournaments. Everybody uses "special plays" to take shots at royals because the prize money is skewed to the top couple places (like live poker tournies). You've usually gotta hit a royal for a top three spot. That's no secret -- Dancer and Scott mentioned it decades ago. If the prize money were evenly distributed, you wouldn't see it.

And I'd still like to know who said that no overall or consistent winner would be invited. Was it the Palms casino manager or the Peppermill slot manager?

[Rob.Singer]

So let's pin this down, Rob. Was it the casino manager at the Palms or the slot manager at the Peppermill who said, "No overall or consistent winner would be invited or allowed to play there again?" I like to get my facts straight in case I bump into one of them.

Ask them, or you'll forever be encased in the world of theory.

[redietz]

Well, since I rarely get to the Peppermill, I suppose asking the Palms manager would solve the mystery as either he said it or he didn't. If he says he didn't, then (on your word) we'll just attribute it to the Peppermill slot manager. I will quote you on this, Mr. Argentino. Thanks for the info.

[Alan Mendelson]

redietz, let me play devil's advocate here: do you really think that any casino manager will tell you if he had a conversation with any other player, or would discuss the wins, losses, gaming habits, or any other information about a player?

I don't know if what Rob said is true, a fabrication, and exaggeration or just huff-and-puff but I wouldn't want to be the one to approach a casino manager to ask him about it.

[redietz]

Oh, I already have.

[Rob.Singer]

redietz, let me play devil's advocate here: do you really think that any casino manager will tell you if he had a conversation with any other player, or would discuss the wins, losses, gaming habits, or any other information about a player?

I don't know if what Rob said is true, a fabrication, and exaggeration or just huff-and-puff but I wouldn't want to be the one to approach a casino manager to ask him about it.

Nope Alan, as I said no names were mentioned. That's silly.

[quahaug]

Arci, since your the go to guy for "ap" info, is it true that an ap would even play in a tourny and change their approach thereby lowering the games ev?

[redietz]

Anyone who knows what they're doing in a video poker tournament, because the prize money is skewed to the top couple of slots, will go for "the big hands."

"The math" clearly points you in that direction. You can do the math. If, historically, you need a royal to finish in the top three of a tournament with a couple of hundred players, then you go for big hands. The reason is that the prize money is top-heavy, just as in a live poker tournament. The prize distribution dictates, mathematically, the decisions you make.

[quahaug]

Anyone who knows what they're doing in a video poker tournament, because the prize money is skewed to the top couple of slots, will go for "the big hands."

"The math" clearly points you in that direction. You can do the math. If, historically, you need a royal to finish in the top three of a tournament with a couple of hundred players, then you go for big hands. The reason is that the prize money is top-heavy, just as in a live poker tournament. The prize distribution dictates, mathematically, the decisions you make.

I didn't ask you. Wise guy. (kidding)

[quahaug]

Actualy I don't get why you would play any different in a tournament because playing for the royal or whatever would lead to more losing sessions. What about a progressive royal and team play? Do they also alter their strategy therefore lowering their ev? Makes no sense to say your trying to win a particular session on the one hand and your life play is one continuous session on the other.

[quahaug]

Maybe video poker pros don't play in tournaments.

[Alan Mendelson]

I remember reading an article by Bob Dancer about strategy for video poker tournaments. He talked about the importance of "pushing" for royals by altering your holds to go for the big wins.

[redietz]

Guys, just do the math. You have x number of players. You have 30 minutes of play, playing at top speed of maybe 1000 hands an hour (which can be sustained for short periods).

The key is that the prize money for a tourney with 20 prizes might go: 1st--$2500; 2nd --$1000; 3rd -- $500; 4th-10th -- $50; 11th-20th--$25.

In the tourneys in which I play, odds are usually that a royal will happen not quite two times, so those will be the people getting the big money. The other prizes aren't great, so some people even blow off the bottom prizes and just launch for high-value hands all the time. One would think I'd eventually see a tourney with no royals, but it hasn't happened yet.

A losing session doesn't matter, quahaug. It's a tournament, for God's sake. You're not playing with your own money. You can't lose anything unless you paid to get in the tournament, and that's a flat fee. The tournaments I've been in were all invites.

If you can't figure out the difference between this and live play, and why you wouldn't do this for live play, well, you are on your own. Not my job to teach people how to win -- that's Rob's job, remember?

P.S. Quahaug, I actually do appreciate the Wise Guy reference. Somebody's doing his homework.

[arcimede$]

Arci, since your the go to guy for "ap" info, is it true that an ap would even play in a tourny and change their approach thereby lowering the games ev?

A free VP tournament always has a positive EV. You can't lose. However, I don't know of APers that would pay to play in a tournament unless the prize fund made it a positive play. And yes, you should change the strategy to have a better chance at winning. This has been know for a couple of decades now.